Predictions Summary Projections by Position Projection Team Boxes

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Prediction: OAK 17, SD 31 (Line: SD by 10)

UPDATE: Ryan Mathews is expected to resume his job as the primary back and Branden Oliver returns to being just the #2 back.

This is a rematch of week six when the Chargers barely won 31-28 in Oakland in what was a trap game that did not quite happen. The winless Raiders can only hope that opponents fail to prepare for them and then get lucky but even that will likely only happen in a home game in Oakland. The 5-4 Chargers have to win to remain in the race for the playoffs.

The Raiders remain the only winless team in the NFL and unlike other bad teams, there hasn’t been much improvement or progress other than the Raiders are defining what they need to get with the #1 pick in the 2015 NFL draft. What makes it harder to evaluate the players and their true talent is that so many opponents are playing down to their level now knowing that they can beat them (and do, every time). Unfortunately, there isn’t a soft spot on the remaining schedule so any win will be an upset.

QUARTERBACK : Derek Carr has thrown for two scores in each of the last three games but all in trash time and he failed to top 200 yards in any of them. Carr passed for a season best 282 yards and four touchdowns in the first meeting with the Chargers but that was at home and in a trap game that still did not happen.

RUNNING BACK : The Raiders have only two touchdowns by a running back this year and both went to Darren McFadden in home games against the Texans and the Chargers when he ran for another season best 80 yards on 14 carries. McFadden has yet to gain more than 59 yards in any away game and has never scored away from Oakland. Maurice Jones-Drew continues to draw a paycheck for virtually nothing. The one-time stud running back now has a total of only 64 yards on 29 carries and 30 of those went against the Chargers.

WIDE RECEIVER : This unit is no better than the running backs. James Jones started the year as if he was a good add but has just one score in the last seven games and is stuck below 60 yards in all recent games. Brice Butler scored last week but only managed two receptions for 12 yards. Andre Holmes actually scored in three different games and had decent yardage in them but otherwise remains scoreless and below 50 yards every week including zero catches against the Broncos. Wideouts accounted for all four touchdown passes in the previous meeting and Holmes had a career best 121 yards and two scores. Butler (3-64, TD) and Jones (5-56, TD) also had one of their best efforts of the year.

TIGHT END : For the last three weeks, Derek Carr has noticed Mychal Rivera and suddenly made him a fantasy relevant tight end. Rivera posted 83 yards in Cleveland, then eight catches for 38 yards and two scores in Seattle followed by 64 yards on six receptions with one touchdown. After three straight impressive games, it is time to consider Rivera as a viable fantasy player. He was held to no catches on three targets against the Chargers though.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: Forget about week six. The Chargers at home have only allowed four touchdowns this year and no more than one since week two. The rushing defense has been better at home as well though Jamaal Charles was the only back to gain more than 44 yards there. The Charges are great against tight ends too so Rivera’s improvement may take one week off. There are no fantasy starts here that are more reward than they are risk. Jones is a low end flex sort of play at best.

The 5-4 Chargers come off their bye still in contention for the AFC West or at least a wild card but losing three straight games doesn’t offer much optimism. Being dominated by the Broncos was bad enough but then the Dolphins crushed them for the worse shutout of the year. The next two games are at home and should offer a great opportunity to get back on the winning track but the final five games will all be tough matchups for a team that looks like it peaked early in the season.

QUARTERBACK : Despite losing games, Philip Rivers posted multiple touchdowns in seven straight games before going cold in Miami. Nine games into the season, Rivers stands at 21 touchdowns against only eight interceptions but six of those picks came over the most recent three games – all losses. His fantasy value remains good but Rivers needs to reduce his turnover problem of recent weeks. He’s been better at home this year where he’s thrown for three scores in all but one game. Rivers passed for 313 yards and three scores in the first meeting with the Raiders.

RUNNING BACK : Ryan Mathews is expected to return this week after being out since week two with a knee injury. While Branden Oliver had some success, Mathews will be the primary back again. Oliver ran well against the Jets and Raiders but his last three games have been far less productive and he was held to only 19 yards on 13 runs in Miami. Oliver will still be involved but as the #2 man in the rotation. Mathews is certain to take all the short yardage and goal line work as well as early down rushing. Oliver ran for 101 yards and a score in Oakland back in week six. It was his last good game.

WIDE RECEIVER : Keenan Allen finally scored when the Chargers went to Denver but he was back to only four receptions for 47 yards in the loss to the Fins. Allen still gets around ten targets in most games but just rarely gets more than 50 yards. Eddie Royal and Malcom Floyd are even less productive. There is no reliable fantasy value in this crew. Allen was held to only three catches for 27 yards in Oakland this year while Floyd had his best game of the year with 103 yards and one score. Even Royal scored in that game.

TIGHT END : Like the rest of the Chargers, Antonio Gates was a dud in Miami last week but he scored six times over the previous four weeks and never less than one touchdown. His yardage remains moderate and never more than 65 yards in the last two months. But Gates is consistent and productive – more so than any other offensive player. Gates was held to only three catches for 27 yards but scored once in Oakland this year.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: Rivers already had a nice effort in Oakland and while he may not quite reach that mark he’s safe for good yardage and two scores at least. The Raiders already gave up a 100 yard game to Branden Oliver, the return of Mathews complicates that and should send Oliver back in the pecking order. But playing any back who has been out for nine weeks is a risk even against the Raiders. The Raiders are coming to town so roll out the regulars – Rivers, Gates and Allen with Mathews and Oliver as riskier plays.

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