Predictions Summary Projections by Position Projection Team Boxes

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Prediction: BAL 23, NO 24 (Line: NO by 3)

The 6-4 Ravens come off their bye only a half game out of the lead in the AFC North but with a 2-3 road record. The 4-6 Saints are on a two game losing streak and just lost their rookie wideout for a while. This is the third straight home game for the Saints and they are only 0-2 so far. This is a coin flip for the Monday night game.

The Ravens are just a half game back in the division but were swept by the Bengals so will need a better record to reach the postseason. But this team struggles against a solid defense and the offense has not improved in the second half of the season with the passing game dropping a notch. The schedule is about average but so are these Ravens when they leave home.

QUARTERBACK : Joe Flacco’s production is all over the map this year and even more so when he is in a road game. In his five away games, he scored a total of eight touchdowns but five came in the win at Tampa Bay. Twice he had no scores. Certainly when he faces a decent secondary away from Baltimore he’s been unable to post many point if in fact any. Bottom line – Flacco is not going to do better than a defense would allow most quarterbacks.

RUNNING BACK : Justin Forsett has been the only stable part of the backfield and comes off a season best 112 yards and two scores on 20 carries against the Titans. Forsett has been more likely to end up around 100 total yards in games and had only three scores until last week. Lorenzo Taliaferro was the #2 back and even scored twice in week eight but had a fumble in week nine that left him out of the game plan for week nine when Bernard Pierce went from just one carry the previous week to eight runs for 31 yards. Forsett is the only fantasy play here short of playing a really weak rushing defense but even then you cannot be certain who the #2 back of the day will be.

WIDE RECEIVER : Maybe Steve Smith wore down quickly and the bye helps him get fresh legs again. After a hot start to the season, Smith hasn’t topped 36 yards for three straight games and hasn’t scored since week six. Torrey Smith has come on stronger in recent games and scored in four of the last five but his yardage remains around 60-80 per week and in week eight in Cincinnati. Torrey had no receptions on his two targets. Only the Smiths matter in the passing scheme and so far Steve Smith has dropped out for the most part.

TIGHT END : Owen Daniels has almost no fantasy value. He scored in the home meeting with the Falcons but that was the only touchdown in the most recent seven games and his yardage rarely exceeds 50 yards in any week.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: The Saints at home have played better defense and those average yards and one or two scores that Flacco tends to have fits in perfectly. The Saints were great against the run until Jeremy Hill just laid down 152 yards there last week. Forsett is a starter here and has a chance for nice game with a score. Torrey Smith is in the best situation to catch a score and has been the hotter receiver lately anyway.

On the plus side, the NFC South is so horrible this year that the Saints are tied with the Falcons for the lead with a 4-6 schedule. But the Saints have lost their last two games – both at home and against decent opponents. The Saints are only 1-4 on the road so far and that bodes poorly for playing outside in Pittsburgh and Chicago soon. This week has to be a “stand up and fight” because a loss drops them to an unthinkable 4-7 mark and three straight home losses in a row. Losing Brandin Cooks is no help, but there is still the talent here to take this game.

QUARTERBACK : Drew Brees comes off his worst game of the year when he only managed 255 yards and one score versus the Bengals. Brees was on an eight game stretch of multiple touchdowns and around 300 yards in almost every game. Brees needs this game to turn around the team direction and the rushing effort is not likely to contribute a lot this time.

RUNNING BACK : After three straight weeks of 100+ yards, Mark Ingram was held to only 67 yards on 23 carries by the Bengals but it is still notable that he gets all the running back load. He did add seven catches for 30 yards so his fantasy value was still intact at least in reception point leagues. Ingram has six touchdowns on the year so far though only one came at home. There is some speculation that Travaris Cadet may get more work with Cooks out but he’s been well under the fantasy radar all year and is nothing more than a third down back who catches three or four passes per game.

WIDE RECEIVER : Brandin Cooks broke his thumb and has been placed on season-ending injured reserve. Cooks has not been much of a factor on the road but at home was on a streak of 90 yard game and turned in more catches and yardage than any other wideout. Marques Colston scored just once all year back in week two and aside from one freak game in Chicago, has been locked to 50 yard games with minimal impact. Kenny Stills should benefit from Cooks absence and he had the only score against the Bengals but that came on only four catches for 32 yards.

TIGHT END : Jimmy Graham was held to only three catches for 29 yards by the Bengals but had four scores over the previous three weeks. He’s been good for around seven catches for 70 yards in most recent games but has not topped 100 yards since week two. Graham is certain to get more targets with Cooks out.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: The Ravens at home have been outstanding against the pass but on the road have allowed multiple scores it the last four opponents including that six touchdown game that Ben Roethlisberger hung on them in week ten. The rushing defense is outstanding as well but more so at home. On the road they have allowed four touchdowns to opposing running backs and the Saints are feeding the rock to Ingram in a big way lately. Brees, Graham and Ingram are sure starts and even Stills or Colston could show up better this week but are a big risk given their stretch of marginal games this year.

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