Predictions Summary Projections by Position Projection Team Boxes

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Prediction: SD 24, MIA 20 (Line: MIA by 1)

Coin flip game features the 4-3 Chargers on a two game losing streak and only 2-2 on the road against the 4-3 Dolphins who are on a two game winning streak but are only 1-2 at home.

The Dolphins won 20-16 when the Chargers visited last year.

Losing to the Broncos last week means the Chargers fall a game and a half back in the AFC West and Denver has the tie breaker. But even with the two game losing streak, the Chargers are in the running for a wild card and should remain so with a schedule that is going to get softer for the next month or so.

QUARTERBACK : The Chargers may be lagging the Broncos but Philip Rivers continues to be a solid fantasy quarterback with more than a few big games. He thrown for multiple touchdowns for the last seven games and remained about 250 yards in all but two games this year. Four of his last five games featured three passing scores.

Rivers passed for 298 yards and one score in Miami last year.

RUNNING BACK : Branden Oliver cooled significantly in the last two weeks thanks to far tougher matchups. In Denver he only managed 36 rush yards on 13 carries but did catch seven passes for 27 yards. He’s been a lock for four catches per game and his carries vary on the course of the game but always remain above a dozen so far. There is a chance that Matthews may return this week but I will update as needed.

Mathews gained 127 yards on 19 runs versus the Dolphins last season.

WIDE RECEIVER : After a season full of disappointment, Keenan Allen finally scored his first touchdown of the year when he ended with nine receptions for 73 yards and one score in Denver. His only other notable effort was at home against the Jaguars a month ago and otherwise he’s been scary consistent at only 50 yards or less each week. Eddie Royal cranks out the 40 yard efforts each week and stopped scoring a few games back. Malcom Floyd is better with 50 or 60 yards per week and he scored three times in games facing weaker secondaries.

No wideout scored or even topped 50 yards in the meeting last year.

TIGHT END : What Antonio Gates lacks in yardage he more than makes up with touchdowns. He’s been held to around 60 yards or fewer for the last moth but he’s also racked up six scores over the last four games ad never less than one. Gates may be in his twilight years but a touchdown or two every week makes a big difference.

Gates (4-69, TD) accounted for the only score last year.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: The Dolphins sport one of the best pass defenses that allows only one score per opponent in every home game this year along with 200 yards or less. And yet Rivers has thrown for two or three scores in seven straight games. The reality is that the Fins have faced a number of weaker passing teams as well – BUF, OAK and JAC. They have been average against the run but allowed five scores to running backs in their three home games so far. I like Rivers in this one to have a lesser game than his recent outings but still be one of the best that the Fins have faced. That makes Rivers, Oliver and Gates all worthy of consideration and even Allen could see an uptick here but still remains a risk with too many off games.

Two straight road wins help the team standings but with the Patriots looking back to form lately combined with this schedule, the Fins may already be as high as they are going to get. The defense always comes through against the weaker opponents but the offense doesn’t change much regardless of who they are playing. The offense has not really improved or evolved this year.

QUARTERBACK : Ryan Tannehill always throws a touchdown in every game but never more than two and his yardage always bounces around from 200 to 275 every week. Certainly good. Definitely helps win some games. But the passing game has yet to really take off and once the Fins fall behind in a game, they struggle to come back.

RUNNING BACK : They lost Knowshon Moreno and never really replaced him. So Lamar Miller is getting the full load as the primary back for the Dolphins and scored four times over the last four games. He limited to no more than 18 carries per week and usually more like 15 and that has him falling short of 100 yards in all but one game. But adding in a few catches and Miller provides more fantasy value than any other time in his career. He’s finally worth starting as a RB2 every week.

WIDE RECEIVER : Mike Wallace has publicly grumbled about the passing game and his role in it but he’s clearly the only wideout that matters with five touchdowns – no one else has more than one. No Dolphin receiver has topped 81 yards in a game though and even Wallace is more consistent around 50 yards or so. The passing stats are always moderate and are distributed to enough players that only Wallace carries any value and that is more about his touchdown production.

TIGHT END : No fantasy value.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: The Chargers gave up a lot in their trap game in Oakland and then to Peyton Manning but otherwise they have been solid against the pass and held opponents to only one ot two touchdowns with moderate yardage. That’s right up Tannehill’s alley and their weakness is more against the wide receivers instead of tight ends which the Fins do not use. Tannehill is not good for more than an average sort of day for him and the only fantasy starters that are reasonable this week are Miller for yardage and Wallace on the chance they shut him up with a touchdown.

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