Predictions Summary Projections by Position Projection Team Boxes

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Prediction: BUF 20, NYJ 16 (Line: NYJ by 3)

The 4-3 Bills are 2-1 in road games this year. The 1-6 Jets are on a six game losing streak and ripe to make it seven. These teams traded home wins in 2013. The Jets won 27-20 and the Bills won their home game 37-14.

The Bills are only one game behind the Patriots and the bye awaits after this week. That should keep the Bills plenty focused so long as they can figure out who their running backs will be. The passing effort has been markedly improved with Kyle Orton under center and the defense more than pulls its weight. With any luck, the loss of C.J. Spiller might uncover a better alternative.

QUARTERBACK : Three weeks as the starter and Kyle Orton has yet to pass for fewer than 283 yards and produced five touchdowns against only three interceptions. It is bothersome that he’s been sacked 11 times in two recent home games but he is improving his chemistry with the receivers and that will pay dividends in games like this one.

E.J. Manuel threw for 243 yards and one score in Buffalo last year.

RUNNING BACK : This is where all eyes will be. C.J. Spiller was lost for the season with a broken collar bone and Fred Jackson will miss at least this week and potentially more with a groin injury. That means Anthony Dixon and Bryce Brown become the new committee. Dixon has been a small part of the rotation all year and ended with 51 yards on 13 carries after the others left last week. But the Bills traded a fourth-round pick for Brown from the Eagles with the intention that he would become a starter at some point – more likely 2015 when one or both of Spiller and Jackson would be gone.

Dixon believes that he will be the primary back and he is the veteran in the offense, knows the schemes and blocking assignments. Brown was brought in to be the starter though and history says he’s far more talented than the lumbering Dixon. Making matters worse is that they are on the road in New York where the Jets are capable of only one thing – stopping the run.

I am going to split the projections between the two but we’ll know more next week when the Bills are on bye. They have a fairly daunting schedule though and that Vikings game that Dixon just stumbled into may end up as the easiest matchup of the year.

WIDE RECEIVER : Sammy Watkins comes off the best game of his short career when he caught nine passes for 122 yards and two touchdowns in the win over the Vikings. Robert Woods scored once the previous week but was held to only ten yards on four catches in that game. Watkins is an elite wideout in the making and that is not taking too long to come to bear Chris Hogan has also stepped up with two straight efforts over 60 yards each.

TIGHT END : Scott Chandler has not scored this year and often turns in dud games but he’s also managed a 74 and 105 yard game. He remains outside of fantasy reliability but will show up every few games with a nice performance.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: The Jets at home are very tough to run against and they’ve not allowed a score by a back in a home game this year. The yardage remains low and is going to be split in some measure between Dixon and Brown anyway. But the Jets allowed at least two touchdowns to everyone and usually three. They’ve already given up 18 touchdowns to quarterbacks in just seven games. This is a spot where Chandler could show up but he is just not a red zone target this year. Watkins is a strong start and even Woods or Hogan could be a desperation flex play from their upside. But if possible it is best to wait on seeing what the backfield does before starting either Dixon or Brown.

The worst part about being bad is having opponents play down to your level and still beat you. Each week the need for a win is more desperate and by this point everyone is playing for their jobs. This could be the lightest matchup remaining on the schedule but that doesn’t mean it is light enough. The Jets are now fighting implosion.

QUARTERBACK : In the sense of “small victories”, Geno Smith did not throw an interception in the loss to the Patriots for the first time all year. But he also only passed for 226 yards and one score which is typical of almost every game that he plays. The addition of Percy Harvin may help this talent starved passing offense, but there are plenty of holes to fill and one speedy malcontent is not likely to make a tremendous difference.

Smith passed for 331 yards and two scores on the visiting Bills last year. He was later held to only 103 yards and three interceptions in the second meeting.

RUNNING BACK : The Jets had success running against the Patriots and Chris Ivory turned in a season best 107 yards and one score on 21 runs only one week after gaining just seven yards versus the Broncos. Chris Johnson continues to cash those checks but only scored once all year and while he ran for 61 yards on 13 carries last week, he remained below 50 yards in each of the previous five games. This unit is not even average on a good day and splits up the work enough to make all but the softest matchups unattractive to start either back.

WIDE RECEIVER : The addition of Percy Harvin certainly won’t make this unit any worse. The Jets released David Nelson to make room and the only notable receiver here is Eric Decker with 24 catches for 323 yards and three scores – roughly about 60 yards per week and a score every other week. Jeremy Kerley is the other starter but only scored once and his 22 receptions only gained 201 yards. Harvin will add a fast open field weapon but the reality is his biggest impact is just on special teams. The last time that Harvin caught a touchdown was in week eight of 2012. His two-year career in Seattle, including playoffs, resulted in a total of just 27 catches for 166 yards. He ran in a score this year but he’s been little more than an injury waiting to happen the last two seasons. He’s reported to be a locker room problem and that’s hardly what this sinking ship needs.

TIGHT END : The breakout game of ten catches for 68 yards and one score against the Broncos was just a blip. Jace Amaro returned to only three catches for 22 yards in the loss to the Patriots. Even in a good matchup he’s never had more than moderate yardage.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: The Bills always allow at least one passing score and the yardage can be healthy but the Jets come in with a mediocre product so more than one score will be hard to rely on. The Bills have yet to allow any rushing touchdowns and their run stopping counts even bigger with this game on Sunday. Honestly there is no safe play here and Percy Harvin is the only reason to watch this game.

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