Predictions Summary Projections by Position Projection Team Boxes

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Prediction: ATL 20, GB 38 (Line: GB by 11.5)

UPDATE: Roddy White has not practiced this week because of his ankle and while HC Mike Smith would not rule him out for Monday, the signs are not encouraging. I am going to downgrade White and be aware that he is not yet a lock to play and may end up as a game time division. If you want to use White, you better also own Harry Douglas as a substitute. And even Douglas is playing on a sore foot.

The Falcons are stop the NFC South but are only 5-7 and 2-4 on the road. The 9-3 Packers are 6-0 at home and aiming for that #1 bye. The Packers won 22-21 over the Falcons last year. This is the Monday night game and it will be cold.

The Falcons come off a nice win over the injury ravaged Cardinals but playing any decent team on the road has resulted in major losses. The remaining schedule features two home games versus the Steelers and Panthers – always a chance at home – and then a trip to New Orleans for what will likely be the NFC South crown.

QUARTERBACK : Matt Ryan scored in every game this year and comes off one of his better efforts when he threw for 361 yards and two scores on the visiting Cardinals. But Ryan is different on the road where his most recent four games have all ended with only one passing touchdown and moderate yardage. Ryan has been good with the ball and only thrown thee interceptions over the last six games. But all his best games were either at home or at the very start of the season.

RUNNING BACK : Steven Jackson comes off his first 100 yard game of the year when he ran for 101 yards on 18 carries but that was really a surprise 55 yard run and then 17 carries for 56 yards (much more normal). This remains a terribly split up backfield with Devonta Freeman getting about eight carries and even Jacquizz Rodgers pitching in a few as well. Jackson has five touchdowns on the year but all came at home or against soft defenses and he’s been held under 60 rush yards in all but two games this year.

WIDE RECEIVER : Roddy White was held out last week because of a sprained ankle and his status this week won’t be known until later on. Problem too is that as a Monday night game, your only option is to own Harry Douglas as well. I’ll assume he can play at least a limited role this week and update as warranted. Again – Monday night game may make any decision risky.

Julio Jones (10-189, TD) and Harry Douglas (9-116) tore up the Cardinals last week in a game that all went horribly wrong for them. But Jones scored in only one road game all year and been held to less yardage away from home. Douglas has been the #3 when White is healthy and had no fantasy value until last week. The reality to the Falcons is that their entire offense is predicated on White and Jones. On the road and with either banged up makes it hard to win.

TIGHT END : No fantasy value even though Levine Toilolo caught a touchdown last Sunday for the first time since the season opener.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: The Packers at home have allowed one or two scores to every opposing quarterback but most end with just average yardage. Visiting running backs have only scored twice all year in Green Bay which bodes poorly for the Falcons run game. In the end this is going to come down to how well the Packers guard the wideouts but if they get a big lead – rather likely – then there could be significant trash time yards and even a score. None of the running backs carry value this week but both Jones and White are always worth a start when healthy.

The Packers remain tied with the Eagles and Cardinals for the #1 seed in the NFC but the Cards will fall out soon enough so it will come down to the Eagles all going as expected. The Packers have a good shot at winning out though that week 17 hosting of the Lions may end up being for the division – forget about the first round bye. This is the easiest matchup left on the schedule but at least it is on Monday night which usually prompts a big game from Aaron Rodgers.

QUARTERBACK : Aaron Rodgers remains on a torrid pace and posted 368 yards and two scores on the Patriots last week. He’s scored three or more touchdowns in seven games so far and is third with passing touchdowns (32) on the year. At home, Rodgers scored 20 times over six games and only once less than three times.

RUNNING BACK : Eddie Lacy’s streak of 100+ total yards extends to the last five games and he’s already scored nine times with three coming from receptions over the last four weeks. He’s topped 100 yards just twice as a runner but gets used extensively as a receiver when the need arises.

WIDE RECEIVER : Last week the Patriots tried to take away both Randall Cobb and Jordy Nelson and Davante Adams ended up with a career best six catches for 121 yards not counting the touchdown he dropped at the end of the game. Nelson still ended up scoring once and Cobb would catch seven passes for 85 yards. Cobb and Nelson remain the most prolific two wideout set in the NFL with 20 touchdowns and nine 100 yard games between them.

TIGHT END : Richard Rodgers scored in each of the last two games but his yardage is minimal and he carries no fantasy value or reliability.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: The Falcons defense is bad. And it is worse on the road. And it would be ranked even worse versus the pass if it wasn’t for so many teams just rushing the ball so much. The Packers are unlikely to run 40 times like several teams have against the Falcons. Expect a great game from Rodgers – it is Monday night – who should have high 200 yards and two scores at a minimum with upside for many more. This is where you want Lacy who should rack up 100+ total yards again and score at least once if not twice. Nelson and Cobb? They are worth considering even on their bye week.

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