BUMPS, BRUISES AND BOWOUTS

The value of running backs continues to be spotty. Week ten in the NFL served up very few difference makers and of the top backs, few were players anyone drafted last summer. Marshawn Lynch dominated the day with four touchdowns but the next best fantasy backs were C.J. Anderson, Justin Forsett and Denard Robinson. Though we are getting deeper into the season, wide receivers continue to turn in better numbers. Weather has yet to be a factor but will eventually impact northern players like Antonio Brown, Demaryius Thomas, Jeremy Maclin, T.Y. Hilton, Emmanuel Sanders, Jordy Nelson, Golden Tate and Randall Cobb. But until then the biggest fantasy points each week are being caught and not rushed.

FRESH FROM THE BULLPEN

The Buccaneers opted to start Josh McCown over the ineffective Mike Glennon. Though they lost to the Falcons, McCown turned in 301 passing yards and two touchdowns along with a team high 39 rushing yards to rank as a top five fantasy quarterback for the week. Impressive was that both Mike Evans (7-125, TD) and Vincent Jackson (8-75) led the team in catches instead of backs or tight ends. McCown’s next opponents are the Redskins, Bears and Bengals. Consider renewing your faith in the Buccaneer wideouts for the next few weeks.

Carson Palmer
is expected to miss the rest of the season with a torn ACL and that installs Drew Stanton as the starter again. That may not be a positive since his three previous starts this year resulted in only two touchdowns – both in the home game against the 49ers. Larry Fitzgerald never gained more than 57 yards in any game with Stanton while Michael Floyd sandwiched a nice 114 yard, five catch effort versus the 49ers with two single catch flops when visiting the Giants and Broncos. Just to make this worse, Stanton next opponent is the #1 pass defense of the Lions. After that are two meetings with the Seahawks, games in Atlanta and St. Louis and hosting the Chiefs. Stanton will need to throw but the Cardinals appear to be taking a step down without Palmer while facing a tougher schedule.  

At first glance, Zach Mettenberger’s second start was less impressive. After throwing for 299 yards and two scores versus the visiting Texans in week eight, the rookie was held to 179 yards and one touchdown in Baltimore. But he’s one to watch if not grab given that his upcoming schedule is one of the lightest of all quarterbacks. Mettenberger faces the Steelers, Eagles, Texans, Giants, Jets and finally at the Jaguars for week 16 fantasy championships.

MIDSEASON MAGIC

It is rare that free agents taken after mid-season turn into even average players, let alone every-week starters. But that is not to say it doesn’t happen or that you should ever stop searching for those gems.
He’s only played in four games, but the Steelers Martavis Bryant already scored six touchdowns. His yardage was moderate at best when he scored on the Texans and then doubled up touchdowns on both the Colts and Ravens. Going against the Jets this week in what became a trap game, he not only scored but ended with 143 yards on four catches thanks to an 80-yard touchdown. His team mate Antonio Brown only scored three times over those weeks.

Converted quarterbacks almost never make decent running backs but in the case of Denard Robinson we need to rethink that. After languishing on the Jaguars bench in 2013 and then through week six of this season, Robinson was finally given a shot as the starter and has yet to look back. He rolled up over 100 total yards for three straight games and scored in two of them. This week in London, Robinson was held to only 70 total yards by the Cowboys but still ran in two touchdowns. While all other Jaguars are risky fantasy plays at best, Robinson is a must-start.
The winless Raiders constantly trail on the score board but had not made use of their tight ends as receivers in several seasons – until now. In week eight, Mychal Rivera went from only one catch over the two previous games to leading the team with seven receptions for 83 yards in Cleveland. In Seattle the next week, Rivera again led the Raiders with eight catches for 38 yards and scored both receiving touchdowns. He now comes off the hat-trick with six receptions for 64 yards and one score versus the Broncos. Three straight weeks as a viable fantasy start and he’s likely still on your waiver wire.

The fourth-year wideout Chris Hogan has been little noted in his career spanning three teams but recent weeks has seen an uptick in his production and impact on the Bills.  Starting in week six, he’s played in each of the four games and three times ended with at least five catches. Last Sunday he caught the lone touchdown in the loss to the Chiefs. He also scored on the Patriots when he ended with five receptions for 72 yards. Sammy Watkins will always be the main focus for the Bills and Robert Woods remains the other starter but Hogan is making his name and value known.

While Odell Beckham began playing in week five, it was not until after Victor Cruz was lost that he became a starter and the newest preferred target for Eli Manning. In week seven, Beckham was held to 34 yards on four catches in Dallas but scored twice. Versus the Colts, he came away with a team high eight catches for 156 yards.  Last Sunday in Seattle and while being shadowed by Richard Sherman, Beckham managed seven catches for 108 yards. His schedule is actually improving now with the next opponents of the 49ers, Cowboys, Jaguars, Titans and Redskins.

MUSICAL BACKFIELDS

So many teams use rotations that a true primary back can be hard to find and even harder to hold on to since roles often change. Just because the season is over half-over doesn’t mean you should be comfortable with the distribution of carries and catches.

