Last week was very fun from a viewer perspective. I didn’t feel like throwing money at the Million Dollar events. Those psychotically huge fields make it almost as unlikely to win as the lottery. It is particularly tough when there are some professional gamblers out there registering for the event as many as 845 times. Obviously there are more than 845 possible combinations of players, but when you break it down you can instantly eliminate a sizeable portion of those combinations. So let us discuss this multi-entry strategy (I’m going to call it the Lazlo Hollyfeld Gambit for fans of the 80’s movie Real Genius).
You need 1 TE, 1 QB, and 1 DEF. This time of the season there will always be multiple teams on bye. That eliminates some of the possibilities. There are also rotten teams such as Jacksonville and Oakland that will likely not be who you choose those three spots from. So in all likelihood you are looking at a max of 25 TEs, QBs, and DEFs to choose from just amongst those three positions without taking into account the two RBs, three WRs and FLEX players you need to fill out your roster. If you assume that most teams have no more than three impact WRs and two impact RBs that means that any given week there will be a player pool of up to 160 players to choose from when filling those six slots. Again if you throw out bye weeks and Thursday game players than maybe you lose 30 of those players from that likely pool.
All together you are looking for a nine player combination out of roughly 205 likely players. Even if you can remove half of those options as realistically unlikely, you are still left with a huge nine player combo out of 103 possible players. My head hurts thinking about the math involved in that calculation.
Lazlo Hollyfeld won a large portion of the prizes in the Frito Lays contest he entered a ridiculous number of times (for free). I believe that the guy who entered the DK contest 845 times failed to cash (at $27 per pop). Let that sink in for a bit. Not to mention the amount of time he spent entering all of those lineups (assuming they were all different). You can also win for free as a huddle member sign up for our special freeroll at FantasyScore.com. While there signing up for the freeroll, you should also make a deposit and use the special code “huddle50” for a 50% matching bonus up to $250 on your initial deposit!
So once again this week I am not going to be wasting my funds chasing the million dollar hit, I’d rather just keep doubling up my investments like a true grinder playing 50-50s and Multipliers. Let the thin air crowd degenerates throw their endless re-buys at these huge contests and then maybe sneak in a couple lower limit GPPs which will likely have some overlay to them. This overlay will be paid for out of the entry fees of these guys losing $27 a pop 845 entries at a time. So ultimately you are winning their money anyways!
Prices this week are crazy, never before have I found myself ranking multiple occurrences where I gave a player all three of a Green, Red, and Blue rating based on what the sites demanded financially for them. FanDuel has only eight QBs worth their price tag but they have quite a few top heavy serviceable values at RB and WR. DraftKings has all their price tags lower than usual with QB being the only position that appears to have some shy away players. Fantasy Score is extremely top heavy with values this week, and you can land premium RBs and QBs for low bucks. The other trend I noticed is that at QB and RB the second tier is much more at price point or overpriced on each site except DK.
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