Game Predictions & Player Projections - ARI vs SEA

Game Predictions & Player Projections - ARI vs SEA


Game Predictions & Player Projections - ARI vs SEA


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Prediction: ARI 13, SEA 24 (Line: SEA by 6.5)

UPDATE: Larry Fitzgerald is questionable this week with his MCL sprain but never practiced and will be a game time decision. Already a bad matchup, I am removing him from the projections based on the risk that he will not play and even if he does, he’ll be hobbled playing in SEA.

Here is a big game in the NFC West where the 6-4 Seahawks come off a loss to the Chiefs but return home where they are 4-1 this year. The 9-1 Cardinals have the best record in the NFL despite losing their starting quarterback for the second time this year and are 3-1 in road games. The Cardinals won 17-10 in Seattle last year in week 16. The Seahawks won 34-22 in Arizona.

Arizona Cardinals

1 SD 18-17 10 STL 31-14
2 @NYG 25-14 11 DET 14-6
3 SF 23-14 12 @SEA —–
4 BYE —— 13 @ATL —–
5 @DEN 20-41 14 KC —–
6 WAS 30-20 15 @STL —–
7 @OAK 24-13 16 SEA —–
8 PHI 24-20 17 @SF —–
9 @DAL 29-17  
News | Statistics | Roster
ARI @ SEA Rush Catch Pass
QB Drew Stanton 10 220,1
RB Andre Ellington 40 5-50
RB Chris Johnson 20 2-20
WR John Brown 5-60
WR Larry Fitzgerald
WR Michael Floyd 4-50
TE Jermaine Gresham 5-40
PK Chandler Catanzaro 2 FG 1 XP

The Cardinals took down the Lions but only because the defense played so well. The offense only managed 14 points and now hit a final six games that contain four away venues and only two home games – those against the Chiefs and Seahawks. Aside from the game in Atlanta, every week is going to be a challenge and yet maybe none so big as this week against a Seahawk team that is watching their playoff hopes vanish.

QUARTERBACK : Drew Stanton’s first game back as a starter went well enough with 306 yards and two scores but the bothersome aspect is that Stanton has played in three home games and scored in each. But his two starts on the road did not produce any touchdowns. He was held to 167 yards in New York against the Giants and later 118 yards in Denver. Either Stanton shows an immediate ability to perform on the road or that lofty record is going to start to turn around.

Palmer passed for 178 yards and one score in Seattle last year but had four interceptions.

RUNNING BACK : HC Bruce Arian said on Monday that they need more from Andre Ellington but the problem is they likely cannot get anything more from a runner who already handles about 25 touches every week. His production has waned in recent games against the Rams and Lions defenses. But Ellington has never rushed for more than 95 yards in any game. Ellington has been productive in past road games though most did not face top defenses and he did much of his damage as a receiver. Ellington is less a big play maker and more just a sign of how well the overall offense is performing.

Ellington ran for 64 yards on 15 runs in Seattle last year.

WIDE RECEIVER : Michael Floyd comes off a two touchdown effort over the Lions but those came on his only two receptions in the game and he still has not topped 55 yards in any of the last seven games. His two previous outings with Stanton had produced just one catch in each. Larry Fitzgerald was on a nice run where he ended with around 100 yards in each of the last three home games but was injured last week and only ended with 33 yards on two catches. Fitzgerald says he intends to play this week despite the Grade 2 MCL sprain but his previous four games with Stanton never produced a score or more than 57 yards in a road game.

John Brown has been the best bet with Stanton around. He caught three scores from him but the two road games they had in common ended with no more than 28 yards in either matchup.

Fitzgerald (3-18) and Floyd (1-31) had little impact in the win over the Seahawks last year.

TIGHT END : No fantasy value.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: The problem here is that the Seahawks have not allowed more than two passing touchdowns in Seattle though the yardage has occasionally been high thanks to facing the Manning brothers and Aaron Rodgers. Aside from DeMarco Murray, no runner gained over 40 rushing yards in Seattle this year and the Cardinals have not been a road warrior anyway despite their schedule. Ellington starts every week thanks to adding receptions to his total but Michael Floyd should draw Richard Sherman and Fitzgerald is banged up. Not a good equation for a team playing in Seattle.The Seahawks biggest weakness – tight ends – is the one that the Cardinals almost never use.

Gaining Fantasy Points ARI 19 16 8 28 13 6
Preventing Fantasy Points SEA 2 16 1 26 13 7

Seattle Seahawks

1 GB 36-16 10 NYG 39-17
2 @SD 21-30 11 @KC 20-24
3 DEN 26-20 12 ARI —–
4 BYE —– 13 @SF —–
5 @WAS 27-17 14 @PHI —–
6 DAL 23-30 15 SF —–
7 @STL 26-28 16 @ARI —–
8 @CAR 13-9 17 STL —–
9 OAK 30-24  
News | Statistics | Roster
SEA vs ARI Rush Catch Pass
QB Russell Wilson 40 180,1
RB Bryce Brown 20 3-20
RB Fred Jackson 20 4-20
WR Doug Baldwin 4-50
WR Jermaine Kearse 3-40
TE Jimmy Graham 8-90,2
TE Luke Willson 2-20
PK Steven Hauschka 1 FG 3 XP

The Seahawks are three games back of the Cardinals and coming off yet another road loss. The key so far is that they struggle against the better defenses and much more so when on the road but at home or against weak defenses they remain plenty good. But the problem is that good defenses is about all that is left on the schedule other than a trip to Philly that could be a problem with a lack of offense to keep up. The Seahawks are in a good situation to take this game but the remaining five will all be major challenges.

QUARTERBACK : While it was in a losing effort, Russell Wilson bounced back with a two touchdown effort last week for the first time in four games. After starting the season with four straight two score games, Russell has been much less effective and thrown just five touchdowns over the last six games. He’s been above 200 yards only once in the last six weeks but has added rushing yardage to his totals.

Russell threw for 108 yards and one score when they visited Seattle last year.

RUNNING BACK : The media likes to focus on Marshawn Lynch as an unhappy player and even prodding him with questions about his future in Seattle that he largely does not control anyway. But Lynch takes care of business on the field and booked two straight 100+ yard rushing efforts with the 124 yards on 24 carries he produced in Kansas City. He’s scored nine rushing touchdowns this year and every one was at home.

Marshawn Lynch ran for 71 yards on 18 carries versus the visiting Cardinals last year. He gained 91 yards and a score in the earlier meeting in Arizona.

WIDE RECEIVER : This has always been one of the least productive units in the NFL and losing Percy Harvin did not improve anything (or make it worse really). Doug Baldwin scored for only the second time this year when he ended with 45 yards on six catches in Kansas City and he’s stuck at around 50 yards every week if that. Jermaine Kearse is marginally better in yardage lately only he’s scored just once all year. There is no fantasy value here and won’t be with this group.

TIGHT END : No fantasy value. Luke Wilson had a season best 51 yards on three catches in Kansas City but the unit shares only three touchdowns and no tight end has more than one.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: The Cardinals pass defense is getting better but is more opportunistic than dominant and yet the Seahawks are never going to throw for much if they don’t have to – and maybe not even then. No reason to expect Wilson to break out of his six week long passing funk here. Marshawn Lynch faces a very good rush defense but is at home where he scored six times over the most recent two games. Lynch is a must start and at home has been a near lock for a big game. No other Seahawk stands out as a reasonable start this week.

Gaining Fantasy Points SEA 9 7 27 27 5 26
Preventing Fantasy Points ARI 12 1 25 24 5 5

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