BUMPS, BRUISES AND BOWOUTS

We’re entering the midpoint of the fantasy season and playoffs are only five or six weeks away. But what we’ve seen this past week are several teams almost inexplicably playing well below their normal level. It happens every year. Between weeks seven and thirteen, there will be trap games where bad teams win because their opponent gets caught trying to mail in a win. Maintaining a high level of focus, commitment and motivation every week is tough and almost every team will have one or two “trash games” where their effort and performance takes a temporary dive.

Player performances naturally decrease in such weeks and it more typically occurs in road games. This week the Falcons, Bengals, Panthers, Browns and Bears were much less than the sum of their parts. Next week there will be other teams but forecasting which ones are challenging unless a team is coming off a big, emotional win and seems ripe for a letdown.

LOOKING UP

Tre Mason is the new Zac Stacy. He never played until week six when he gained 40 yards on five runs against the 49ers versus eight carries for 17 yards by Stacy. By week seven, the veteran never touched the ball while Mason rushed 18 times for 85 yards and one touchdown in the win over the Seahawks. Benny Cunningham remains as the receiving back and scored once on his five receptions for 46 yards but the midseason rushing torch has been passed to Mason. He’ll be challenged with four road games in the next five weeks but he’s bringing Heisman-contender talent to the table.

Ryan Tannehill comes off his third straight game with two passing scores and he exceeded expectations with 277 yards in Chicago. That gives him a three game average of 266 yards and an upcoming schedule that faces the Jaguars, Chargers, Lions, Bills, Broncos and Jets.  Tannehill is also adding 30+ rushing yards per week. If he’s still on your waiver wire, he’s worth a grab and stash if you have the room.

By now the Jaguars have spun through their entire depth chart looking for a decent running back but the search is finally over. Not only is Denard Robinson the final back on the active roster, but he ran for 127 yards and one score on 22 carries in the win over the Browns while Storm Johnson only managed 16 yards on six runs. This was the first time that Robinson was allowed more than nine carries in a game and the converted ex-quarterback showed more speed to the edge than any of his predecessors. He’s gained a bigger workload to be sure but that is tempered with his next opponents being the Dolphins, Bengals and Cowboys. But anytime a back can move into a fantasy relevant position at mid-season, he needs to be owned. He’s also ruined any possible value for both Johnson and Toby Gerhart.

Kirk Cousins was benched at halftime of the game against the Titans after throwing for only 139 yards and one interception. Colt McCoy’s first pass was a 70-yard touchdown to Pierre Garcon and he went on to complete 11of 12 for 128 yards and the one score. The subtext to this is that there is nothing standing in the way of Robert Griffin III stepping back into the starting role and that could be as early as this week. Griffin had limited practices last week and has been aiming at the Dallas game this week to return. Check your waiver wire in case Griffin is there.

FILLING HOLES

The absence of Stevan Ridley didn’t really change up the Patriots backfield. Shane Vereen (11-43) was both the leading rusher and receiver (5-71, 2 TDs) while Brandon Boldin was given just one late game catch and Jonas Gray ran three times for 12 yards versus the Jets. The darling of the preseason in James White remained inactive for the game. This is the New England backfield and could change in any or every week. But it is notable that Boldin was not the running back replacement for Ridley – Vereen was. At least until Vereen gets injured again and starts the guessing game all over again.

The Bills lost C.J. Spiller for the rest of the season and Fred Jackson is out at least the next two weeks but could be longer depending on how his groin responds to treatment. That leaves the Bills scrambling for a replacement and someone to cover for Spiller even once Jackson returns. Anthony Dixon ran for 51 yards on 13 carries after they left the Vikings game but he’s more of a special teamer and not considered the primary backup. The player sure to fly off the waiver wire this week will be Bryce Brown who they traded with the Eagles to acquire last spring.  Brown impressed the coaching staff last summer and now gets a chance to do start his career.  Unfortunately, the Bills face the Jets this week and then take their bye so Brown cannot offer a lot of help immediately but he can replace Spiller down the stretch and there’s no guarantee when Jackson returns or for how long.

Life without Victor Cruz caused predictable struggles but the rookie Odell Beckham scored twice in his first start with four catches for 34 yards in the loss to the Cowboys.  Larry Donnell was the most productive receiver with 90 yards on seven receptions though he lost two fumbles. Rueben Randle was the most targeted with nine passes he turned into six catches for74 yards.  But this was on the road in Dallas and Beckham’s future is already looking brighter with success in his first replacement of Cruz.  Donnell also looks to see increased work in the upcoming weeks.

