Predictions Summary Projections by Position Projection Team Boxes

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Prediction: DEN 27, CIN 17 (Line: DEN by 3.5)

UPDATE: Peyton Manning was limited in practice because of his thigh but is expected to be fine for this Monday game. Jermaine Gresham has undergone full practices the last two days and his status will be official on Saturday but he looks likely to play. I am adding him back into the projections.

This is the Monday night game and should be a good one. Finally. The 11-3 Broncos are 4-3 on the road and travel to meet the 9-4-1 Bengals who are 4-2-1 at home. The Bengals are fighting to remain in contention while the Broncos are just playing to get a first round bye.

The Broncos are on a four game winning streak since that stumble in St. Louis and with the Raiders visiting in the season finale, this game has to be a win. If the Pats win out, then the Broncos afternoon game on the final Sunday won’t matter and they will know it by kickoff. But until then, winning could mean homefield throughout and Peyton is not getting any younger.

QUARTERBACK : Peyton Manning’s stats have dropped tremendously in the last month. He was good for three or four touchdowns every week and high yardage but he’s scored just once last week and not at all in week 14. Worse still both games had low yardage and thanks to the rushing effort, Manning has not thrown for 300 yards since week 11. In fairness, Manning played an entire game being chased by 300 pound defensive players while having the flu when you can’t manage to throw on a tie and drive to work. Probably something about the pay level though…

RUNNING BACK : Monte Ball was placed on injured reserve and will forever live in the darkest parts of the souls of those who burned a first or second round draft pick on him. Ronnie Hillman may be back for this week but will only be a support player for C.J. Anderson. The Broncos are more than please with what Anderson has brought to the table both as a runner and a receiver. Anderson already has two games with 160+ rushing yards and caught as many as eight passes in one game.

WIDE RECEIVER : Demaryius Thomas had a freakishly bad game against the Bills like the rest of the team but has been worth a score or 100 yards or both in every game since week three. Thomas already has 11 touchdowns and eight 100 yard games. Emmanuel Sanders has been cold in recent weeks with only about 50 yards in each of the last two games. He has now scored since 11 and the decline in passing stats by Manning come straight from his production. Thomas still tends to get his normal load. Wes Welker was the only wideout that mattered against the Bills with 82 yards but he’s been below 20 yards in all other games for more than a month.

TIGHT END : Not unlike last year, Julius Thomas started out red hot with nine touchdowns in the first five weeks but never had much yardage and has been no help since week eleven when he injured his ankle. Thomas showed up finally last week but only had one catch for 30 yards. He was a difference maker for the first half of the year but a liability since.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: The Bengals have a solid pass defense though the better quarterbacks have hung 300 yards and two or three scores on them four times this year. It depends on which Manning we get. The Bengals are very weak against the run and allowed 11 touchdowns to running backs from the last six visiting teams. Le’Veon Bell laid down 235 total yards and three scores on this defense. Julius Thomas is hard to recommend with his lengthy time since his last good game but the Bengals are weaker against the tight end than most. Expect a good game by Anderson and then Manning, Demaryius Thomas and Sanders to offer more moderate production.

The Bengals had the pleasure of punking Johnny Football last week and with that stayed a half game ahead of the Steelers for the division. This game may not matter really. Even if the Bengals lose this and the Steelers draw ahead by a half game, the season finale in Pittsburgh could win it back. Even if both teams win this week, the Steelers have to be beaten in week 17 and the Bengals already lost to them just two weeks ago.

QUARTERBACK : Andy Dalton has been much less productive in the new offense and currently has only 15 passing scores on the year and just three 300 yard games. He even had five games without any passing touchdowns. His production has varied greatly from week to week but he only throws big games when the opponent has a weak secondary.

RUNNING BACK : Jeremy Hill is really laying claim to being the primary back with his 148 yard, two touchdown performance against the Browns. That makes three times he’s blown up and good things have happened whenever they allow him 18 or more carries. Giovani Bernard continues to fade and while he had 79 yards on 15 runs last week, it was just six carries for 17 yards in the previous game when Hill had eight runs for 46 yards. This offense wants a power rushing game and only Hill is providing it. He just doesn’t do it every week.

WIDE RECEIVER : A.J. Green only had 49 yards last week because the Bengals never needed him and Joe Haden was shadowing him. Green’s already scored six times this year and logged five different 100 yard games over the ten that he’s played. The problem with Green’s big games is that they have all came against weak secondaries (BAL, NO, HOU and PIT). Mohamed Sanu reverted to just an average player once Green showed back up in week nine and rarely has more than 25 yards in any game.

TIGHT END : No fantasy value and Jermaine Gresham is out with a toe injury that made him inactive last week.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: The Broncos always allow one ot two passing scores but rarely anything more and the yardage tends to remain on the low side for most. The rushing defense has been very good with only five rushing touchdowns allowed to running backs. Unfortunately a weakness against tight ends won’t have a Bengal to take advantage of it. The Broncos will seek to put Aqib Talib on Green and the Bengals will seek to get a better matchup. Green is still worth a start and so is Hill but none of the rest carry enough upside to mitigate their risk.

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