Predictions Summary Projections by Position Projection Team Boxes

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Prediction: BAL 24, CIN 20 (Line: CIN by 1)

Update: Owen Daniels is a surprise scratch after undergoing a knee procedure Friday. Third-string tight end Crockett Gillmore fills in, but he’s more blocker than pass-catcher. Expect Joe Flacco’s yardage to be spread more amongst the Smiths and Justin Forsett; we’ve also given Daniels’ projected receiving TD to Forsett and Forsett’s rushing TD to goal line vulture Bernard Pierce. For Cincy, AJ Green is doubtful and hasn’t practiced yet so we’ve scrubbed his stat line. Brandon Tate likely sticks as a fringe guy, but any numbers Green was going to get likely go to Mohamed Sanu.

This is a replay of the season opener when the Bengals won 23-16 in Baltimore. But the Bengals are now 3-2-1 and have not won a game since week three. They are also coming off a embarrassing shutout by the Colts. The 5-2 Ravens are on a two game winning streak.

These next two weeks will define the season and both are on the road. But the Ravens had few problems beating the Steelers and this time the Bengals are without very important players and ripe for a loss. The Ravens are getting everyone healthy and in place and already are a game and a half in the lead for the division. They can just about seal it with wins for the next two weeks.

QUARTERBACK : Joe Flacco passed for 345 yards and one touchdown in the season openig loss to the Bengals. But he’s improved since then and currently boasts 14 touchdowns on the season and a total of three games over 300 yards. Flacco passed for ten touchdowns over just the last three games.

RUNNING BACK : The Ravens combined for 87 yards on 17 carries versus the Bengals in week one. Bernard Pierce is back and scored in each of the last two games as the goal line back while Justin Forsett continues to defy what the previous seven seasons indicated he was worth. Forsett ran for 70 yards on just 11 carries in the first meeting and scored once.

WIDE RECEIVER : Steve Smith ended with seven catches for 118 yards and one score in Cincinnati in the season opener. Torrey Smith was held to 50 yards on three catches. In the games since, Steve Smith continued to shine and racked up four 100 yard games and scored a total of four times. Torrey Smith is lighter on catches and yardage but scored four times over just the most recent four games. The passing offense has improved in the seven weeks since the opener.

TIGHT END : Dennis Pitta caught ten passes for 83 yards in the opener against the Bengals. Owen Daniels is the starter now and scored in two home games. He’s been relied on more the opponent has a tougher secondary.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: The difference now and two months ago is that the Bengals are reeling and have allowed two scores and healthy yardage to the last three opposing quarterbacks. They remain decent against the run in home games but are giving up big yards and scores to tight ends – more than any other team currently. Forsett is still a decent start this week since he starts catching more if the rushing is slowed down. Daniels is in a great spot to turn in nice yardage and score. Steve Smith is a must start regardless but even Torrey has at least minor upside here.

Losing A.J. Green for a few weeks contributed to the struggles of the offense but more than the ability to score points is the dip in the defense. The Bengals started the year out allowing only about 11 points per game through the week four bye. Since they average allowing 37 points per week. The Bengals seemed to be one of the elite teams through the first three weeks but never returned from their bye. This upcoming stretch of three home games should help but the Ravens improved since week one and the Bengals clearly have not.

QUARTERBACK : Andy Dalton passed for 301 yards and one score against the Ravens in the opener. Since that game he’s been less effective other than in the home game against the Panthers. Dalton comes off his worst game of the year when he could only manage completing 18 of 38 for 126 yards in the beating at Indianapolis. Without Green, Dalton is forcing Mohamed Sanu and Jermaine Gresham to become far more involved.

RUNNING BACK : Giovani Bernard was held to 48 rush yards by the Ravens but he added 62 yards on six catches in the season opener. Jeremy Hill only ran four times for 19 yards. Since then Bernard has been much more effective and more so when playing at home where he has always rushed in at least one score per game and produced his biggest yardage. Hill remains just a short yardage back but he scored in three games as well and all were the home stands.

WIDE RECEIVER : A.J. Green is critical to this offense but his status is still unresolved. He missed the last two games because of his toe but HC Marvin Lewis said that Green made tremendous strides towards playing this week. But he also said “It’s probably not gonna be 100 percent, but I hope it’s just manageable” regarding the pain for Green who ended with six receptions for 131 yards and one score versus the Ravens last time. I will assume a limited Green can play but even that is a big gray area. Hopefully later in the week his situation will be clearer.

Mohamed Sanu blew up for 10 catches for 120 yards and one score while replacing Green against the Panthers but last week he was held to only three catches for 54 yards by the Colts. No other wideouts have any fantasy value and little NFL value as well.

TIGHT END : Jermaine Gresham was held to only 16 yards on two catches in the last meeting but has since taken on a bigger role and even caught ten passes for 48 yards last week. He still has yet to score and is not worth a fantasy start but will show up in the box scores from time to time.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: The Ravens defense improved in the last two months and have only allowed seven passing scores over the seven games played. The yardage can get higher for good offense but the Bengals fortunes revolve around A.J. Green who may not even play. The Ravens are great against the run and have not allowed any back to gain more than 68 yards on them. This is another game where Dalton and Sanu are moderate plays at best and Green is a major risk to rely on pending full clearance and a complete practice. Bernard is still worth starting but mainly because of his receptions.

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