Predictions Summary Projections by Position Projection Team Boxes

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Prediction: GB 24, BUF 17 (Line: GB by 6.5)

UPDATE: Eddie Lacy is probable and will play but he may share more with James Starks to keep his hip from getting any worse.

The 10-3 Packers are 3-3 on the road but on a five game winning streak. The 7-6 Bills are just 4-3 at home and trying to convince themselves that they still have a chance at a wildcard (but they really don’t).

After a slow start, the Packers have been as good as any year and finish out the season with a challenge here in Buffalo and then the season finale against the Lions who already have the head-to-head tie breaker so far and trail by only one game. One advantage here is that the Packers can play anywhere and the weather is no worse than at home. The scary mark now is that after they rolled up 50+ point wins back in weeks 10 and 11, they have won their last three by only one score. When teams can do just enough to win every game, they are at their most dangerous. Because they are just playing to win the game, not score points,

QUARTERBACK : Aaron Rodgers is in high form again with multiple touchdowns in the last 11 straight games and high yardage apparently whenever he wants it. Five of his last six games have been over 300 yards and Rodgers already totals 35 touchdowns on the season.

RUNNING BACK : Eddie Lacy has also been on a very productive stretch with 11 touchdowns over his last ten games played. Lacy has topped 100 rushing yards only twice but exceeded 100 total yards in each of the last six weeks. James Starks helped out last week with one score and ten carries for 75 yards but he typically does very little. This is Lacy’s backfield and he’s been a fantasy goldmine. Lacy bruised his hip and had to leave the game last week. The consensus is that he will be okay and play this week but I will update as needed if he is limited or out.

WIDE RECEIVER : Randall Cobb was on a torrid pace with ten touchdowns in his first nine games but he has not scored since week ten and broken 100 yards only once in the last four games. Jordy Nelson remains a scoring machine with 12 touchdowns on the season and six games over 100 yards. Davante Adams figures in on occasion but this offense goes through Nelson and Cobb.

TIGHT END : While they are far too unreliable for a fantasy start, the tight ends have accounted for six touchdowns on the season but the yardage is minimal and three different tight ends have scored.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: Rodgers faces one of the best secondaries in the NFL but some of that stems from a soft schedule against bad quarterbacks (KC, NYJ (2), CLE, MIN). But they also just held Peyton Manning to only 173 yards. But this is also the same defense that gave up 361 yards and four scores to Tom Brady. The rushing defense is very good as well and especially at home. Rodgers, Cobb and Nelson are still must starts. Lacy is a definite play but should be in for a more moderate game here unless the offense ends up at the goal line several times as happened with the Broncos and C.J. Anderson.

The Bills wind down the season still wondering who the franchise quarterback is, why the rushing offense just gets worse but at least thankful that Sammy Watkins has proven to be as good as billed despite the lack of a similarly talented quarterback. This is the final home game and the Bills have plenty to build on for next year with a defense that has been quietly one of the best units in the NFL. The same directive happens again – find an offense as good next year.

QUARTERBACK : No one is happy with Kyle Orton but he remains better than E.J. Manuel so his string of single score games with marginal yardage will continue. Aside from the slop that the Broncos allowed to happen, Orton has been stuck around 200 yards for the last month and recently decided to throw two interceptions per game. for the last two weeks.

RUNNING BACK : The pointless rotation continues and involves all three runners. This would only be an average running back if he was given all the work. Split into three has made none of the backs worth much consideration. Bryce Brown has been no help and is down to only three carries per game. Anthony Dixon gets far more carries than his production seems to warrant and he scored only once all year. Fred Jackson scored twice but only produces marginal fantasy stats when the Bills face a weak opponent. He did get a freakish ten catches last week but only gained 37 yards in Denver. He’s been more consistent with just three or four short receptions per week.

WIDE RECEIVER : There is some talent here and Sammy Watkins is clearly the top of the class. But he has not scored in the last five weeks and until the Denver game when he turned in 127 yards on seven catches, he spent a full month with under 35 yards in every game. Watkins had a nice start to the year with five scores and three 100 yard games through week eight but has gone cold since. Chris Hogan scored in the last two games but has marginal yardage in game and even less when he is at home. Robert Woods turned in the occasional decent game as well. All combined the unit was looking much better until the recent month of decline.

TIGHT END : Scott Chandler turned in a season high eight catches for 81 yards in Denver but two of his previous three games contained less than five yards of production.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: The Packers weakness is their secondary which is partly a function of most teams falling far behind and then playing catch up by passing on every play. Most teams throw for two scores on the Packers but the rushing stats are less and the Bills have no really viable back anyway. Like all Packers games, this should be a mini-shootout at some point. That makes Watkins and Woods both worth considering but all other Bills are too risky.

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