Predictions Summary Projections by Position Projection Team Boxes

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Prediction: MIA 24, JAC 14 (Line: MIA by 5)

Update: Toby Gerhart practiced fully–twice!–last week and is listed as probable. He may swipe a few carries from Denard Robinson.

The 3-3 Dolphins bring a 2-1 road record to face the 1-6 Jaguars who just got rid of the zero in their standings. The Fins are better than their record indicates. The Jaguars winning back-to-back games is hard to embrace.

The win in Chicago was significant both in proving the direction of the Fins and that they could win away from home. The offense stepped up another level in the last three games and those were not gimmees. Road wins in Oakland and Chicago were dominating and the loss to the Packers was only by three points. The Fins are on the right track, the question is if they can continue the level of play and eventually catch up with the Bills and Patriots.

QUARTERBACK : For three straight weeks, Ryan Tannehill threw for two scores and roughly 260 yards in each game. He’s also added 35+ rush yards to his totals for a nice fantasy score each week. The even more encouraging aspect to the increase in production is that he’s been better at using his wide receivers.

RUNNING BACK : Lamar Miller mirrored Tannehill by turning up his production over the most recent three games when he scored at least once in each. His yardage was mostly average thanks to only getting about 15 carries per week but that should change at least for this game. He’s ending up with around 80 total yards and a score every week and that’s good enough to keep the committee away from the backfield.

WIDE RECEIVER : The yardage is never much and the best anyone here gained was 81 yards in the season opener by Mike Wallace who leads the team with five touchdowns – one in every week but the loss to the Chiefs. He’s consistent with 60 yards or so per game but could use more help. Jarvis Landry scored against the Packers with a season best 75 yards but then slipped back to only 46 yards on four catches the following week. Only Wallace carries consistency from the group but Landry is starting to come on.

TIGHT END : Charles Clay has been stuck around 30 yards in every game but turned in four catches for 58 yards and one score in Chicago last week. That was his first score and only the second for the unit.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: While the Jaguars rank poorly in most categories as expected, they could be much worse but some teams are playing down to their level and in the case of the Browns, even lower. But the Dolphins need to win to stay in the race and only have the Chargers next so no need to look past this week. Miller is on a nice roll and while the Jaguars have not given up more than 85 rush yards to any runner, they did allow seven touchdowns to the position. Tannehill is also on a roll with two score games and there should be no reason for that not to continue here. Tannehill, Miller and Wallace are worth a fantasy start this week.

It took an unsuspecting Browns team but the Jaguars are finally in the win column. The performance by the defense that held the Browns to only six points was enough after opposing teams had been showing lackluster effort and yet still winning the game. The rest of the schedule is mostly brutal and will need an even bigger trap game to get a win but hopefully the win over the Browns signals opponents to stop playing down to their level.

QUARTERBACK : Blake Bortles wasn’t the reason for the win. He actually had his worst showing of the year with only 159 passing yards and three interceptions. But he’s been consistent with that one touchdown pass every week. Bortles still has a long way to go before claiming significant progress has been made.

RUNNING BACK : The Jaguars are another team looking at changing their primary back here in the middle of the season. Converted ex-quarterback Denard Robinson ran for 127 yards and one score on 22 carries in the win over the Browns. That sort of dwarfs the other season best performance by a running back which was Toby Gerhart’s 42 yards on 18 carries back in the season opener. HC Gus Bradley already said that Robinson would be the feature back.

Storm Johnson now returns to being depth chart fodder and Jordan Toddman maintains his third down role that is meaningless anyway. This is a bad year to be the starter with a tough schedule coming up every week but at least Robinson did something for one game and he shows much more speed than any other back.

WIDE RECEIVER : This mish-mash of players is almost all healthy again and Allen Robinson (4-60, TD) scored for the first time this year. He’s the most productive and consistent wideout though he always ends up below 80 yards. Cecil Shorts is healthy as of this moment but is far too inconsistent to consider for a start. Bortles competed passes to five different wideouts last week and only Robinson produced fantasy relevant stats.

TIGHT END : No fantasy value. Clay Harbor might get you 30 yards.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: The Fins are good against the pass with only Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers throwing for more than 200 yards against them and while all teams notch one passing touchdown, almost no one has more. The rushing defense is also good though allowed six scores and one big game to Knile Davis. But this is barely a road game for Miami who may get there in cab. Denard Robinson is a low-end running back starter this week and mostly just on his potential and that he is playing at home. None of the other Jaguars merit a fantasy start.

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