Predictions Summary Projections by Position Projection Team Boxes

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Prediction: MIA 16, DET 24 (Line: DET by 3)

UPDATE: As expected, both Reggie Bush and Calvin Johnson had full practices on every day and are ready to play this week. Lamar Miller was limited in practices this week to rest his shoulder but is still expected to play.

The 5-3 Dolphins have never looked better coming off a shutout over the Chargers last week and on a three game winning streak. The 6-2 Lions have won their last three games and are finally getting the whole band back together. The Fins have not beaten a team with a winning record since the season opener.

Everything was working last week when the Fins outscored the Chargers 37-0 but a bigger game looms next week when they host the Bills who already beat them back in week two and who is also 5-3 in the AFC East currently. The defense has come to the rescue in recent weeks holding most teams to 14 points or less while the offense has been just good enough. One week after Mike Wallace complained about the offense, Ryan Tannehill turned in his biggest game of the year. That will be a challenge to sustain with the upcoming schedule sporting numerous good defenses and almost all on the road.

QUARTERBACK : He not only scored in every game, Ryan Tannehill comes off a season high 288 passing yards and three touchdowns over the Chargers. To date, Tannehill scored 14 times against only six interceptions though his worst efforts were generally in away games. Tannehill is usually stuck between one and two touchdowns and average passing yardage but comes to life more when facing weaker secondaries which won’t be the case this week.

RUNNING BACK : Lamar Miller suffered a sprain of the AC joint in his shoulder but it is not severe and he is on track to play this week barring a setback. I’ll update him as warranted but he is on a nice stretch of games with scores in four of the last five. His yardage rarely totals much and he’s broken 100 total yards just once. But Miller is running for 60 yards or so each week and scoring with consistency. Damien Williams helped to fill in for him last week but only gained 29 yards on 11 carries. Miller is their bet option at running back by a significant margin.

WIDE RECEIVER : Mike Wallace still leads the team with five touchdowns but he hasn’t scored in two games and is stuck around 50 yards per week. His best game still is only 81 yards and that was the season opener. Jarvis Landry scored in the win over the Chargers but exceeded 50 yards only once this year. Rishard Matthews only has six catches over the last five games but his last two single catch weeks both were touchdown receptions. Wallace remains the best bet but the others are contributing more and Matthews is a rare wide receiver who only catches touchdowns.

TIGHT END : Charles Clay really has no fantasy value because he is too unreliable. Clay scored in both week seven and nine along with 55 yards or more but those sandwiched the win over the Jaguars when Clay only managed one catch for one yard. To his benefit, Clay tends to matter more then tougher the opposing secondary is.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: The Lions allow at least one passing score to opponents but rarely much yardage and Tannehill has yet to prove he is much more than an average quarterback particularly on the road. The Lions have given up just one rushing score in Detroit which bodes poorly for the banged up Miller. The Lions secondary has been outstanding and allowed just one touchdown to a wide receiver over the four previous road games and that needed Drew Brees to happen – Aaron Rodgers and company were largely unsuccessful there. Miller and Wallace are only desperation plays this week playing in a very tough venue and going against the strength of the defense.

The Lions remain atop the NFC North and are on a three game winning streak though the last two wins both came by a single point. The upcoming schedule gets a but tougher with looming games in Arizona and New England but the band is getting back together. The return of Calvin Johnson now only adds to a team that found ways to win without playing “find Calvin” on every play. The bye came at an opportune time to get everyone healthy again.

QUARTERBACK : Matt Stafford’s stats fell off without Calvin Johnson at first and he was limited to lower yardage and just one score against the Bills and Vikings. But the last two matchups saw him throw for 299 yards and two scores on the Saints and 325 yards and two scores in Atlanta. The addition of Golden Tate has been exactly what this passing offense needed.

RUNNING BACK : This is where it gets harder to like. Joique Bell remains the main runner and was getting 14 to 18 carries per week with a couple of catches. He’s hasn’t topped 74 rush yards yet but scored in two of the last three games. But Reggie Bush has been less involved if not absent with injury for the last month. Bush was held out of the recent win in Atlanta and hasn’t been a factor since week four. But in his place. Theo Riddick played in week six and week eight where he scored in both and ended with around 75 receiving yards – more than Bush had in any game. Bush is back now and will take a bigger role than Riddick but the coaching staff already said they are not phasing the successful Riddick out of the gameplan. For now, the backfield turns into a rotation of three running backs all used in some measure that may constantly change.

WIDE RECEIVER : Calvin Johnson’s return will make an obvious big impact but in his absence Golden Tate was just that – golden. While he was held to 44 yards on seven catches in the win over the Vikings, the other three starts resulted in a touchdown and at least 130 yards in each game. Right now Tate owns four of the five 100 yard games by the Lions wideouts while Johnson only has one. This is bound to produce big things for the Lions offense and Matt Stafford.

TIGHT END : No fantasy value here. Brandon Pettigrew has the best effort with four catches for 28 yards. Eric Ebron has the lone tight end touchdown for the team.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: The Fins secondary has been good though they allowed both Alex Smith and Aaron Rodgers three touchdowns each and the Lions are getting Johnson back this week.The Fins defense is is about average versus the run and allowed seven scores to the position this year. There is no big weakness or strength for Miami and it all matters how the offense is applied. Stafford, Johnson and Tate are always must starts by now though Megatron has a little risk returning from injury. Since Bush is likely to share more with Riddick, it makes him a low end play at best since he has only one truly good game all year and even before his injury was marginal.

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