Start planning this week before the rush. Only the 49ers and Giants are off now but in week nine, it will be the Falcons, Bills, Bears, Lions, Packers and Titans. And week ten contains byes for the Texans, Colts, Vikings, Patriots, Chargers and Redskins. That’s two weeks of freaking out for the unprepared when they go to set their lineups.

TRADING PLACES

Percy Harvin’s absence may have not made a difference either way in the loss to the Rams but it is interesting that the team was only informed as they prepared to leave for St. Louis.  Harvin was a known locker room problem and in two seasons with the Seahawks did very little. He never caught a touchdown and never gained more than 59 yards as a receiver in any game. Now with the Jets, his stock is even lower going to a team that consistently ranks among the worst passing offenses in the NFL. Harvin will offer special teams benefits. He’ll get more targets than in Seattle if only because the Jets fall behind early in most games. But only a sense of potential makes him fantasy relevant and that’s proven wrong since 2012.

Pay attention every day to the news. The 2014 NFL trade deadline is Tuesday, October 28th and Percy Harvin may not be the only high profile name swapping teams. This is a time that teams can get value for a player entering free agency in 2015. Some names rumored to be considered are Larry Fitzgerald, Vincent Jackson, Jermaine Gresham and Mike Williams. Even C.J. Spiller was also a possibility but was just lost for the season. There have been a high number of running back injuries throughout the league. Now is the time to get extra compensation for trading away a player if a team has more than enough depth. And where a player ends up is more important than who they are at this point in the season.

SUNDAY SNIPPETS

HUDDLE PLAYER OF THE WEEK

Peyton Manning – He wasn’t the highest scoring fantasy player but plenty close and that’s true in almost every week. He’s broken Brett Favre’s touchdown record and will continue to bury it so that we may never see it broken in our lifetimes. If Manning plays one more season, he’ll no doubt own the passing yardage record as well. And for all his records and all his commercials and all his exposure, he still seems like a nice guy that you’d have for a friend. A really, really wealthy, famous friend.

Salute!

DRAMA 101 – SOMEBODY HAS TO LAUGH, SOMEBODY HAS TO CRY

Sunday’s Couch Commentary

This was a pretty low scoring weekend with only three games over 30 points and just one over 40 points. We’re seeing trap games and teams that are taking a nap in the middle of their season. Injuries continue to raid the starters from backfields. But while overall scoring is lower, nine different players scored two touchdowns.

This was a different sort of week with disappointments and surprises. The Game-O-The-Week honors the sort of week that we’ve had.

Browns 6, Jaguars 24

How does this happen? If any team would take the Jaguars seriously and prepare for them it should be the Browns. Apparently whipping the Steelers by 21 points made them think a vacation was in order. Last year Brandon Weeden passed for 370 yards and three scores in Jacksonville. All Brian Hoyer could manage was 215 yards and one interception. Ben Tate ran for 36 yards on 16 carries against the Jaguars. Andrew Hawkins (5-112) was the only notable Brown player.

The Jaguars won despite Blake Bortles (159 yards, TD) throwing three interceptions. Denard Robinson had his first game as a primary back and ran for 127 yards and a score on 22 carries. But the only decent receiver was Allen Robinson (4-60, TD).

The win means that the Raiders are now “IT” as the final winless team. The Browns were on a roll and beating good teams but could only manage two field goals against the Jaguars. What a waste. And hardly the last time we’ll see this for the season. Almost every team is going throw away one week and figure that teams like ARI, CIN, CLE, DEN, SEA and STL had their bye back in week four. Three of them were just upset.

But the NFL keeps going and the Dallas Cowboys continue their magical mystery tour wherein the man formerly known as DeMarco Murray apparently loves 30 carries every week and they do not affect him. It was said he can withstand that because he’s not had heavy use before. That is correct. BECAUSE HE WAS ALWAYS HURT BEFORE.

Bad Back Tony only has three interceptions over the last six games and not one was a final drive killer. The defense that ranked #32 last year lost star players and somehow because one of the best units in the NFL. It’s like there was a hole through space and time and the current Cowboys team was replaced by a group of alie….what?…what’s that? Jerry is from where?

Okay. I’ll shut up. Texas Stadium does look like a mother ship. That is all I am saying. I’m done now.

Now get back to work…