Predictions Summary Projections by Position Projection Team Boxes

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Prediction: NO 24, CAR 27 (Line: NO by 2.5)

This is a battle for the NFC South with the 3-4 Saints trying to scratch their way back but carrying an 0-4 road mark. The 3-4-1 Panthers are not much better but are 2-2 at home. These teams traded home wins in 2013. The Panthers won 17-13 when they hosted. The Saints looked great against the Packers last week but have just been unable to compete on the road this year.

This is the Thursday night game.

The Saints finally managed to win a shoot out at home and take down the Packers for a much needed win. But on the road these Saints have lost to everyone. They could turn it around here but these teams usually trade home wins. The Saints get four of the next five weeks at home to recover so even losing here doesn’t mean that the season is over. The NFC South doesn’t have any winning records – this won’t be decided until late in the season.

QUARTERBACK : Drew Brees has been very consistent with high yardage and threw for more than 290 yards in all but one game. But he’s only exceeded two scores once and that was the most recent home game. Nothing wrong with being reliable for 300 yards and two scores for fantasy purposes but the Saints defense gives away even more than Brees can produce.

Brees passed for 281 yards and one score in Carolina last year.

RUNNING BACK : Both Pierre Thomas and Khiry Robinson missed last week and may not play in this Thursday game from a lack of time to get healthy. Thomas shoulder should keep him out at least this week if not next as well. Robinson’s forearm injury kept him out of Tuesday’s practice so he’s unlikely to get back in shape. Travis Cadet filled in for just four catches last week while Mark Ingram finally had the sort of game they envisioned for years. He set a personal best with 172 yards and one score on 24 carries in the win over the Packers. Ingram is running much better in his contract year and while he scored four times and turned in nice yardage while facing the Falcons, Browns and Packers, he was held to only 16 yards on ten runs by the Lions.

WIDE RECEIVER : Brandin Cooks scored both as a runner (1-7) and a receiver (6-94) last Sunday but he was far less productive in the three games leading up to it. Cooks has obvious talent that will continue to improve and become a major part of the Saints passing scheme but as a rookie he is still too inconsistent and rarely scores. His last three road games resulted in a total of just ten catches for 71 yards or roughly 25 yards per game. Marques Colston has been just as quiet save for his 111 yard game in Detroit. He’s failed to score since week three and spends most weeks around 50 or 60 yards.

Colston recorded five catches for 63 yards in Carolina last season.

TIGHT END : Jimmy Graham is still not completely back from injury but while he played as a decoy in week seven with no catches, he caught five passes for 59 yards and a score last week. His stats are way off last year but at least he is back on the field and finding the end zone again.

Graham ended with 73 yards and one score on five catches versus the Panthers last season.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: The problem here is that the Saints had a home game and really stepped up to win it last week because they had to win to remain in contention. Same thing for the Panthers this week who know a home loss to the Saints will be hard to compensate for. But the Panthers rushing defense really declined this year and allowed seven rushing scores by running backs but only one in a home game. Expect Ingram to be ridden hard, early and often this week and that will decrease what the rest of the offense produces. Brees, Cooks, Colston and Graham are in line for good but not great showings this week. They rank well against tight ends and yet have never faced any notable tight end all year – Graham steps up again.

The Panthers are somehow leading the division with a 3-4-1 record and have only one home win this year. But the schedule lightens up with upcoming games against the Eagles, Falcons and Vikings. Losing this week might be just enough to keep the Panthers out of the postseason though and it is not like anyone from the NFC South is likely to host the NFL championship anyway. But this is a stand and deliver game for the Panthers or they take a turn that may never be able to change this year.

QUARTERBACK : Last seek’s loss to the Seahawks aside, the Panthers and Cam Newton are improving on offense and coming to terms with the new receivers. Newton passed for 181 yards and one score on the visiting Saints last year. He only managed to gain six yards on four runs. After his surprise 107 yards rushing in Cincinnati, Newton has slipped back down to around 30 yards per game as a runner.

RUNNING BACK : DeAngelo Williams is expected to be back this week and help ensure that Jonathan Stewart never has a meaningful game. This is the #32 unit of running backs in the NFl that scored only three times all year and by a different back every time. The rushing stats rarely exceed 40 yards for any individual runner and there has not been any discernable fantasy value here in many years.

Williams ran for 67 yards and one score on the Saints last season.

WIDE RECEIVER : Kelvin Benjamin is the real deal and even facing the Seattle defenders, he posted 94 yards on four catches including catching a 51-yard pass while being sandwiched by CB Richard Sherman and S Earl Thomas. He’s already scored five times this year though oddly just once in a home game. No other wideout accounted for more than one score or produces any meaningful yardage. This is almost all Benjamin and yet still works.

TIGHT END : Greg Olsen was bottled up last week by the Seahawks who rolled coverage and held him to only one catch. But he has been delivering 60 to 100 yards in all other weeks and remains the only other true weapon besides Benjamin. Olsen already scored five times over the eight weeks of the season.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: The Saints defense has declined sharply this year and more so when on the road. Matt Ryan opened the year with 448 yards and three touchdowns on them. Aaron Rodgers just laid down 418 yards in New Orleans. At home, Newton has a good chance for two scores and moderate to good yardage. Greg Olsen faces a solid pass defense that has held all tight ends to only one score all year and never more than 65 yards. This week Newton and Olsen are average plays but Benjamin should reap at least one score if not two against a very soft secondary. Olsen goes against a defense that has allowed just one score all season.

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