Predictions Summary Projections by Position Projection Team Boxes

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Prediction: CIN 20, IND 30 (Line: IND by 3)

The 3-1-1 Bengals got caught without A.J. Green while watching Cam Newton suddenly resume his role as leading rusher for the Panthers. Now the bengals are only a half game ahead of the Ravens and only 1-1 in road games. The 4-2 Colts are on a four game winning streak and climbed to the top of the AFC South after a 0-2 start.

The Bengals won 42-28 when the Colts visited in 2013.

Heading to play in Indianapolis is not time for the Bengals to be without their two starting wide receivers and they just gave up in Marvin Jones and placed him on injured reserve. This is an offense predicated on the run and that remains just as formidable but if the Colts get a lead, the Bengals will be challenged to play keep up. An similarly important game against the Ravens lies on the other side of this matchup along with two other home games.

QUARTERBACK : Andy Dalton runs a different offense this year and the commitment to the run is evident when the Bengals have just one loss and yet Dalton only threw six touchdowns over five games. His yardage has been over 300 twice this year but he’s also been as low as 169 yards with no score against the Titans.

Dalton passed for 275 yards and three touchdowns on the Colts last year.

RUNNING BACK : This is one of the best rushing units in the NFL and it only employs two backs. Giovani Bernard totals four touchdowns this year and usually tops 100 total yards when he receptions are factored in. Jeremy Hill is the heavy in the equation and scored three times. His yardage is generally on the low side but he scores more often than not. No doubt facing the passing attack of the Colts, the Bengals will want to run and consume the clock as much as possible and that plays into both Bernard and Hill this week.

The Bengals combined for 147 rush yards and two scores by the running backs versus the Colts in 2013.

WIDE RECEIVER : With Marvin Jones gone and A.J. Green himself saying he is not coming back this week, the Bengals again have to rely on Mohamed Sanu and Brandon Tate. Sanu comes off a career best 120 yards and a score on ten catches and he was targeted 15 times. Sanu is not going to be a surprise this week to be sure. Tate scored as well on the Panthers but only managed four receptions for 38 yards. The Bengals signed Greg Little this week but he’s unlikely to be a factor in any game much less this one. This is a week that missing Green is going to be significant.

Green settled for six catches for 72 yards and one score on the Colts last time. Marvin Jones (3-60) also scored.

TIGHT END : Tyler Eifert is still out until week ten and would have been a nice weapon for this week. Jermaine Gresham did step up to six catches for 68 yards against the Panthers but has not scored or done much else all year. His previous high game was only 25 yards.

Gresham scored once on his five receptions for 41 yards versus the Colts last season.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: The Colts have only given up eight passing scores over six games played and three of those went to Peyton Manning in the season opener. Dalton is without many of his weapons and will do well enough to throw for his normal one score. Both Bernard and Hill should have the easier time against a defense that already yielded seven rushing touchdowns and decent yardage. But that gets split up and shared and neither back is likely to have a big game. Arian Foster was the only runner with more than 79 yards or one score on the Colts and he shares nothing. Bernard is a good start this week and has a nice chance of a score. Hill is riskier but will be involved. Dalton is running out of targets and Sanu will be the focus of the secondary this week. That depresses the outlook of all Bengals other than the running backs.

The Colts are on a four game winning streak and looking like a definite player in January. The defense let up a bit in Houston once the Colts got a big lead but no matter – between an opportunistic defense and Andrew Luck this is a hard team to beat.The next two weeks may be as tough as it gets for the rest of the year.

QUARTERBACK : No doubt the Andrew Luck owner in every league is smiling. He comes off a three touchdown effort over the Texans – his fifth 300 yard game on the season. Luck was already an elite quarterback but this season he is pulling ahead of all quarterbacks with no signs of letting up. Luck merely has 17 passing scores on the season already. That pace results in 45 scores on the year not counting what he rushes in.

Luck threw for 326 yards and four touchdowns against the Bengals last year.

RUNNING BACK : Trent Richardson is hardly fantasy gold but at least he can score the occasional touchdown to save his fantasy value. He is still rarely good for more than 60 yards in a game and has never been more than just a flex play. Ahmad Bradshaw is slightly better with yardage but never scores a rushing touchdown. But he already has five receiving touchdowns over the last five games and offers at least moderate consistency each week thanks to his role as a receiver.

WIDE RECEIVER : Since Hakeem Nicks has yet to really matter, this remains a two man show. Reggie Wayne seems to show up better in home games and was consistent around 70 yards per week but then dropped to only four catches for 35 yards in Houston while T.Y. Hilton went nuts with nine catches for 223 yards and his first touchdown on the season. Hilton started the season slowly but was good for 80 + yards in each of the last four games.

Hilton was held to only two catches for seven yards by the Bengals last year and this was after Wayne was gone. Da’Rick Rogers (6-107) and Lavon Brazill (3-53) both scored twice in that game.

TIGHT END : Andrew Luck loves his tight ends but how that shakes out in a game is not always easy to guess. Dwayne Allen is the main receiver with four touchdowns and usually 40 or 50 yards per week. But Coby Fleener scored three times including just last Sunday when Allen was held out of the endzone for the first time in four games. Allen is the better bet to do the most, but it doesn’t always happen that way.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: The Bengals have been good against the pass but mostly because they faced lesser quarterbacks than Luck who is currently #1. The Bengals are weak versus tight end so you can use your Allen/Fleener coin to determine which one catches the touchdown. The Bengals come off a 75 minute game last week, are without much of their offense and have to play the Ravens next week. There is no reason to bench Luck, Bradshaw, Wayne, Hilton or Allen. Richardson is always a reach.

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