Predictions Summary Projections by Position Projection Team Boxes

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Prediction: NYJ 13, KC 31 (Line: KC by 10)

The Jets drag their seven game losing streak to town with a new/old quarterback and the 4-3 Chiefs cannot tolerate losing any game that should be a easy as this. The Jets still have some punch and a great offensive line but the secondary and quarterback play derails it every time. The only interesting thing here is that the Chiefs love to run and the Jets only strength is stopping the run.

It never seems to get better for the Jets who can pull close in games only to lose. Then follow that up by getting trounced again. Last week Geno Smith got the hook but the alternative is no real upgrade and an inability to pass coupled with an inability to stop the pass means the games tend to get away from the Jets sooner than later. On the plus side, at least Percy Harvin can get a good hot dog and pizza now.

QUARTERBACK : Geno Smith was hell bent for the bench when he threw three interceptions in the first quarter. He was replaced by Michael Vick who went on to complete 18 of 36 for 153 yards, two lost fumbles and one interception. He was also sacked four times. HC Rex Ryan confirmed that Vick would start this week and after the way Smith failed so spectacularly, Ryan had no choice less he look like he just is not trying anymore.

RUNNING BACK : Despite the offensive problems, at least Chris Ivory has maintained some fantasy value. He scored three times over the last two games and broke 100 rush yards in New England. But he’s more often stuck at 50 yards or less in most games. Chris Johnson has nearly no role anymore other than cashing checks.

WIDE RECEIVER : Percy Harvin’s debut featured him running four times for 28 yards and then catching three of his nine targets for 22 yards so he’s still just as good as he was in Seattle. Eric Decker remains the only consistent factor here with around 50 yards or so every week and then a score in trash time when at home. Harvin’s role will grow here but the quality of the passes probably won’t

TIGHT END : Jace Amaro ended with five catches for 51 yards playing with Vick so that is a mildly encouraging sign that he will still matter. That’s roughly right where he ends up in every home game though he’s averaged only 20 yards per game when he is away.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: The Chiefs at home have held opponents to minimal yardage and just one score and that’s for quarterbacks better than Vick. The worse part is that they are even better against the run and are the only team in the NFL that has not allowed any rushing scores this year. They are weakest against tight ends and seven have scored on them so Jace Amaro is a reasonable though risky play here. Considering it is an away game with Vick at the helm and the Jets are floundering, only Amaro stands out and Ivory could be a flex play hoping for moderate yardage.

Monster win over the Rams extends the winning streak and now facing the Jets it should go to three. The defense has been outstanding in recent games but the schedule gets a lot tougher after this week with only two free wins over the Raiders left for certain wins. The difference this year has been an improved passing offense that should be the winning margin here.

QUARTERBACK : Alex Smith injured his throwing shoulder but then played through it last week when he passed for 226 yards on the Rams. He’s expected to be fine for this matchup. Smith’s production is always dependent on whatever the rushing game cannot accomplish and that is why he’s as good as three scores or no touchdowns. Last week was the first time he had failed to score at home but he was never needed.

RUNNING BACK : Jamaal Charles continues to churn out the scores with six over the last four games played but he has yet to break 100 rushing yards and has a lesser role as a receiver this season. Knile Davis takes up ten or more carries per week though and he’s ran in four touchdowns himself. Charles at home has been good for 70 rushing yards per week so far. Knile Davis factors in even more at home as well.

WIDE RECEIVER : This crew still has not caught even one touchdown all year. Dwayne Bowe is good for around 60 yards each week but this unit has no fantasy value aside from the marginal Bowe and his yardage. They mostly exist to run deep and keep the defenders away from Charles and Davis.

TIGHT END : Travis Kelce has been brought along slowly from his microfracture surgery and spent the last two weeks with around 40 yards per game. He scored for three weeks straight prior to that but his yardage remains low in recent weeks. He’s sure to bounce back soon but when remains a guess because they are not fully using him yet.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: It is a bad sign for a defense when no opponent for eight games has thrown fewer than two touchdowns and on the road the average is three along with 260+ passing yards. The rushing defense is good though less so when they leave New York. Charles won’t break 100 rush yards here but can still turn in a good game if they will use him as a receiver and the Jets should force than that way. Smith is a marginal play more from his standard game than what the Jets allow. But Kelce has some upside against a secondary that gave up nine scores to the position. Bowe is a shot for yardage.

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