Predictions Summary Projections by Position Projection Team Boxes

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Prediction: NYJ 10, NE 30 (Line: NE by 10)

This is the Thursday night game but the set-up doesn’t make it look like much more than a Patriot win and three hours of discussion about where Rex Ryan will be next year. The Patriots won 13-10 when the Jets visited last year.

The Jets are on a five game losing streak and it appears that everything that was wrong in 2013 is still wrong in 2014. Upgrading wit Eric Decker alone did not solve anything and the rushing effort still plods along. This is a team that is plenty good enough to win a game since four of the losses came within one touchdown but nothing is improving and at best it seems the Jets will be lucky enough to even pick up two or three home wins before the season is over.

QUARTERBACK : Rex Ryan should have a necklace made that carries a picture of Geno Smith since he’ll be the albatross around his neck until the bitter end. Smith is hardly a “bad” quarterback. He does score in almost every game and can toss for bigger yards against the weaker secondaries but he’s a lock for one or more interceptions and simply doesn’t have to tools to mount a comeback. He’s average at best on a team that needs more.

The Jets never passed for more than 233 yards against the Pats last year. Smith had no scores in the home meeting.

RUNNING BACK : This rushing offense just gets worse. Chris Ivory had the initial look of a runner who might be fantasy relevant if he did not have to share with Chris Johnson. Now he’s not even that with only 44 yards in San Diego and then 21 yards at home versus the Broncos last week. Johnson has a similar decline to his production and all combined this backfield has only three rushing touchdowns.

WIDE RECEIVER : It would be unfair to say the team did not provide Smith with new weapons this year because Eric Decker has made a difference and od the six passing scores, Decker caught three. His yardage has yet to top 54 yards in a game but the same is true of the others and they never score. This is a weak unit led by a wideout who is an ideal #3, not a #1 wide receiver. There is no reason to expect any improvement.

TIGHT END : The lone bright spot is with Jace Amaro who dropped nearly everything in training camp but has come around quickly enough to be the leading receiver against the Broncos. Amaro ended with ten catches for 68 yards and his first NFL touchdown last Sunday. He’s not reliable for more than 50 yards per game but at least he is progressing and on the right track.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: The Patriots always play the Jets tough. They are allowing two or three passing scores to opponents but rarely much yardage and Geno Smith is unlikely to post much anyway. Running backs that visit have been topping out around 60 yards and none have scored against them. This shapes up to be another lower scoring effort by the Jets who do not travel well. This will be only the second road game since week two and the last one was the shutout in San Diego. At best the only fantasy plays from here are Ivory as a flex, Decker as a weaker WR3 and Amaro if you suddenly have no options at tight end.

The Patriots appear to have gotten good rather quickly. After opening the season with a month of marginal offense, the Patriots are back to scoring like it was the glory days again. The timing is nice since they face a three game home stretch before their week ten bye. Brady may be back from the brink of obscurity but losing Stevan Ridley is not going to help the offense.

QUARTERBACK : Hard to believe that Tom Brady needed to take a month off with one score and marginal yardage every week and then suddenly he scored six touchdowns in just two games with 292 and 361 pass yards. The defenses he faced were above average as well so the best reason for the turnaround must be that Rob Gronkowski healthy again. In both wins he was a major factor.

Brady only passed for 185 yards and one score when the Jets visited last year.

RUNNING BACK : Stevan Ridley is done for the season with tears to his ACL and MCL. Since he is already a free agent in 2015, he’s likely gone from the Patriots. How he will be replaced won’t be certain until the game is played and even then it may change weekly – this is the Patriots backfield. Brandon Bolden is the immediate backup but plays a big role on special teams as well. They could introduce the rookie James White into the mix but rookies don’t normally take a lead role in the offense. Shane Vereen may see an uptick in use but remains more the receiving back and his history says he’ll just get injured if used too much.

The best assumption is that Ridley is replaced by Bolden and then we’ll know more next week.

WIDE RECEIVER : Despite the revolving door at wideout for the last few years, the Patriots have finally settled on relying on just two players and neither are named Amendola. Julian Edelman remains the possession receiver who never scores but gets about a half dozen catches per week. And Brandon LaFell has already taken over the #2 spot and scored three times over just the last three games including over 95 yards in each of the last two road games. He gets half of the targets that Edelman does and yet producing more.

TIGHT END : The two recent wins both have something in common. They suddenly made big use of both tight ends. Rob Gronkowski and Timothy Wright. Gronk was chugging along with around 40 yards per game but then laid down 100 yards and one score against the Bengals and then 94 yards in Buffalo. Wright rarely takes to the field and plays in less than a quarter of the plays but he scored once in each of the last two. His 85 yards on five catches was a coming out of sorts against the Bengals and then versus the Bills he had just one catch for one yard – touchdown.

The offense works best with a busy Gronk and he’s been a difference maker for two straight weeks. Wright is still far less than what Aaron Hernandez once was, but scoring two weeks in a row is a step in the right direction.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: The Jets are teetering on an implosion right now and how they respond in a road game is harder to gauge. They’ve consistently been weak against the pass and never allowed fewer than two passing touchdowns. Scarier still – they have allowed seven touchdowns to tight ends in just the last four games including two each for Martellus Bennett, Antonio Gates and Julius Thomas. The Jets were one of the best rushing defenses but have been dinged for over 100 yards by Branden Oliver and Ronnie Hillman in just the last two weeks. Consider Brady, LaFell, Edelman, Gronk and even Wright as viable starters this week. Vereen is never more than a flex play with reception points included. It is still early to expect much from Boldin.

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