Predictions Summary Projections by Position Projection Team Boxes

table td.bg-light-yellow {
background: #ffffcc; }

Prediction: SF 14, NO 31 (Line: NO by 4.5)

UPDATE: Mark Ingram is listed as questionable and was limited in practices this week. But both Khiry Robinson and Pierre Thomas are not going to play and Ingram is expected to play another full game.

The 4-4 49ers are on a two game losing streak and struggling on offense. The 4-4 Saints are on a two game winning streak and recently rediscovered their offense along with a penchant for winning all home games.

The Saints won 23-20 when the 49ers visited last year.

The 49ers are three games out of first place and already lost to the division leading Cardinals earlier this year. The season is coming perilously close to throwing in the towel despite the promise of a Super Bowl run to start the year. The loss to the Rams at home last week was especially harsh given the circumstances and what was on the line. There are several soft spots remaining on the schedule but the offense doesn’t spark much enthusiasm anymore and is losing all punch both in the rushing and passing game. This is no spot for a turnaround either.

QUARTERBACK : While Colin Kaepernick scores in every game, he’s been limited to single touchdown passes in three of the last four matchups and posted only moderate yardage in each. He rushed for fewer than 20 yards in each as well and still has not scored a rushing touchdown this year. Last week at home against the Rams, Kaepernick was sacked eight times and lost two fumbles including the goal line plunge that sealed the win (for the Rams).

Kaepernick passed for only 127 yards and two scores in New Orleans last year.

RUNNING BACK : Hard to believe the 49ers would end up as one of the worst units for running backs but Frank Gore rarely finds holes to run through and doesn’t get much done in the rare case he does. Gore ran in only one score all year and that was back in week two. He had 100+ yards in two home games but the last three weeks has seen him held below 50 yards each time. He has no role as a receiver and is averaging 38 yards per road game. Carlos Hyde takes up a few carries but does little with them. This is a rushing attack that needs far better blocking and maybe some youth for the primary back.

Gore rushed for 48yards on 13 carries versus the 49ers the last time.

WIDE RECEIVER : The average passing stats show up here where there has only been one instance of a wideout breaking 100 yards and that was Steve Johnson back in week three. Anquan Boldin scored twice this year and posted around 90 yards in both games. And oddly enough both were against the Rams and just two weeks apart. Michael Crabtree had early success in the season but scored just once in the last five weeks and never topped 50 yards in any of those games. Throw in Brandon Lloyd on occasion and you have enough production to make for one or two decent fantasy plays but it is spread out over four different receivers. Like the rest of the offense, this unit has declined sharply when faced with a decent secondary.

Boldin caught a touchdown on his six catches for 56 yards versus the Saints last season. No other wideout had more than one catch.

TIGHT END : All you need to know is that Vernon Davis, AKA “The Freak”, sits as the 28th best tight end in the NFL between Chase Ford who is the #2 guy in Minnesota and Daniel Fells who is the #2 guy in New York for the Giants. Davis scored in only one game this year and has never gained more than 44 yards in any game.

Davis caught four passes for 33 yards and one touchdown in New Orleans last year.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: The Saints are very Jekyll and Hyde this year between being home and away. In New Orleans, they have only allowed three passing touchdowns among the three visitors that included Aaron Rodgers. Nothing in the last eight games says that Kaepernick will throw for more than moderate yardage and one or two scores in a road game like this. The Saints at home have been great against the run and Frank Gore cannot generate much even against a bad defense. The only fantasy plays here – and they are risky – are Kaepernick, Boldin and Crabtree on the hope that there will be trash time at the end of the game and some easy to grab yards and a score. Davis faces a defense that has only allowed one score to a tight end and never more than 58 yards to the position. Leave him on your bench.

The Saints two game winning streak lifted them to a division leading 4-4 record and their claim to fame is that as badly as they have played this year – the other three teams in the NFC South are even worse. Beating the Panthers not only gave them the divisional lead, it allowed them their first road win of the year. The next five games are going to be brutal before the season ends with three easy matchups. And at least three of the four bad matchups come in New Orleans.

QUARTERBACK : About the worse you are going to get from Drew Brees is 300 passing yards and two touchdowns. Granted – you don’t always get much more since he’s reached three touchdowns only once. But his yardage remains golden every week and those two scores are reliable.

Brees passed for 305 yards and one touchdown on the visiting 49ers last year.

RUNNING BACK : Pierre Thomas and Khiry Robinson were both out last week but the Saints have been getting so much from Mark Ingram that all other running backs are taking a back seat – finally. Ingram ran for 100 yards and two touchdowns in Carolina on 30 carries and that after 172 yards and a score at home versus the Packers the previous week. Travaris Cadet helps out but was limited to only two runs and three catches. It seems odd that the Saints would wait until Ingram was in his fourth and final contract year before suddenly giving him 20+ carries per week but he’s getting the job done and the Saints are winning.

WIDE RECEIVER : The success of the rushing game and spreading the passing around is once again making these wideouts hard to rely on. Marques Colston has just one game over 65 yards since the season opened and hasn’t scored since back in week three. Brandin Cooks is getting the love in home games but on the road he’s been far less of a factor and comes off a three catch, 38 yard effort over the Panthers. In Detroit, he was held to just two catches for 23 yards. Kenny Stills caught a few long passes in recent weeks but is too unreliable to consider for a fantasy start.

Colston turned in five catches for 80 yards on the 49ers last year.

TIGHT END : Jimmy Graham is healthy again and scored in both of the last two games. What he is missing is multiple touchdowns or even high catch totals for the week. His seven receptions for 83 yards in Carolina last week is a good sign that he’s back to health and starts to get him back into rare air for a tight end.

Graham was held to only six receptions for 41 yards against the 49ers last time.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: The 49ers secondary has already given up a score in all but one game and as many as four passing touchdowns in week seven by Peyton Manning. Brees is plenty safe with his standard game but the 49ers have been tough against tight ends. They’ve only allowed three scores all year to the position and only once more than 45 yards but Graham is a must start anyway and the elite of his position. Ingram goes against a defense that just gave up two scores to Ronnie Hillman in their last road game. This is a nice spot for a wideout touchdown but it would be a coin flip between Colston and Cooks since they so rarely score.

table td.bg-light-yellow {
background: #ffffcc; }