Predictions Summary Projections by Position Projection Team Boxes

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Prediction: DEN 31, OAK 17 (Line: DEN by 11.5)

UPDATE: Montee Ball is only questionable this week and has been able to participate in limited practices this week after being out since week three with a groin injury. I am not adding him into the projections because he would have a limited role if he even plays but it is notable that he is getting close to returning.

This should be a very solid win by the Broncos and more so since they are coming off a loss to the Patriots last week. The 6-2 Broncos are still a game ahead in the AFC West and this divisional tilt has to be won. The Raiders are still the only winless team. The Broncos swept the Raiders last year and won 34-14 in Oakland for the season finale. They won 37-21 in Denver. This could be a trap game but the Broncos need a win too badly to overlook the Raiders.

Getting manhandled in New England hurts but illustrates why homefield is so important in the playoffs even for the Broncos. And the loss to the Patriots means even more because the Broncos have only played in three road games all year and lost two of them. Five of the next seven matchups are away from Denver though that more likely helps the fantasy aspect of the team needing to score points than from an NFL standpoint of just winning games. The one plus side of the Broncos schedule is that they likely won’t have any home games in the snow during the fantasy season so long as week 14 is clear.

QUARTERBACK : Peyton Manning comes off a rare game with just two scores but he turned in 438 passing yards to ease the pain. He’s still a lock for three scores and 300 yards or at least the equivalent of it.

Manning threw for 266 yards and four touchdowns in Oakland last season.

RUNNING BACK : Montee Ball remains quietly in the background so much that he’s easy to forget about. His groin injury is still considered week-to-week but his season is already a lost cause. Ronnie Hillman has performed well enough that there’s no reason to switch away from what is already working. Hillman was on a three game streak of 100+ total yard games until last week when he was held to just 63 yards by the Patriots but like Manning, he made it up in other ways by scoring on a run and a reception.

The Broncos combined for 125 yards on 28 carries between three different runners last year.

WIDE RECEIVER : Wes Welker was blasted last week and is “day to day” because of his back. I’m holding Welker out of the projections for now but he’s rarely been a factor this year anyway. Emmanuel Sanders more than compensates for Welker’s inactivity and is on a two game stretch of 120+ yard games. Demaryius Thomas has remained above 100 yards in each of the last five games. Unless the defense is really top notch, Sanders and Thomas are more than opponents can handle anyway.

Thomas ended with 113 yards and two scores in Oakland last season. Eric Decker would also catch a touchdown.

TIGHT END : On the plus side, Julius Thomas scored in the loss to the Patriots but he only caught two passes for 33 yards and failed to score in the two previous games along with minimal receptions. He started the season out with nine touchdowns in a row over five games but for three weeks has been little used or even targeted. The success of Hillman coincides with the decline of Thomas.

Thomas was held to five catches for 36 yards with no touchdown in Oakland last time.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: No surprises here. The Broncos usually bomb the Raiders anyway and they are allowing plenty of yardage and scores to opposing quarterbacks who want to go that route. Those who do not are on teams that are just running all over the Raiders who have allowed 11 scores to running backs this year. It is a Raider game – roll out all the regulars – Manning, Thomas, Thomas, Hillman and Sanders.

Still searching for that first win and facing the Broncos is likely not going to change anything. The Raiders are rebuilding and getting their quarterback needed playing time but there is little else in the way of progress being made on either the offense or the defense. The only bonus to playing lately is that teams are starting to play down to their level and the game score suggests that the teams are more even than they really are. Judging by the rest of the schedule, the Raiders need to pull an upset or risk being the next 0-16 team.

QUARTERBACK : Derek Carr chugs along but stats remain below fantasy relevancy. He’s totaled only 11 touchdowns against seven interceptions and his yardage varies greatly from week to week depending on how motivated his opponent feels. Oddly enough his worst games have come while at home other than the one Chargers tilt that saw Carr throw a freakish four scores. He’s much more reliable to end up with just one touchdown.

RUNNING BACK : This remains one of the worst units in the league with Maurice Jones-Drew breaking new ground. He’s already been so unproductive that it is a wonder that they allow him to dress for a game and now he comes off a new low. He ran the ball twice in Seattle for a net of a two yard loss. Darren McFadden produces marginal stats in most weeks but he does add around four catches which at least makes him a fantasy option. But he’s only scored twice this year and never gained more than 100 total yards.

WIDE RECEIVER : Andrew Holmes is the most productive wideout over the last six weeks but he sandwiched week eight’s touchdown and 69 yards with scoreless games that featured fewer than 35 yards each. James Jones scored just once in the last six games and tends to stay around 50 or 60 yards in most weeks. This unit has minimal impact on any game and so far only Holmes has startable value when facing the worst of secondaries.

TIGHT END : If there is any progress being made with the receivers and Derek Carr, it is here. Mychal Rivera has become a preferred target for Carr for the last two weeks with about ten targets in both games. He ended the loss to the Browns with a career best seven catches for 83 yards and then followed that up with eight receptions for 38 yards and two touchdowns in Seattle. The Raiders desperately need any receiver to step up and make a difference and Carr has relied on Rivera for two straight weeks.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: The question each week is how motivated will the opponent be to play their best? This is a divisional game and on the road so expect the Broncos to give this a full effort especially on the heels of the loss to the Pats. The rushing offense is never a big contributor and against the Broncos less so but at least the receptions that McFadden makes each week helps him remain at least a low end flex play consideration. Carr could toss a couple of scores here since all road opponents have done as much but expecting much yardage is unreliable. The Broncos are weaker against tight ends and that could make Rivera an upside play though with obvious risk.

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