Predictions Summary Projections by Position Projection Team Boxes

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Prediction: KC 23, BUF 17 (Line: KC by 2)

UPDATE: Sammy Watkins is questionable and was held out of practices on Thursday and Friday because of his groin. Consider him as a gametime decision and be ready to replace him as the Bills are not clear on his status. I am lowering his projections based on his risk and be aware that he may not play.

The 5-3 Chiefs draw within one game of the Broncos thanks to a three game winning streak while the 5-3 Bills are on their own two game stretch of wins. This is a coin flip game mostly because of venue. The Chiefs are just 2-2 away from home and the Bills are only 2-2 at home. The Chiefs won 23-13 in Buffalo last year.

The Chiefs are playing solid football this year and the defense has been quietly better than last season.. They’ve held opponents to no more than two touchdowns for the last six games while the offense still lives and dies by what Jamaal Charles accomplishes. Ignore the two meetings with the Raiders still on the schedule and every week will be a challenge for the Chiefs.

QUARTERBACK : Alex Smith is still just a game manager but when faced by especially weak secondaries he can and has throw for two and even three touchdowns. He currently totals 12 touchdowns over eight games but that included two efforts that did not produce any scores. Smith has also tended to have lower yardage in away games.

Smith only passed for 124 yards in Buffalo last year.

RUNNING BACK : Jamaal Charles is not rolling up major yardage as he has in the past but he remains good for around 100 yards each week and his seven touchdowns were produced in just the last five weeks. Knile Davis only factors in when the Chiefs get such a big lead that there is extra rushing left to do to run out the clock and Davis will take a big end of game chunk. Charles hasn’t been used much as a receiver this year and his best game on the road only produced two catches for 12 yards. Charles is all about the run and rushing scores.

Charles gained 90 yards on 17 runs in Buffalo and caught six passes that only totaled six yards.

WIDE RECEIVER : It just doesn’t get any worse than the Chiefs wideouts. Eight games into the season and not one wide receiver has caught a touchdown or even topped 81 yards in any game. Dwayne Bowe carries minor fantasy value since he usually ends up around 60 to 80 yards in most games but he never scores. There is no surety that any other wide receiver will even have a catch in the game outside of Bowe.

Bowe ended with 7catches for 67 yards on the Bills last year.

TIGHT END : Travis Kelce is the lone positive development in the passing game and caught four touchdowns this season to lead the team. But his yardage is rarely higher than 45 yards and he’s scored in just one of the last three weeks. Kelce is as good as it gets for a Chiefs receiver but that is still not all that productive.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: The Bills allow a passing score in almost every game but the Chiefs cannot be relied on for more than just one and moderate yardage. Charles faces a defense that has not allowed a rushing score in Buffalo this year but they’ve also not faced nearly as good of a runner as Charles – Jerick McKinnon recent ran for 103 yards in Buffalo. The Chiefs have only allowed two tight ends to score but many have ended with more than 50 yards so Kelce is in play this week as well. But none of the other offensive players are worth considering aside from Bowe for moderate yardage

The Bills come off their bye and at 5-3 they remain in the race for the division and even a wild card at the worst. The schedule is actually lighter in the second half of the season aside from probable road losses in New England and Denver. The offense still has plenty to prove but at least the defense has quietly kept the Bills in nearly every game.

QUARTERBACK : The switch from EJ Manuel to Kyle Orton seemed like an incremental upgrade at first. A month later it’s more like a genius move. In four games, Manuel totaled five passing scores and never more than 238 pass yards. Orton threw for nine touchdowns over his four games, more than one in all but one and even four in the most recent win over the Jets. He;s also never been worse than 238 yards and thrown for 300 or more twice.

RUNNING BACK : C.J. Spiller is on injured reserve and Fred Jackson should be out another two weeks or so with a groin injury. Replacing the two starters against the Jets was not pretty though they possess one of the very best defensive lines so it was not unexpected. Bryce Brown’s first action of the year resulted in just seven carries for 15 yards and no catches. Anthony Dixon ended with 22 runs for only 44 yards and no catches as well. Hard to guage the duo from that game but the rushing defenses for the next three weeks are not much easier and in week 12 it is back to playing the Jets again.

As a further insult to those who scrambled to grab Dixon or Brown from the waiver wire, the Bills allowed fullback Frank Summers to score the one short yardage touchdown.

WIDE RECEIVER : Sammy Watkins was held mostly in check by the Lions and Patriots during the first games with Orton as the starter but he’s certainly found his star wideout by now. At home against the Vikings, Watkins caught a career best nine passes for 122 yards and two touchdowns. An New York versus the Jets, he still had three receptions for 157 yards and a touchdown and would have had two were it not for premature showmanship that allowed the defenders to catch up to him. Robert Woods scored in two of the last three games but has been very low on yardage all season.

TIGHT END : Not much fantasy value. Scott Chandler just scored for the first time all year but no tight end for the Bills ends up with more than a few catches in most games. Chandler will show up on occasion but over half his games come in well below 30 yards.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: The problem this week is that the Bills like to run but are without their two best running backs. And the Chiefs are outstanding against running backs having never allowed any to score. Expect marginal rushing stats again this week. Orton faces a secondary that is also very good and that has limited all opponents to less than 265 passing yards in every game – most are under 200 yards. The only fantasy plays here this week are Orton for a moderate game with possibly two scores and then Watkins. The Chiefs have also allowed seven tight ends to score on them though Chandler carries a lot of risk.

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