Anyone attached to the Broncos offense is worth owning and the backfield has already produced stars like Knowshon Moreno in 2013 and Ronnie Hillman this year. But Hillman suffered a foot injury in the win over the Raiders and had to leave in the fourth quarter when he had only rushed six times for 13 yards. Juwan Thompson had been the #2 back but only gained eight yards on four runs while C.J. Anderson rushed for 90 yards on 13 carries and added four catches for 73 yards and one score. While it is probably wise to drop your optimism about Thompson, grabbing Anderson   is not necessarily the move to make. A slimmer, faster Montee Ball is expected to return this week and practiced prior to being inactive versus the Raiders.  Sadly this says more that you should wait to see how it shakes out rather than take a chance on any of the three or even four backs who may get touches.

The Bills backfield is also hands-off after the return of Fred Jackson who ran for ten yards and added 39 yards on four catches. But Anthony Dixon remains the lead runner with nine carries for 62 yards and yet Bryce Brown gained 35 yards on seven carries and added a team-high six receptions for 65 yards versus the Chiefs. Never rely on a third of anything.

SUNDAY SNIPPETS

HUDDLE PLAYER OF THE WEEK

Marshawn Lynch – Aaron Rodgers is a contender but Lynch was miles better than any other running back when he ran for 140 yards, caught a pass for 23 yards and scored a total of four touchdowns. Better yet was that the Seahawks allowed Christine Michael and Robert Turbin to share ten carries and yet still gave all the touchdowns to Lynch including two in the fourth quarter. No hawks!

Salute!

DRAMA 101 – SOMEBODY HAS TO LAUGH, SOMEBODY HAS TO CRY

Sunday’s Couch Commentary

I’ll study it more in the offseason, but this year seems to be filled with much more two and three touchdown efforts by players and yet the decline in value is sharp – particularly in running backs. This week there were just four backs with 100 rushing yards but 12 receivers notched that many yards and with far more receptions for leagues that reward the category.

Every summer we draft based on what happened the previous year. After passing records fell in 2011, quarterbacks were red hot in 2012. Last year we went heavy for running backs not because there were so many but because there were so few. What will 2015 crave? We still have much of the season left but many fantasy owners are going to lose interest starting about this week and this is as far as the season that they will remember.

Where has the biggest values been? Andrew Luck? Do we just remember DeMarco Murray, Arian Foster and Matt Forte and forget that right now the top dozen backs ends with Matt Asiata who has half the score of Murray?

Tight ends have not been as clear though now that Gronkowski is in gear maybe that sticks. Julius Thomas and his 12 touchdowns. Not a lot of difference makers though.

Wide receivers have been great at scoring even if not always the ones we expected. But it seems that a larger number of them means many wait. And no telling what owners of Calvin Johnson and A.J. Green now think of taking an early wideout.

I’m guessing round one of 2015 will have Andrew Luck. Maybe Manning or Jimmy Graham at the end. And Antonio Brown and Demaryius Thomas. And nothing else but running backs.

The Game-O-The-Week? A nice surprise though with fewer points than I typically like.

49ers 27, Saints 24

Though it only totaled 51 points, it generated some nice fantasy games for players that always start and was helped in no small part by about ten extra minutes of overtime.

Colin Kaepernick only threw for 210 yards and one score but Anquan Boldin ended with 95 yards and one score. Frank Gore ran 23 times for 81 yards and score once and Carlos Hyde also found the endzone on his four runs for 36 yards. What the 49ers did right was only losing one fumble as opposed to a fumble and two interceptions by the Saints.

Drew Brees still threw for 292 yards and three touchdowns with Mark Ingram rushing for 120 yards on 27 carries and adding 19 more on three catches. Brandin Cools led the team with 90 yards on five catches and one score because he always shows up at home (and never on the road). Jimmy Graham ended with ten catches for 76 yards and two touchdowns to dominate all other receivers.

The Saints went ahead with 1:55 left to play when Brees hit Graham for a touchdown and a 24-21 lead but the 49ers drove the field on their next series and kicked a 45-yard field goal to tie with 49 seconds left. Regulation ended with Drew Brees throwing a 47-yard Hail Mary to Jimmy Graham for what would have been the winning score but Graham was called for offensive pass interference.

Overtime was unproductive and it looked like a tie in the making but on second down from his own 15-yard line, Drew Brees was hit from behind and lost the fumble. The 49ers immediately kicked the field goal to win.

It was a good week for football even with stupid games like the Steelers flopping against the worst secondary in the league and the Bengals apparently peaking long, long ago. Fantasy playoffs loom soon and these final weeks are critical to get right and make the post-season.

If you have teams that are no longer in contention – and everyone does if you play more than a few leagues – keep up with your starters and play the league out. Just because you won’t win the league doesn’t mean you should make it easy for the guy who does.

And besides, you get more time to contemplate the big question in life. Who will I want in the first round next summer?

Now get back to work…