Predictions Summary Projections by Position Projection Team Boxes

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Prediction: KC 20, ARI 19 (Line: ARI by 1.5)

UPDATE: Andre Ellington remains out as expected. Larry Fitzgerald will be a game time decision and will not be 100% if he plays anyway. I am lowering his projections and check on Sunday to see if he is active.

The 7-5 Chiefs are on a two game losing streak thanks to the Broncos and … well… the Raiders. They are only 3-3 in road games. The 9-3 Cardinals remain on top of the NFC West at least for now and are 6-0 at home. But losing Carson Palmer was like leaving your car to get a bite to eat and when you get back it is up on blocks.

The Chiefs are still in the playoff race along with a host of other 7-5 teams but they already got both losses to the Broncos out of the way and the remaining games don’t look quite as back as they did even just a few weeks back. The Chiefs are going to struggle against great offenses because they ability to score a lot of points is just not there but so long as the defense and Jamaal Charles can be enough – and more often than not it is – the Chiefs can at least remain in the thick of the wildcard race until the end.

QUARTERBACK : The two recent losses prompted Alex Smith to throw for two scores in each but after posting 234 yards in the Oakland Embarrassment, he fell back to only 153 yards versus the Broncos. Smith is a game manager and simply is unable to mount more than a very mediocre passing effort.

RUNNING BACK : Jamaal Charles scored in each of the last seven games though the two recent losses both contained receiving touchdowns. Charles totals 12 touchdowns on the season and the yardage has been solid other than when facing the Broncos. Charles is back to getting four catches per game which helps his total but he’s really only had no bad games since week two. And Knile Davis is back to being just a relief back.

WIDE RECEIVER : Worst set in the NFL. Even Dwayne Bowe has been limited to under 45 yards for the last three weeks. No fantasy value and still not one single touchdown all year.

TIGHT END : Travis Kelce chugs along without a score since week nine and he’s been as good as 67 yards and as bad as 19 yards since week five with just one score over those weeks. He tends to be less used at home but then shows up more in road games.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: The Cardinals are tougher at home and have been the best against running backs which will be problematic for the Chiefs and Jamaal Charles. But the Cardinals have also been on the decline recently thanks to injuries on both offense and defense – steven Jackson just gained 101 yards on them last week. Joique Bell gained 115 total yards the previous week. Charles is a must start and will at least get you yardage and has a shot at a score. None of the other Chiefs merit any fantasy consideration.

Two losses bring the Seahawks within striking distance with one more meeting yet to go. Losing in Atlanta to a truly bad defense was bad enough but losing yet more players to injury is going to sink this ship. The ending schedule is brutal and suddenly the Cardinals are watching their season start to slip away after leading the NFL at one point.

QUARTERBACK : Drew Stanton is not making a case for hanging around next year. He managed 306 yards and two scores on the Lions but then was held to only 149 yards and no score in Seattle and 294 yards and one touchdown in Atlanta. He is back at home and expects to get back Larry Fitzgerald but never did much with him before. Stanton has to face one of the top secondaries in the league and may not even have Andre Ellington to help out.

RUNNING BACK : Andre Ellington suffered a hip pointer and hasn’t practice yet this week. He is likely to sit out and would not be healthy if he did play. I will assume he is out and project for Marion Grice as the next man in line. Grice scored once this year but has only been give 11 carries and gained just 29 yards on them. He did end up with three catches for 24 yards in Atlanta.

WIDE RECEIVER : Larry Fitzgerald was held out the last two games with a sore knee but is tentatively expected back for this week. But Fitzgerald never had more than 57 yards in a game where Stanton started and never scored. Michael Floyd recovered from his catchless Seahawk game but still only managed 53 yards on five catches in Atlanta as the primary wideout. John Brown was held to 40 yards on two catches replacing Fitzgerald. Stanton’s difficulty in finding his wideouts is going to be a big problem facing all good defenses to end the year.

TIGHT END : No fantasy value.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: The Chiefs always give up a passing score and rarely more than one. Certainly not more to one of the worst passing teams. The Chiefs have also only given up rushing scores to one player all year – the Legendary Latavius Murray. There were five with 100+ yards but no one else scores. With Ellington out, that is not a good equation and against the Chiefs team desperate to win and all healthy. There are no attractive starts here though Ellington can be considered as a flex play should he return and seem reasonably healthy.

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