Game Predictions & Player Projections - JAC vs BAL

Game Predictions & Player Projections - JAC vs BAL


Game Predictions & Player Projections - JAC vs BAL


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Prediction: JAC 6, BAL 31 (Line: BAL by 14)

UPDATE: Lorenzo Taliaferro did not practice this week because of foot issues and is likely to not play. He has been removed from the projections. Denard Robinson has been shut down for the rest of the season with a foot injury and the backfield will use a committee with Toby Gerhart, Storm Johnson and possibly Jordan Toddman. None of these backs are worth consideration. Torrey Smith has been upgraded to probable but he is not expected to be 100%.

The 2-11 Jaguars are 0-6 on the road and lose big when they leave Jacksonville. The 8-5 Ravens are 4-2 at home and fighting for the AFC North. This should be a beatdown.

Jacksonville Jaguars

1 @PHI 17-34 10 DAL 17-31
2 @WAS 10-41 11 BYE —–
3 IND 17-44 12 @IND 3-23
4 @SD 14-33 13 NYG 25-24
5 PIT 9-17 14 HOU 13-27
6 @TEN 14-16 15 @BAL —–
7 CLE 24-6 16 TEN —–
8 MIA 13-27 17 @HOU —–
9 @CIN 23-33  
News | Statistics | Roster
JAC @ BAL Rush Catch Pass
QB Blake Bortles 20 190
RB Chris Ivory 70,1 1-10
RB Bernard Pierce 30
WR Allen Hurns 3-30
WR Marqise Lee 5-60
TE Marcedes Lewis 4-40
TE Julius Thomas 4-40

The Jaguars continue to flounder and when they leave home they are rarely beaten by fewer than ten points. The defense has been slightly underrated this year because the offense has scored fewer points than any offense in the NFL. This is a fantasy wasteland again this year with no signs of improvement until Blake Bortles and the cast of rookies take the next step.

QUARTERBACK : Blake Bortles threw only two touchdowns over his last four games but at least the interceptions are slowing down. The offense has actually become less productive as the season progresses and the chance for more than 200 pass yards is getting slimmer. Bortles currently totals ten touchdowns against 16 interceptions this year.

RUNNING BACK : Toby Gerhart is back to the same “caddy” role he had in Minnesota but at least he’s getting vastly overpaid this time. Denard Robinson now has gone three straight games with less than 50 rushing yards, no scores and even his receptions are down to zero as of last week. On the road he’s tended to be better as a receiver but only marginally.

WIDE RECEIVER : Marqise Lee is now the primary wideout and he followed up his 6-75 effort against the Giants with a 5-67 game last week versus the Texans. Lee has just one score on the year and this week will only be his second road venue since week six. Cecil Shorts hasn’t scored since week three and while he had 100 yards twice, his last three weeks have combined for only seven catches for 44 yards. Alan Hurns caught a score last week but has not topped 45 yards in a game since week nine. In fairness to Bortles, this entire group is injury prone, constantly changing and mostly rookies.

TIGHT END : No fantasy value. Marcedes Lewis had a freakish 69 yards last week but it is rare any of the tight ends gain more than 30 yards in any game and none of them have more than one touchdown on the year.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: Robinson is only mediocre and facing the #1 defense against running backs so he’s out. There is some upside to the wideouts but only in trash time and that may not happen anyway. There is no safe start here this week.

Gaining Fantasy Points JAC 26 28 23 26 30 15
Preventing Fantasy Points BAL 26 1 32 12 10 1

Baltimore Ravens

1 CIN 16-23 10 TEN 21-7
2 PIT 26-6 11 BYE —–
3 @CLE 23-21 12 @NO 34-27
4 CAR 38-10 13 SD 33-34
5 @IND 13-20 14 @MIA 28-13
6 @TB 48-17 15 JAC —–
7 ATL 29-7 16 @HOU —–
8 @CIN 24-27 17 CLE —–
9 @PIT 23-43  
News | Statistics | Roster
BAL vs JAC Rush Catch Pass
QB Joe Flacco 210,1
RB Justin Forsett 100,2 2-10
RB Trent Richardson 30
RB Terrance West 70 1-10
WR Kamar Aiken 4-50
WR Steve Smith 6-80,1
WR Mike Wallace 4-60
PK Justin Tucker 1 FG 4 XP

The Ravens need some help to reach the playoffs since they are done with divisional play besides the Browns who they already lead. This week should be an easy win but one that the Ravens may not try to run up the score and just get through it knowing the tougher game is traveling to Houston the next week. That makes predicting this one tougher because the Ravens will have to fight mailing this one in.

QUARTERBACK : Joe Flacco is having a better year than usual and already threw 22 touchdowns and ran in a score in each of the last two games. The yardage is still rarely more than moderate but he’s thrown a touchdown in all but two games this year and both were on the road. He won’t top 250 yards in any game unless it turns into a shootout – unlikely this week.

RUNNING BACK : Justin Forsett remains on a hot streak for the last month and this game is not going to change anything. Forsett scored five times in the last four games and topped 100 yards in three of them. Bernard Pierce and Lorenzo Taliaferro both get a few carries to keep Forsett fresh but the Ravens are comfortable letting him take up to 24 carries in a game.

WIDE RECEIVER : Torrey Smith was on a career best pace with eight touchdowns already but sprained his knee in week 13 and was held out of the win over the Dolphins. He is not likely to play this week currently but I will update as needed. The reality is that the Ravens can win this one without him and it would benefit all to get him healthier for the two remaining games that matter. At least Steve Smith was able to step up and score on his seven catches for 70 yards last week. Smith has been quiet since mid season but the last two road games saw him score with healthy yardage. Kamar Aiken takes over for Torrey Smith and scored on his six catches for 65 yards last week.

TIGHT END : No fantasy value.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: You beat the Jaguars any way you want. Forsett is a must start here but could easily give way to Pierce or Taliaferro at some point which makes him riskier for a monster game. Same goes for Flacco who could win this and never throw a pass. Steve Smith is a consideration here but Forsett is the only one that should be a guarantee of good fantasy points.

Gaining Fantasy Points BAL 17 4 13 15 6 14
Preventing Fantasy Points JAC 17 30 11 18 30 32

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