Predictions Summary Projections by Position Projection Team Boxes

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Prediction: PIT 31, NYJ 17 (Line: PIT by 4.5)

The 6-3 Steelers are on a three game winning streak and trail the Bengals by only a half game in the AFC North. The 1-8 Jets are on an eight game losing stretch that only seems to get worse. The Steelers won 19-6 in New York last year.

No matter what happens this season with the Steelers, no one will forget the last two weeks when they rolled up an NFL record 12 passing touchdowns and steam-rolled otherwise very good defenses of the Colts and Ravens. The win last week evened the score with the Ravens and now it will come down to the two remaining meetings with the Bengals. Both of the offensive explosions happened at home – now the Steelers have to get through four road venues over the next five game and they’ve only been 2-2 away from home including losing to the Browns (which seems more remarkable every passing week).

QUARTERBACK : These last two weeks have been a nice time to start Ben Roethlisberger though he was on many benches in week eight because he’d only scored ten times over the previous seven games. No matter – Big Ben has the new NFL record with six passing touchdowns in two straight games and merely 862 yards over those wins. Prior to week eight, Roethlisberger was having just a normal year with mostly one and two touchdown games and moderate yardage. He apparently sold his soul for a three-pack because this week he faces one of the weakest secondaries in the league. This is a road game though and that has been a factor in his past performances. He has set his expectation bar rather high for this game.

Roethlisberger passed for 264 yards and one score on the Jets last year.

RUNNING BACK : Le’Veon Bell hasn’t broken 100 rush yards since week three but he remains rock solid in total yards with over 100 every week until the win over the Ravens last Sunday. Bell turns in around six catches in every game for even more value in reception point leagues but he’s been light on scoring. His only rushing touchdown happened in the season opener but he caught a score in two of the last three games. LeGarrette Blount is just his caddy with no fantasy value.

Bell was held to only 34 yards on 16 carries in New York last time.

WIDE RECEIVER : The last few weeks have been great for all the receivers but Antonio Brown is having a season for the record book. He’s never caught fewer than five passes or 84 yards in any game. He’s topped 100 yards five times and scored eight touchdowns. He gets a dozen targets in every game and yet so far not one secondary has been able to even slow him down. Markus Wheaton scored in the last two weeks but that is the entirety of his value this year. He had never scored and was coming off a no-catch game before the last two weeks.

Martavis Bryant has only played in three games in his career and yet doesn’t know what it is like to NOT catch a touchdown. His yardage and catches are marginal but he’s scored in every game and twice in the last two. Bryant looks sharp and polished and mostly tall because he is 6-4 and six inches taller than either Brown or Wheaton.

Brown caught nine passes for 86 yards against the Jets last time, Emmanuel Sanders scored once on his three catches for 70 yards.

TIGHT END : With all the touchdowns to share, even Heath Miller scored in the last two games. His yardage tends to vary wildly though and is only a factor against a team that can stop the wide receivers.

Miller ended with six receptions for 84 yards on the Jets last time.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: Well this might get ugly. The Jets rushing defense has been good and allowed just one visiting runner to score along with only one runner to top 50 yards in New York. Expect another moderate rushing game by Bell who will add catches for a nice total. But the Jets have never given up less than two passing touchdowns. They have allowed 24 passing touchdowns in nine games. Yes, the passing should be easier – far easier – than what the Colts and Ravens put up against them the last two weeks though this is not a home game. No need to waste ink here – Roethlisberger and Brown are must starts and both Wheaton and Bryant are very reasonable risks for a fantasy start. The Jets are weak against tight ends as well but Heath Miller is too inconsistent to rely on.

The Jets are swirling clockwise around the drain and their only win all year was in the season opener at home by five points over the only NFL team that has never won a game. It isn’t a case of things falling apart – they were never together. One of the best defensive fronts has been neutered when every opponent just throws over the top of them. The bye waits after this week. We’ll see if all starters and coaches return in week 12 because they can never stop changing or they’ve just thrown in the towel on the year.

QUARTERBACK : One start by Michael Vick and he gets hurt. There’s money well spent. Vick faced the Chiefs and threw for 196 yards and one score but was sacked three times. Unlike week eight when he relieved Geno Smith, Vick did make it through an entire game without a turnover. I’ll assume that Vick starts and update it to Geno Smith later if that is warranted and as if you would be interested in starting either.

RUNNING BACK : While Chris Ivory takes the primary runner role and plays the early downs, the scoring problems of the Jets recently let Chris Johnson get more playing time as the passing formation back and he comes off a season best 69 yards on 11 runs and two catches for 32 yards. Johnson has three games where he failed to top 21 yards so he remains a huge risk to rely on. Ivory has two games over 100 rushing yards and scored four times this year but needs a soft rushing defense and a lower scoring game in order to get enough work to matter.

WIDE RECEIVER : Percy Harvin’s second game as a Jet resulted in 11 catches for 129 yards in Kansas City and that’s the first time any Jet gained more than 81 receiving yards in any game. He hasn’t scored yet but all combined the Jets only produced five touchdowns using wide receivers. Eric Decker has four of those and ends up right around 60 yards in every game no matter where or if Harvin is there or not. Getting 11 completions to Harvin could spell bigger things down the road but it starts to give defenses an idea of how the Jets intend on using him.

TIGHT END : Jace Amaro was held without a catch in Week 9 against the Chiefs. He did not receive even one target. One side effect of the new attention that Harvin is getting is that Amaro was yanked from the passing scheme. Until he shows up with anything fantasy relevant while Harvin is there, consider Amaro a bench player.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: There is a positive for the Jets in that S Troy Polamalu and ILB Ryan Shazier won’t be playing. The Steelers secondary is nothing special but the Jets sport one of the worst passing offenses in the NFL. Consider Ivory, Chris Johnson and Decker as moderate plays at best. Harvin deserves a fantasy start based on last week but make sure that Vick is starting before taking the chance.

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