Predictions Summary Projections by Position Projection Team Boxes

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Prediction: NE 27, IND 34 (Line: IND by 2.5)

This is the late game on Sunday and a must watch. The 6-3 Colts lead the AFC South by two games while the 7-2 Patriots have their own two game lead in the AFC East. The Pats are only 2-2 in road games this year while the Colts are 3-1 at home but the Patriots are on a five game winning streak. Both teams are coming off their bye week.

The Patriots were already on a roll but taking down the Broncos handily stamps the Pats as one of the teams to beat – and maybe the best since they have the top record in the AFC. The Patriots defense has not really improved this year but the offense is taking shape and suddenly is back to posting major points every week with Rob Gronkowski finally back to form and back to standing in the end zone with the football in every game.

QUARTERBACK : That slow start to the season is in the rear view mirror now. Tom Brady has been on fire for the last month with 16 touchdowns scored over the last four games. He’s thrown for over 290 yards in four of the last five and is finally looking very comfortable again. Brady did enjoy that success with four of the last five games at home though so his road productivity may be different.

RUNNING BACK : The main reason that Brady is enjoying so much more passing success is that the Patriots do not run that much anymore. The answer to who would replace Stevan Ridley was really no one. Kinda Tom Brady? Shane Vereen continues with moderate total yardage and three receiving scores in the last three games while Jonas Gray never catches a pass and barely registers as a fantasy factor. For fantasy purposes this backfield is losing all value aside from Vereen catching touchdowns.

WIDE RECEIVER : Brandon LaFell doesn’t produce monster games but he almost never has a bad one either. He’s scored five times over the last six games and topped 95 yards in three of them. Oddly his worst games come when at home against a soft defense. Julian Edelman was the solid receiver to open the year but has since fallen from use to the point where he’s hard to consider without a really attractive matchup. Edelman only scored twice this year and rarely has more than 50 yards in any game.

TIGHT END : Timothy Wright scored three times this year and in each of the last three games in which he had a catch. Problem is that week seven and nine he had no targets at all. Rob Gronkowski is back to vintage form with nine catches for 100+ yards and a score in each of the last two games. He’s back to getting double-digit targets and becoming the unstoppable part of the offense. Gronk scored well enough to start the year to merit him as an every week fantasy starter but now he’s combing high catches, yards and scores to compete as the #1 fantasy tight end recently.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: The Colts have been outstanding against the pass at home and allowed just two passing touchdowns there but then again only PHI, TEN, BAL and CIN have visited. On the road they were victimized by Ben Roethlisberger for six scores. Pass defense has been one of the strengths of the Colts until recently but CC La Ron Landry is back from suspension which will help. Notable here is that the Colts are weak against tight ends and that paves the way for another nice effort by Gronkowski. The Colts have been very good against the run though gave up eight touchdowns to the position. No reason to bench the normal every week starters of Brady, Gronkowski, LaFell and Vereen.

This will be a nice test since the Colts were playing great and even shut out the Bengals but then were scorched by the Steelers. The rest of the schedule is really not bad though the Browns are looking more competitive lately. This week is the toughest game and it comes at home after a bye. Plus it not only helps the Colts to stay in the race for a bye in January, it would take down the only AFC team with a better record.

QUARTERBACK : This week is the battle of quarterbacks only Andrew Luck has been pitching big games every week without fail. His last three home games were all over 300 yards and he’s a lock for multiple touchdowns. Luck already threw for 26 touchdowns against just nine interceptions. Luck won’t cool down because he’s throwing 40+ passes every week and his rushing game is offering only minimal support. What makes Luck so dangerous is how he scores with all offensive positions.

RUNNING BACK : Trent Richardson remains the primary rusher but has just two touchdowns on the season and rarely more than 60 rush yards in any game. He has been good for four catches in home games though and offers at least marginal fantasy value. But he’s certainly not above a bad game and it doesn’t always take a great defense to make it happen. Ahmad Bradshaw runs for almost as much yardage as Richardson but adds more yardage as a receiver. He also scored twice as a runner and then six times as a receiver. Bradshaw has scored in six of nine games already.

WIDE RECEIVER : Reggie Wayne was out for week eight and Donte Moncrief filled in for seven catches for 113 yards and a score versus the Steelers. He’s since dropped back to negligible stats but at least he’s proven ready to step up whenever Wayne cannot play or retires. T.Y. Hilton is on a very nice streak with 100+ yards or a score or both for the last month. The oddity is that he has three touchdowns which all were scored over the last three road games – none at home. Hakeem Nicks hangs onto his job but offers no real fantasy value or even NFL value.

TIGHT END : Andrew Luck loves his tight ends and they account for 11 touchdowns. Since week two, at least one tight end has scored if not both Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen. While Fleener has four scores, he;s rarely good for more than 40 yards and throws in at least half his games with 40 yards or less. Allen is consistent enough for every week starts and scored in six of the last seven games.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: The Patriots are allowing a couple of scores per opponent and more in road games. The Colts currently sport the #1 passing offense anyway so Luck’s normal 300-3 should fit into the trends well. But the Patriots are also very weak against the running backs and not just rushing but as receivers as well. While five backs ran for 90+ yards on them, five different backs scored via a pass. The Pats gave up 11 scores to the position and Bradshaw should be a lock to score via a pass with six receiving touchdowns already. Darrelle Revis should draw T.Y. Hilton but they’ll move Hilton all over anyway. This smacks of a shootout so play your Colts. Luck, Hilton, Wayne, Allen, Bradshaw and even Richardson are all considerations this week.

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