Predictions Summary Projections by Position Projection Team Boxes

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Prediction: BAL 24, PIT 23 (Line: PIT by 1)

UPDATE: Justin Forsett is probable to play and will suit up no problems this week from his ankle. But Owen Daniels had his knee scoped and is considered questionable after limited work on Thursday and a full day on Friday. He is considered a game-time decision and if he does play would not be 100%. I am lowering his projections and realize he may not play. This is a late Sunday game so you may have no options if he ends up not playing.

This is the second meeting between these teams. The Ravens won 26-6 back in week two when the Steelers visited but are only 2-2 in road games. The Steelers are 3-1 at home. Both are a half game behind the Bengals and a loss by the Steelers is worse since they lose an important tie breaker with the Ravens in the only division that contains no losing records.

Losing in Cincinnati hurts the Ravens divisional aspirations especially since the Bengals were without several key players. That erased the positives from crushing the Falcons and Buccaneers and again calls into question why the defense is always worse on the road. The Ravens had little problem winning in week two but this won’t be nearly that easy.

QUARTERBACK : Joe Flacco passed for 166 yards and two touchdowns in the week two meeting with the Steelers. In road games he bombed the Buccaneers for five scores but failed to throw a touchdown in either Indianapolis or Cincinnati. and was limited to fewer than 235 yards in both games.

RUNNING BACK : Bernard Pierce was a healthy scratch last week because according to HC John Harbaugh the duo of Justin Forsett and Lorenzo Taliaferro gave them a better chance to win (even though they did not). Notable was that Taliaferro (7-27) scored twice from short yardage in Cincinnati. Forsett continues to be the primary back and usually gets the most targets as well.

Pierce (22-96) and Forsett (8-56) were both successful running against the Steelers last time.

WIDE RECEIVER : Steve Smith gained 71 yards on six catches in the last meeting with the Steelers but no other wideout had more than one catch. The problem so far is that the passing yardage and scores take a big nosedive in road games and even Smith only managed around 35 yards in both Indy and Cincy while Torrey Smith is even worse away from home.

TIGHT END : Owen Daniels hasn’t scored on the road yet but he did manage five catches for 70 yards when he played in Indy. The tougher defenses in road venues shortens Flacco’s game and includes the tight end more.

Daniels ended with five receptions for 28 yards and two scores back in week two versus the Steelers.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: The good news is that the Steelers defense not only is weaker against the pass but even more so when they are at home. They allowed eight passing scores over the four previous games there and they average allowing about 300 yards there. The secondary is worse than it was back in week two and not only gave up five scores in the four home stands, five visiting receivers have topped 87 yards in Pittsburgh and typically the opponents #1 wideout. The rushing defense is nothing special either with both Terrance West and Arian Foster topping 100 rush yards in Pittsburgh. The Steelers may have beaten the Colts, but they gave up a lot of yards and scores along the way. Flacco, Forsett and Steve Smith are still in play for fantasy consideration this week Taliaferro is a weaker play but has upside for a touchdown.

The Steelers win over the Colts set records and against one of the previously top defenses in the league. But that all smacked of a trap game that the Colts just could never get fully on track and that their defense just decided to mail it in for one week. This is the same Steelers team that lost by 21 points in Cleveland and lost to the visiting Buccaneers. It was great fun while it happened but there are seven other games that say you should probably disregard what happened last week.

QUARTERBACK : Ben Roethlisberger crushed his personal best records with 522 yards and six touchdowns last week but that was the same amount of touchdowns from his first three home games and his yardage was nearly twice his average. Big Ben passed for 217 yards and no scores in Baltimore last time. He does score better at home – usually twice – and his yardage improves as well.

RUNNING BACK : Le’Veon Bell only scored twice all year but his total yardage exceeds 100 yards in every game. Even at home Bell is only running for around 80 yards in most games but consistently adds six to eight catches each week. Bell ran for only 59 yards on 11 carries but added five catches for 48 yards when he face the Ravens in week two. He’ll see bigger stats in a home game and LeGarrette Blount gets minimal play for the last month and poses to threat to Bell’s production.

WIDE RECEIVER : Markus Wheaton caught his first score of the year last week but he’s being phased out in preference for the rookie Martavis Bryant. in the win over the Colts, Bryant was brilliant on his five receptions for 83 yards and scored twice. He turned in two catches for 40 yards and a score in the win over the Texans for his first NFL game. Bryant won’t catch a score every week of course but he’s started out on a high note.

Antonio Brown is a machine this year with at least five catches in every game and he averages 107 yards. He’s scored seven times and while his road efforts have only once topped 100 yards, he’s never been worse than 90 yards at home where he’s scored five of his seven touchdowns.

Brown ended with seven catches for 90 yards on the Steelers in week two.

TIGHT END : Heath Miller was a minor player until three weeks ago when he posted 85 yards and a score on the Buccaneers. That seemed like a one week aberration until he turned in seven receptions for 112 yards and a touchdown last week. Miller only caught four passes for 35 yards in the first meeting with the Ravens but will get looks when Roethlisberger runs out of receivers.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: The good news here is that Brown already posted 90 yards in Baltimore and this week (and a few more) CB Jimmy Smith is out. That should ensure that Brown has a nice game and he is at home anyway. The Ravens have only allowed seven passing touchdowns all year and only once given up more than one in the same game. But the yardage tends to be higher because the Ravens are great against the run and held every runner under 70 rush yards. Roethlisberger is only a moderate play and just because he is at home. Brown is a strong play as always as is Bell. But all others carry more risk than apparent reward.

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