FIRST DOWN – CHASING POINTS

Everyone, and by everyone I mean most, loves to hop on the guy coming off of a big game. Some guys have future upside and their big game can highlight that future value but many times a player has a big game and people go crazy to get them off of waivers or to trade for them so they can have the next stud in the making. I call that chasing points, and in fantasy football that’s not a wise thing to do…as you’ll see when you look at the charts below. After 10 weeks, there have been 145 instances where a player has scored 25 or more fantasy points in a game. Quarterbacks have accounted for 42 of those games, running backs for 37, wide receivers for 57 and tight ends for 9. The following charts will show which player had one of those games and then the amount of points they scored in their next game. The last column will show the percent that their next game increased or decreased versus their big week. Boxes highlighted in yellow are games that followed a bye week. You may or may not find this helpful but at a minimum you should get two things from these numbers: 1. Players rarely trump a big game in their next game and 2. In DFS you might want to think twice about plugging in a player that is coming off of a big game.

All scores are based on Huddle Expert league scoring: Link

As you can see, only four quarterbacks – Russell Wilson (+36.85%), Peyton Manning (+30.13%), Aaron Rodgers (+27.00%) and Andrew Luck (+0.20%) – are the only QBs to increase their points following their big game. Luck leads all QBs with 6 big games, followed by Aaron Rodgers (5) and Peyton Manning (4). It’s understandable that so many big games were followed with lesser scores but 57% of those games were followed by sub 20-point efforts and 21% were less than 15 points.

The QB position had the smallest decrease of all the positions and the running back position was the ranked 3rd. Like the QB position, only four times did a player increase on their big game. Marshawn Lynch’s 31.95% increase to 41.30 points was the biggest percentage increase and also the most points scored. Matt Forte (+8.96%), Arian Foster (+6.57%) and DeMarco Murray (5.56%) were the other three to increase their big game points scored. When it comes to running backs, 27% of big games are followed up with a single digit performance (don’t chase points!) and 38% are followed up with less than 15 fantasy points scored. Murray (4), Lynch (4) and Foster (4) lead the way with the most big games this so far this year.

I can’t be the only one to think it’s odd that just like QB and RB, there are only four instances where a WR increased their fantasy output from their big game. Rookie Mike Evans’ 56.47% increase was the largest increase among the four. Demaryius Thomas had an increase of 30.63 over one of his big games, Brandon Marshall was able to increase his week 10 performance 11.11% in week 11 and Antonio Brown rounds out the four with a 5.75% increase over his week 3 score of 31.00 points. Jordy Nelson (4) and Antonio Brown (4) are the only WRs to have more than three big games of 25 or more fantasy points scored. At the WR position 32% of big games were followed by single digit performances (don’t chase points!) and 52% are followed up with fewer than 15 fantasy points scored.

Jimmy Graham (+38.97%) is the only TE to increase his point total coming off of a big game. Overall the TE position saw the biggest decrease following big games. I should also point out that in the above chart I listed all games where a TE scored 20 or more points. I did that because so few scored 25 or more fantasy points. The TE position followed up big games with single digit efforts in an alarming rate of 53% of the time. There was also only four times where a big game was followed up by another big game. Jimmy Graham (4), Julius Thomas (4) and Martellus Bennett (4) lead all TEs with the most big games. 

