Predictions Summary Projections by Position Projection Team Boxes

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Prediction: BUF 13, MIA 23 (Line: MIA by 5)

This inter-divisional battle is more about a wildcard than the division, and it is the second matchup between these teams this year. In week two, the Bills won 29-10 when they hosted the Dolphins the first time Knowshon Moreno was injured. Both are 5-4 on the season and the Bills are 3-1 on the road while the Dolphins are 2-2 at home. This is the Thursday night game.

The Bills are not a great team but they are definitely a good one that typically wins what they should. They handled the Fins with ease back at the start of the season but have been challenged to post many points in most games including five that never exceeded 17 points. This is an important game but no more so than any of the others now that the Bills are hitting the tougher part of their schedule. Three of the final four games go against teams leading their divisions.

QUARTERBACK : E.J. Manuel passed for 202 yards and one score in the previous meeting with the Fins. Kyle Orton has been more productive though he’s only played two road venues and one was against the weak Jets. Orton is posting 250+ yards every week usually multiple scores but this will be a test to see how he fairs against a solid defense on the road. His only other game away from home was when he passed for 308 yards and one score in Detroit.

RUNNING BACK : The backfield rotation is a mess currently with Fred Jackson returning from a groin injury but only he was limited to three carries for ten yards and four catches for 39 more. Anthony Dixon (9-62) never caught a pass and Bryce Brown ran for 35 yards on seven carries and caught six passes for 65 yards. Jackson will resume being the primary back but is being used less to prevent his groin from acting up again. Back in week two, C.J. Spiller gained 60 yards on 12 runs versus the Dolphins and Jackson ended with just 24 yards on 12 runs and two catches for 27 yards. This time there’s three backs in play, one is not 100% healthy and they are on the road.

WIDE RECEIVER : Marquise Goodwin suffered a rib injury last week but has no real value anyway. Sammy Watkins fell flat against the Chiefs but is coming off a groin injury he claims is over. Watkins first touchdown of the year was against the Bills when he ended with eight catches for 117 yards for one of his best efforts of the year. But his success has been mostly limited to home games and against weaker secondaries. Robert Woods was held to one catch for five yards in that game. Chris Hogan is making some noise with five catches in three of the last four games and a score in two of them. Hogan is adding to the passing game but at a slight expense of Woods production.

TIGHT END : Minimal fantasy value. Scott Chandler caught two passes for 27 yards but he’s scored just once all year and carries no reliability.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: The Dolphins allow a passing score each week be rarely more than one and no one has thrown for more than 280 yards on them regardless of venue. The rushing defense at home has been very good with only one runner ever topping 40 yards against them and only one runner scored a touchdown on them in the last six games and that was in Chicago by Matt Forte. With the mess in the backfield lower all expectations for the running backs here this week. Watkins already had a great game against them and is a must start each week anyway. But really no other players here are decent fantasy plays.

The last minute loss in Detroit ended a three game winning streak that included the 37-0 shutout over the Chargers in the most recent home game. The offense has been better about scoring points until last week when they faced the formidable Lions defense. A trip to Denver looms after this game and a later date in New England will also be tough but the Fins should be more than competitive in all others. The defense has quietly kept them in the winning column in most games. The Dolphins just lost their LT Branden Albert for the year with a torn ACL and that’s not going to help the rushing effort after the offensive line is shuffled to cover that big hole.

QUARTERBACK : Ryan Tannehill passed for 241 yards and one score on the Dolphins in week two. He’s scored in every game since and usually with more than one touchdown. and even higher yardage. Two of his best games of the year came in the two most recent home stands. He’s not above a lower effort when faced with a good defense but Tannehill has improved and still scores at least once.

RUNNING BACK : The Dolphins claim that Lamar Miller is okay and did not have a setback to his sprained AC joint in his shoulder but Miller was only given four carries to gain ten yards in the loss to the Lions. Damien Williams (7-34) and Daniel Thomas (5-14) also contributed to the rushing effort and Williams ended with three catches for 27 yards as well. Back in week two, Miller ran for 46 yards on 11 carries since Knowshon Moreno was knocked out of that game. Miller has been solid with a touchdown and/or 100 total yards but his shoulder injury still bothers him and there is no certainty that he will play well this week with an early Thursday game. The Fins already used three backs last week and just called up LaMichael James from the practice squad. That is not a positive sign for this week.

WIDE RECEIVER : Mike Wallace apparently cannot get away from 50-yard games. The last month has been nothing but efforts between 46 and 59 yards but Wallace scored in six games already this year and ended week two with five receptions for 56 yards in Buffalo. Jarvis Landry even managed five catches for 49 yards in that game and has since also banged around 50 yards in most weeks. His role has mean Brian Hartline is no longer fantasy relevant with just one score all year and only a 30 yard average per game. Hartline managed five catches for 36 yards in Buffalo for one of his better efforts of the year.

TIGHT END : Charles Clay is seeing more use in recent weeks but still scored only twice all year and rarely breaks 50 yards in any game. Clay caught seven passes in Buffalo this year but only gained 31 yards.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: The Bills defense is less formidable away from home but the pass defense has still been good enough to hold most opponents to only one passing score unless they already had a formidable passing offense which the Fins don’t. The Bills are weaker against the running backs and allowed four touchdowns to the position in the last two weeks after preventing any scores up until then. Running backs also do well receiving the ball against the Bills but the Fins are in a state of transition for roles with Miller clearly not 100% healthy and at least two if not three other running backs potentially at play. Expect the 240 yards and a score from week two as a baseline and he should log one more since it is at home. Tannehill is a moderate start and Mike Wallace should get his standard score and fistful of yards but no others are a safe or attractive play this week.

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