Predictions Summary Projections by Position Projection Team Boxes

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Prediction: KC 24, SD 27 (Line: SD by 4)

The 2-3 Chiefs are only 1-2 in away games and head to divisional rival San Diego where the 5-1 Chargers are on a five game winning streak, somehow starting their year out with a loss against the Titans. The Chargers won six of the last seven and the most recent four in a row. They won 27-24 when the Chiefs visited last year. They also won in Kansas City 41-38.

Just when it seems that the Chiefs turned the corner with their big wins over the Dolphins and Patriots, they lose to the 49ers with questionable play calling and disappointing performances. With a bye to figure it out, the Chiefs still catch no break with this matchup up next. It is safe to say that the Chiefs will remain a rush-first offense and that at least for now, HC Andy Reid won’t abandon his star running back so quickly.

QUARTERBACK : Though he is light on yardage and has yet to throw for more than 255 yards in any game, Alex Smith is exceeding expectations with scoring. He’s thrown for eight touchdowns in just the last thee weeks including three each versus the Dolphins and Patriots. That’s still a little low for fantasy purposes realizing that twice he had one or zero touchdowns in a game with marginal yardage.

Smith threw for 294 yards and three scores on the Chargers last year in the home meeting but Chase Daniel had to start in week 17 in San Diego when he only passed for 200 yards and one score.

RUNNING BACK : The backfield is split and the results – unlike every other time teams do this – have been spectacular. Jamaal Charles turns in 100+ yards in each healthy game lately and scored three times in the home meeting with the Patriots. Knile Davis also turns in 100+ total yards over the last couple of games. That’s always going to depend on the defenses faced but this rushing attack has been getting better each week. This is why Smith has not been throwing for that much yardage. HC Andy Reid caught much flak about limiting Jamaal Charles to only 15 runs against the 49ers when he gained 80 yards in the process.

Charles ran for 115 yards on 14 runs for two scores in his only meeting with the Chargers last year.

WIDE RECEIVER : This is still mostly a fantasy wasteland. No wideout caught a touchdown so far this year. No wideout has managed more than one game over 50 yards. Dwayne Bowe ended with five catches for 81 yards versus the visiting Pats but otherwise has averaged under 40 yards per game. Donny Avery has been even worse.

Avery (4-91) and Bowe (5-51) both scored on the Chargers last season.

TIGHT END : The lone bright spot in the passing game has been Travis Kelce who scored in each of the last three games. His yardage has tended to be low in away games, but his place in the red zone offense is growing.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: The Chargers at home have not allowed more than two passing scores or 254 pass yards and that just about defines Alex Smith anyway. But the Chargers have held opposing runners to only one rushing touchdown though four scored as receivers. This is a safe start for Charles who will see extra work to make up for the 49ers loss. Kelce faces a defense that has given up just one score to the position and marginal yardage. He a risk to expect a score again this week. Amazingly none of the Chiefs wideouts have managed a score this year.

The Chargers are in the driver’s seat for the division for now but on the other side of this matchup is a trip to Denver that will go far in determining who will represent the NFC West in the playoffs. the Chargers defense has quietly been formidable and the offense continually reinvents itself with new players. The Chargers find it over the next two weeks if they really are a contender or not.

QUARTERBACK : Philip Rivers continues to post big stats and yet arguably has no stars. He threw for three scores in four of the last five games and in every home game. His worst home showing was 284 yards and three touchdowns against the Seattle Seahawks. Despite all the yardage and 15 touchdowns on the season, Rivers still has just two interceptions and no fumbles.

Rivers passed for three touchdown in both meetings with the Chiefs last year and passed for 229 yards in the home meeting.

RUNNING BACK : Branden Oliver could be a poster child both for the dynamic nature of the NFL this year and the resilience of the Chargers. Ryan Mathews remains out with a knee issue, Danny Woodhead was lost for the year, Donald Brown proved he could not successfully change teams and yet here the undrafted rookie is posting back-to-back 100 yard rushing efforts with a touchdown in each but a touchdown as a receiver versus the Jets. In just two weeks, Oliver has been better than any back in San Diego this year. Even when Matthews returns, Oliver will retain a significant role.