SECOND DOWN – THE RETURN OF FLASH GORDON

If you are a Josh Gordon owner you have likely been sitting on him for a very long time just biding your time until he returned from his suspension. Well, he’s back and you know what, he belongs in your lineup this week. Ignore the coach speak about him being on a pitch count and all that mumbo jumbo. Even if he’s on a pitch count he very easily could catch 5 balls for 100+ and a score or two. Gordon hasn’t been the best of red zone targets, catching just 5 balls for 1 TD last year. Gordon has proven to be a big-play WR. Last year he had nine catches of 40 or more yards – eight of those catches occurred while the Browns were trailing. 64 (74%) of his catches went for 1st downs. Last year Gordon averaged 6.6 catches, 129.9 yards, and .70 TDs per game in losses and 5.25 catches, 86.75 yards and .50 TDs in Browns’ wins. Last year, after sitting out the first two games of the season (yes, another suspension), Gordon went off for 10 catches, 146 yards and 1 TD. Additionally, last season Gordon had four big games (25+ points) and in those four games he increased his point total twice. I dare you to find another WR3 that has more upside than Gordon does this week…you won’t. Why do I call him a WR3? Because if you’ve had him stashed you clearly have been starting other WRs so it’s not like your plugging him in as your WR1…even though that’s what he’ll give you this week.

THIRD DOWN – Steve’s Seven Sleepers

The Panthers and Steelers are on a bye this week and they are also the final two teams that wrap up this year’s bye weeks. Check out my seven sleepers that I think can help you cover a bye week issue. To qualify the player can’t rank in the top-36** at their respective position based on the season long rankings in the Huddle IDP Expert League. I thought it’d be nice to show how my sleepers did the previous week so you’ll also find last week’s sleepers with the amount of points that they scored. I also want to add that I’m trying to target players that should be available on waivers.

*Top-12 for QB & TE. **Top-15 for QB & TE.  

There’s no denying that picking sleepers from the parameters that I’ve set forth is difficult but that doesn’t excuse my lackluster (that’s putting it mildly) performance the past two weeks. Brian Hoyer didn’t hit the 20 point plateau but 16.60 points is a solid performance if you are streaming QB. After Hoyer, Ryan Mathews, 8.50 points, wasn’t horrible, but was far from great too. This week I love Josh McCown’s matchup against a Bears team that has given up more fantasy points to QBs than any other team has this year. Eight of 11 QBs that have faced the Bears have scored more than 18 points against them and two have broke the 30 point barrier. At RB Isaiah Crowell ranks outside the top-36 RBs in fantasy scoring, so I’m tabbing him as my sleeper. With Ben Tate cut Crowell isn’t exactly a sleeper but if you own him you may not be sure if you should start him against the Falcons this week…you should. Season to date the Falcons have given up the most fantasy points to RBs and there have been 10 instances of double-digit games and of those four were better than 20 points. With Brandin Cooks now on injured reserve I’m looking for Kenny Stills to see a nice bump in fantasy value and that starts this week against a Ravens team that’s given up the 2nd most points to WRs this year. I’ve tried not to pick players that I know weren’t drafted as my sleepers but this week I’m going with Vernon Davis at TE. At this point, with Davis having scored single digits in his last seven games I’m betting he might be available on a few waiver wires and if not, he’s surely collecting dust on your bench. This week, dust him off as he faces a Washington team that over the past month ranks 7th in PPG allowed to TEs.

Vinny Curry is a risk/reward play at DL this week. Playing in Philadelphia and coming off of a horrible loss to the Packers I’m expecting the Eagles to turn it up offensively and put it to the Titans. If that happens then Curry and company will get to pin their ears back and get after Zach Mettenberger. At LB, Anthony Hitchens is starting due to injury but all that matters is that he’s facing a Giants team that has given up the 4th most PPG to LBs this year. Louis Delmas is having a nice run over his last 2 games, having logged 5 and 6 solo tackles, but what I like his that he’s facing a Broncos team that ranks 8th in PPG allowed to safeties over the last month.

FOURTH DOWN – TRENCH WARFARE

At least this will be trench warfare without snow warfare. If you haven’t seen what Ralph Wilson Stadium looks like with all the snow they’ve gotten take a look at this photo and this one too. Due to the snow the game is being played in Detroit on Monday an with this game being on turf indoors there’s a good chance the Jets could try to attack the Bills rush defense on the edges with Chris Johnson.

Jets Rushing Offense

Bills Rushing Defense