Predictions Summary Projections by Position Projection Team Boxes

table td.bg-light-yellow {
background: #ffffcc; }

Prediction: SD 13, BAL 31 (Line: BAL by 4.5)

The 7-4 Chargers are on a two game winning streak but are only 2-3 on the road. The 7-4 Ravens are also on a two game winning streak and are 4-1 in home games. Defense and home venue get it done for the Ravens.

A bit bothersome that the last two road games totaled only 12 points by the Chargers and what was good to great passing efforts though week eight have since really declined. The Chargers are starting to look like a team that either peaked early or one that just had a nice early schedule and does well in home games (bingo). Two of the remaining five games will be played in San Diego but go against the Patriots and Broncos. Unfortunately, the worst five game stretch of the year starts now.

QUARTERBACK : Philip Rivers was tossing three scores per game and posting big yardage but it just stopped at midseason. In the last three games, he’s thrown single touchdowns in two and was scoreless in Miami. He failed to break 200 yards in two of them as well. By now the defenses are wise to Rivers ways and he’s sure to be pressured to throw more in the coming weeks.

RUNNING BACK : Ryan Mathews returned in week 11 to gain 70 yards on 16 carries versus the Raiders. Last week he only rushed 12 times and gained 105 yards and one score against the Rams. Branden Oliver remains involved as a third down back but remains well below 50 total yards per week with no fantasy value. Mathews has only played in four games this year and the last three were all at home.

WIDE RECEIVER : The passing stats have been down but last week Keenan Allen managed his best fantasy game of the year with six catches for 104 yards and one score. On the season he’s only managed three games of any note but still gets ten to twelve targets in most games. He’s been consistent with around 70 yards in most recent games. No other receiver has more than 50 yards since the start of the season. Malcom Floyd scored four times but rarely exceeds 60 yards in any game.

TIGHT END : Antonio Gates is playing like he a bottle milk in the refrigerator with a expiration date of Halloween. He just never gets the looks for the last three weeks and has averaged just 25 yards in those games with no scores. Week eight ended his four game scoring streak.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: The passing struggles are not likely to improve this week against a Ravens defense that has only allowed four passing scores over the five home games. The Ravens at home are also great against the run with no runner topping 59 yards there and none rushing in a touchdown. The high ranking against wideouts stems from the Steelers and Saints posting big yards and scores on them away from Baltimore. At home only three have managed to score on them. This will be a lesser game for Rivers, Mathews and Gates. Still like Allen as a moderate play for yardage with a shot at a score.

The Ravens are playing better in recent weeks and all along their problem was facing good teams away from home. Getting swept by the Bengals could also interfere with winning the division but the remaining schedule looks very favorable. Three home games that should all be wins and then challenges in Miami and Houston. The road problem won’t be solved this week but at least playing at home has been great for the defense that has allowed only ten points per game on average when playing in San Diego.

QUARTERBACK : Joe Flacco has been rather inconsistent in recent weeks but that comes from the success of the rushing effort that has been red hot for the last month. Flacco generally scores in every game and the two exceptions were on the road. But his most recent five games have varied from as good as 306 yards and five scores in Tampa Bay down to only 195 yards and no scores in Cincinnati. In most weeks, the offense does well enough that Flacco has not needed to throw too much to get the win.

RUNNING BACK : Now that the ghost of Walter Payton has inhabited the body of Justin Forsett, he comes off back-to-back 110+ yard efforts with two touchdowns in each. Lorenzo Taliaferro has all but disappeared and Bernard Pierce only turns in around 30 yards per week. But Forsett already has seven touchdowns on the year and around 100 total yards nearly every week. Seems a shame it took Forsett seven years to figure out how to channel Sweetness.

WIDE RECEIVER : Steve Smith Sr. comes off a four catch, 89 yard effort in New Orleans complete with his first touchdown since week six. Smith was banging around 20 to 40 yards for the last month before coming around against the Saints. Torrey Smith is the one who started slowly and now is how with a total of six touchdowns on the season and a near lock for 60+ yards in every game with a score in four of the last five. No other wideouts matter here.

TIGHT END : Owen Daniels is a nonfactor who was churning out 50 yard games but has recently turned into more of a blocker for Forsett. Daniels only managed 27 yards over the last two weeks combined.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: The Chargers are one of those teams with a big difference between home and away. At home they only allowed six touchdowns over six games. On the road, they gave up 13 scores over five games and each of the last three have allowed 280+ yards and three touchdowns or more. That included Derek Carr and Ryan Tannehill. The Bolts are great against tight ends but Daniels doesn’t do much anyway. Wideouts do great against them away from San Diego as well. Expect a bett3er than average game here by Flacco, Forsett, Smith1 and Smith2

table td.bg-light-yellow {
background: #ffffcc; }