Predictions Summary Projections by Position Projection Team Boxes

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Prediction: DET 20, NE 30 (Line: NE by 7)

The 7-3 Lions are only 3-2 on the road and not looking as good as they should with players back from injury. The 8-2 Patriots look like a team that not only got their motor running correctly, but it’s a big block V-8.

The Lions have a great record but mainly by winning almost all of their close games and invariably ones at home. They have actually had one of the lighter schedule in the league and yet still have struggled on offense to post points and have been stuck at 24 or fewer in every game since the season opener. The defense has been very good but then again they have not faced any decent offenses. And yet for all that, after this week their schedule gets incredibly light with three straight home games against the Bears, Bucs and Vikings. What happens this week really doesn’t matter much.

QUARTERBACK : Matt Stafford has all his tools back and yet was unable to throw a touchdown last week in Arizona and ended with a season worst 183 yards and one interception. Stafford has yet to score more than twice in any game and needs a soft matchup to post more than average passing yardage. There is a distinct and noticeable drop off from last year.

RUNNING BACK : Reggie Bush is expected back this week but all that will do is diminish what Joique Bell gains. Bush has been a major disappointment this year with only one touchdown and rarely more than 50 yards in any game if in fact he is healthy enough to play. His role as a receiver has been marginal and he is gaining only 3.6 yards per carry and averaging only 27 rush yards per game. Theo Riddick takes a back seat when Bush is there even though he caught three passing touchdowns already. Bell hasn’t scored in three games and usually ends up around 70 total yards per game. All combined this three-man rotation only produces moderate value and that is against a soft schedule.

WIDE RECEIVER : While Calvin Johnson’s first game back from injury resulted in 113 yards and a score versus the Dolphins, he was held to only 59 yards on five catches in Arizona and currently stands at just three scores on the year – two of which were in the season opener. Johnson has just two efforts that netted more than 100 yards and for a player who was drafted in the first round last summer, he’s one of the bigger disappointments after ruling the positions for a few years. Golden Tate had an off game in Arizona as well but has been… well… golden for the last seven games. Tate has five efforts over 100 yards and has been the only offensive star for the Lions this year.

TIGHT END : No fantasy value.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: The Patriots usually allow two or three touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks but Stafford has yet to have more than two. They have been weaker against tight ends that the Lions never use and great against wide receivers and Darrelle Revis naturally matches on Johnson. This year it seems that now matters. Once again it is more likely that Tate does better. You cannot bench Megatron ever and Tate should be a consideration. Stafford is stuck being a slightly better than average quarterback and the only running back that is likely to have at least moderate stats is Bell.

For all the struggling at the start of the season, these Patriots suddenly look as good as any team out there and maybe better. The offense has churned out an average of 40 points per game over the last six played while the defense has held opponents to 25 points or less. This week is no gimmee but it is at home and the Lions certainly look worse than their standings suggest. Road trips to Green Bay and San Diego could be stumbling blocks but this once again looks like another year with plenty of Patriots in the postseason.

QUARTERBACK : Tom Brady is back to high flying production with at least two or more touchdowns in every game and high yardage each week. He was held to only 257 yards and two scores in the Colts win because of the success of Jonas Gray but Brady will always get that level of production, even in a game where he does not need it. His last three home games totaled 12 touchdowns.

RUNNING BACK : It became the Jonas Gray show last week when the previously unknown third-year player paved the Colts with four touchdowns and 199 yards on 38 carries. Those were the first four scores of his career and more than doubled his career output in yardage and carries. Shane Vereen only ran once for 18 yards in that game and caught four passes for 59 yards. The Patriots are not going to become a run-first team but this is also not the last we will see of Gray who ran with such power and determination that he’s certainly bought a starting gig. It was a magic night for a player who is on his third NFL team and just finally is not on a practice squad.

WIDE RECEIVER : Julian Edelman has been a nonfactor this year and though he suddenly had nine catches for 89 yards and a score on the Broncos, he went right back to just a 50 yard game versus the Colts. Brandon LaFell was held to 62 yards on three catches by the Colts but has five scores on the year and two efforts over 100 yards. He is the primary wideout and usually good for the 60 yard level with a score about every other game.

TIGHT END : Timothy Wright caught his fourth touchdown for the Pats and he’s scored in every game that he has a catch. Unfortunately, two of the last six games were when he was blanked so his fantasy value is minimal from the risk of getting a zero catch game. Rob Gronkowski is back to form with five touchdowns over the last three weeks and always healthy yardage.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: The Lions have been outstanding against the pass this year though they have not faced many decent quarterbacks. None have tossed more than two scores on them though on the road they are playing softer in the secondary and Drew Stanton just posted 306 yards and two scores on them. The rushing defense has been great as well with no one running for more than 84 yards. But the Pats are at home and on a roll while the Lions are on the road where they are weaker. Brady, Gronkowski and LaFell all merit starts and both Vereen and Gray as well though they’ll not see the same level of success this week as they did last week. Gray’s role is still less defined outside of the one monster game.

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