Predictions Summary Projections by Position Projection Team Boxes

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Prediction: JAC 13, CIN 24 (Line: CIN by 12)

UPDATE: Giovani Bernard is out with a hip pointer and Jeremy Hill will become the primary back with some help from Cedric Peerman. A.J. Green is listed as questionable but after limited practices all week, HC Marvin Lewis says is expected Green to play this week.

The 1-7 Jaguars are 0-4 on the road and face the 4-2-1 Bengals who are undefeated at home. The problem with this game is the same with all Jaguar tilts – teams tend to play down to them knowing they can win. The Bengals should win this game regardless but how much fantasy value they produce could disappoint.

The Jaguars struggle on trying to find anything resembling an offensive rhythm and for at least two home games there seemed to be a spark of a rushing game. The schedule is always impossibly hard once you are one of the worst teams in the league and much of what they accomplish comes later in games. Without soft home games, no players here are worth fantasy consideration.

QUARTERBACK : Blake Bortles is good enough with a score in almost every game and average yardage in most. But he’s already thrown 12 interceptions against six touchdowns and ne was sacked six times in the most recent road game. He relies on Allen Robinson enough that he’s almost become reliable. But Bortles has far to go before he’ll merit any fantasy consideration.

RUNNING BACK : Denard Robinson followed up his 127 yards and one score against the Browns when 18 carries for 108 yards against the visiting Dolphins. Most of that yardage all came on the first two plays but no other runner for the Jaguars gained more than 42 yards. Figure Robinson a lock to continue to start though this will be his first road game and that’s sure to depress his stats a bit.

Toby Gerhart os healthy again and played in the loss to the Dolphins but only ran four times for ten yards. The backfield now belongs to Robinson.

WIDE RECEIVER : The Jaguars will mix in four and even five different wide receivers each week but only Allen Robinson offers any sense of reliability and production. He scored in the last two games and offers around 60 yards in every week. Cecil Shorts is back to minimal production and none of the others are worth considering.

TIGHT END : No fantasy value. Clay Harbor scored just once all year and whule he twice had over 70 yards, he’s also been below 35 yards in all other games.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: No need to get extensive here. The Bengals have a decent secondary and on the road even Robinson loses his allure despite scoring the last two weeks. The Bengals have yet to allow more than 70 yards to any visiting runner and most do not score so even Robinson is less attractive this week despite two straight 100 yard games. Both players are desperation plays if you forgot half you team was on bye this week but the rest of the Jags are even less than that. The Bengals are weak against tight ends allowing four scores and five 50+ yard performances over just the last four games but Harbor only has one score all year. I’ll credit him more of a place holder than a lock for a touchdown.

The Bengals were short several key players and yet pulled out the win over the Ravens which looms huge in the race for the division. These next two home games should be softer matchups that the Bengals won’t necessarily need all players to win. A.J. Green is the most critical player out but missing three tight ends doesn’t help the passing or the rushing effort.

QUARTERBACK : Andy Dalton varies considerably each week and that makes him harder to predict. At home he’s thrown for one score versus the Falcons, two against the Panthers, none facing the Titans and most recently ran in two scores when the Ravens visited last week. His yardage has been as low as 126 yards and as high as 323. Much of his variance comes from the success of the rushing effort and how many touchdowns then score.

RUNNING BACK : Giovani Bernard injured his hip in the win over the Ravens but still scored once. While he’s never scored in a road game, he’s also never failed to produce one or two touchdowns in a home game this year. The yardage rends to be moderate unless the opponent has a really weak defense. Jeremy Hill scored in all but the most recent home game though his yardage tends to be much less than Bernard’s. I will assume that Bernard is good to go this week and update as warranted.

WIDE RECEIVER : A.J. Green started the season on a hot note but his toe forced him our since week three. HC Marvin Lewis would not rule Green out this week and even Green himself said he thought he could play. But the Bengals should beat the Jaguars anyway and unless Green’s toe is truly 100%, it makes more sense to save him for a schedule that will get much tougher in a couple of weeks. I will include him as limited in the projections and then update as needed.

Mohamed Sanu has been more than adequate as a replacement for Green and in the last two home games, Sanu topped 120 yards in both and scored versus the Panthers. Sanu will continue to figure in heavily even when Green returns.

TIGHT END : No fantasy value.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: The Jaguars defense has yet to allow a running back to score this year – when in Jacksonville. But on the road they’ve allowed six touchdowns to the position. They have held all runners under 85 yards this year. Most road opponents just throws for 300 yards and two scores to beat them. Bernard, Green and Sanu merit starting consideration. If Bernard is injured or even limited, Hill’s value goes up and the same for Sanu if Green misses yet another game.

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