Predictions Summary Projections by Position Projection Team Boxes

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Prediction: DEN 27, SD 24 (Line: DEN by 4)

UPDATE: Ryan Mathews has not practiced and while he is still considered questionagle I am removing him from the projections.

This is a replay of week eight when the 10-3 Broncos won 35-21 over the visiting 8-5 Chargers. The Chargers are only 5-2 at home but the Broncos are only 3-3 on the road. And 4-0 in the division when they know they have to win.

The final schedule doesn’t look as hard as it did to start the year but that doesn’t mean three wins are a given. All losses this year have been away from Denver and facing the Chargers in particular can end up as one of those “throw out the records” events that surprise. At least the weather should be good for this and Peyton Manning can make amends for suddenly screwing every owner in their playoffs last week when he had a clunker at the worst possible time.

QUARTERBACK : Peyton Manning did the unthinkable when he ended a 51 game streak of games with a touchdown. He only threw for 173 yards and two interceptions in the win over the Bills. But he passed for 286 yards and three scores in the previous meeting with the Chargers. and has been good for multiple touchdowns and big yardage in all other games.

RUNNING BACK : Back in week eight, Ronnie Hillman ran for 109 yards on 20 carries and added 29 yards on three catches versus the Chargers. Juwan Thompson scored two short touchdowns in that game while C.J. Anderson was only given one carry. Now that Anderson is the starter, he’s been on fire for the last three weeks with over 160 rush yards in the first two and then while he only gained 58 yards on 21 carries versus the Bills, he rushed in three touchdowns in that game. This time Anderson starts and Thompson adds in five to ten carries depending on the game flow.

WIDE RECEIVER : In the last meeting with the Chargers, Demaryius Thomas caught eight passes for 105 yards while Emmanuel Sanders merely ended with nine receptions for 120 yards and three touchdowns. Both receivers were less effective in recent weeks against the Chiefs and Bills but both of those were wins anyway and they already had huge success against these Chargers. West Welker was held to only five yards on two catches in that matchup but has been slightly better in recent weeks.

TIGHT END : Julius Thomas was active last week but did not play a snap. He’s expected to actually take to the field this week. He was held to only 23 yards on two catches in the last meeting with the Chargers. He’s really only had one decent game since week six when he had already scored nine times.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: The Chargers have played much better defense at home where no one has thrown more than two scores and most struggle to reach 200 pass yards. The rushing defense is also decent at home with no 100 yard rushers allowed and just five touchdowns to the position. But these are the Broncos and Manning, Anders, Thomas. Bryant, Sanders and probably Julius Thomas will return to form more.

The Chargers are as enigmatic as any team. Good enough to win in Baltimore and take down the Rams but then get shut out by the Dolphins and lose handily to the Patriots. At 8-5 the Chargers are in thick of the race for a wildcard but end with two road games and the Chiefs matchup will be very tough along with this week. Losing their outstanding punter Mike Scifres to a broken collar bone takes away one of their advantages. But the Chargers can always surprise with a great game. But that mojo is better saved to be used in San Francisco.

QUARTERBACK : Philip Rivers passed for 252 yards and three scores in Denver but also had two interceptions. That’s been one of his best games of the year and oddly almost every 300 yard or three touchdown games came in road venues. Rivers will be pressed to pass in this meeting as well as the Chargers rushing offense is not going to carry this game at all.

RUNNING BACK : Branden Oliver was held to only 36 yards on 13 carries versus the Broncos but added a season high seven catches for 27 yards. He has not scored since back in week six when he was still the new surprise back. Since week eight, Oliver has never topped the 36 rush yards in Denver. He’s now been demoted to only a relief player. Ryan Mathews returned in week 11 but been just as challenged to produce much. He ran for 105 yards when the Rams visited but hare been held to less than 45 rush yards in every game since and Mathews is rarely used as a receiver.

WIDE RECEIVER : Keenan Allen ended with 73 yards on nine carries with one score in Denver while Malcom Floyd (4-58) and Eddie Royal (3-29) had their standard games. Allen has been much better in recent weeks but was just held to only two catches for three yards by Darrelle Revis last week. If good things happen here, they are almost always with Allen.

TIGHT END : Antonio Gates caught two touchdowns on his five receptions for 54 yards in Denver but has failed to score in the five games since and only once managed more than 35 yards in that time.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: Denver should be plenty focused here but have allowed multiple touchdowns in all but one road game. The rushing defense has been outstanding this year so the mediocre attack by Matthews is not likely to net more than some yardage. Rivers, Allen and Gates are all three strong plays in this final home game of the year.

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