Game Predictions & Player Projections - HOU vs IND

Game Predictions & Player Projections - HOU vs IND


Game Predictions & Player Projections - HOU vs IND


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Prediction: HOU 17, IND 34 (Line: IND by 6.5)

UPDATE: Andre Johnson remains questionable and did not pass concussion protocol as of Friday. He could go up to game time before getting cleared and he could end up missing this game. I am lowering his projections because of the risk.

This is a replay of week six when the 9-4 Colts won 33-28 in Houston. The 7-6 Texans are 4-3 in road games while the Colts are 5-2 at home. The Colts have already beaten the Texans and this win locks down the AFC South.

Houston Texans

1 WAS 17-6 10 BYE —–
2 @OAK 30-14 11 @CLE 23-7
3 @NYG 17-30 12 CIN 13-22
4 BUF 23-17 13 TEN 45-21
5 @DAL 17-20 14 @JAC 27-13
6 IND 28-33 15 @IND —–
7 @PIT 23-30 16 BAL —–
8 @TEN 30-16 17 JAC —–
9 PHI 21-31  
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
RB Alfred Blue 30
RB Lamar Miller 60 4-20
WR DeAndre Hopkins 7-80
WR Cecil Shorts 4-50
PK Nick Novak 1 FG 3 XP

The Texans still have a chance at a wildcard but it takes a calculator and some rampant optimism to understand how. The Season finale against the Jaguars can be a nice Christmas present to season ticket holders but the Texans still have not take the next step into being a winning franchise. Losing a #1 draft pick for the year from the start hurts and the offense is in need of planting some new seeds in the offseason. Playing out as well as possible is more about saving jobs now.

QUARTERBACK : Ryan Fitzpatrick was held to only 212 yards and one score in the previous meeting with the Colts. He’s been consistent enough with one or two scores each week but the yardage is never high and he’s been locked to very moderate production when away from home.

RUNNING BACK : Arian Foster gained 109 yards on 20 carries and scored twice on the visiting Colts. He added 32 yards on three catches as well. Foster is one a seven game scoring streak and remained above 100 total yards in each regardless of venue or opponent. Last week there was enough slop to allow Alfred Blue a pity touchdown but Foster remains a heavy use back that yielded production and consistency the entire year.

WIDE RECEIVER : DeAndre Hopkins is having a break out year at least with yardage since he’s topped 100 yards four times and 200 yards once. But he scored only one of his six touchdowns when in an away game and was held to only one catch for 12 yards by the Colts for his worst game of the year. Andre Johnson reeled in seven passes for 99 yards and a score in that meeting but is out with a concussion. I will assume he clears protocol and update as warranted. Hopkins already struggled with the Colts and the absence of Johnson would be far worse.

TIGHT END : No fantasy value and Garrett Graham is out with a sore ankle anyway. Graham had no catches in the previous meeting with the Colts.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: No doubt this will prove much tougher than the Houston meeting. Foster is nearly automatic and always a safe start. But Fitzpatrick struggled against this defense when he was at home and with healthy players. The Texans will focus on the run as much as they reasonably can. The Colts defense is less likely to take this lightly because it wins the division and it is the final home game. Hopkins and Johnson both carry upside here but Johnson needs to clear the concussion tests. Without him, Foster is all that is likely to matter.

Gaining Fantasy Points HOU 24 9 20 32 10 4
Preventing Fantasy Points IND 15 25 5 30 4 24

Indianapolis Colts

1 @DEN 24-31 10 BYE —–
2 PHI 27-30 11 NE  20-42
3 @JAC 44-17 12 JAC 23-3
4 TEN 41-17 13 WAS 49-27
5 BAL 20-13 14 @CLE 25-24
6 @HOU 33-28 15 HOU —–
7 CIN 27-0 16 @DAL —–
8 @PIT 34-51 17 @TEN —–
9 @NYG 40-24  
News | Statistics | Roster
IND vs HOU Rush Catch Pass
QB Andrew Luck 20 310,3
RB Frank Gore 30 1-10
RB Dan Herron 60,1 3-30
RB Jordan Todman 20 2-10
WR T.Y. Hilton 9-120,1
WR Donte Moncrief 4-60,1
TE Dwayne Allen 2-20
PK Adam Vinatieri 2 FG 4 XP

The Colts are on a three game winning streak but after this week have two remaining road games in Dallas and Tennessee. A win this week puts three games between these teams with two left to play and knowing a first round bye is probably out of reach, all that matters is this win and then let the cards fall. This will be the last home game until the wildcard round.

QUARTERBACK : Andrew Luck threw for 370 yards and three touchdowns in Houston and he’s been a lock for the best fantasy points all season. He already has ten 300 yard games and a total of 36 touchdowns. His only downside is he can turn in a more moderate game when faced with a really weak opponent who poses no threat of a comeback.

RUNNING BACK : Trent Richardson ran for 41 yards and a score on 17 carries in Houston while Ahmad Bradshaw gained 34 yards on 11 runs and scored on his three receptions for 25 yards. Dan Herron has since taken over for Bradshaw and been far more productive than Richardson (like Bradshaw). But the two are splitting the workload. Only Herron has any real consideration for a fantasy start. Richardson claimed he would have a great game last week against this ex-employer of the Browns but only ran seven times for 30 yards with no receptions.

WIDE RECEIVER : Reggie Wayne is playing through torn triceps and has been ineffective for the last thee weeks. Wayne only managed four catches for 35 yards in Houston while T.Y. Hilton had a career best nine receptions for 223 yards and one score. Hilton scored in six of the next eight games and has six efforts over 100 yards. Hakeem Nicks has never really fit in or contributed much and was held to no catches last week for the second time this year. Donte Moncrief would be able to take over for Wayne if he sits out and the rookie already topped 100 yards twice. He did not play in the initial meeting with the Texans.

TIGHT END : Coby Fleener scored in Houston last time but only caught two passes for 11 yards while Dwayne Allen gained 49 yards on three receptions. Allen just returned from a five week absence but has seven touchdowns on the year and Fleener has six. There have been only three games this year without a tight end touchdown and those were over the last four weeks.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: Andrew Luck already hung season high stats on the Texans in their stadium and this is a must win game. No reason to sit Luck, Herron or Hilton. Moncrief has upside here as well. This should just build upon what the Colts already did to them in week six. While Allen was successful in the first meeting, he is back just one week from his lengthy ankle injury and only managed one catch last week. Fleener has established a nice chemistry with Fleener while Allen was out but now there is more risk as to which one will perform the best. Given that Allen has not had a good game back yet, Fleener is the slightly better bet.

Gaining Fantasy Points IND 1 13 5 3 2 12
Preventing Fantasy Points HOU 18 15 31 7 5 9

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