Predictions Summary Projections by Position Projection Team Boxes

table td.bg-light-yellow {
background: #ffffcc; }

Prediction: NE 27, NYJ 17 (Line: NE by 10.5)

UPDATE: Julian Edelman is out this week because of his concussion. LeGarrette Blount has also been downgraded to out with a shoulder injury.

This is a replay of week seven with the Patriots squeaked past 27-25. The 11-3 Patriots have already clinched the division and are still looking to get the #1 seed in the AFC. They are 4-3 in road games while the 3-11 Jets are only 2-5 at home.

The Pats wrap up yet another AFCA East title and these last two games are not gimmee’s but shouldn’t prevent a 13-3 record. What has quietly come on later in the year has been the defense that has been good enough to make shootouts unnecessary. The scary part about the Pats are that they seem to be peaking now and are just about to wrap up the #1 seed. No one wants to play in New England throughout the playoffs since it has been such an advantage to the Pats.

QUARTERBACK : Tom Brady passed for 261 yards and three scores against the Jets in the first meeting and has been on a ten game streak of multiple touchdown games. The only change is that he’s thrown for exactly two scores in the last five games and has tossed six interceptions over the last six weeks.

RUNNING BACK : Now Jonas Gray is an active part of the backfield so the rotation is three deep and even less reliable. Gray ran for 62 yards on 11 carries last week against the Dolphins while LeGarrette Blount was held to only eight carries for 17 yards though he punched in one touchdown. Shane Vereen was the main weapon back in week seven when he ran for 43 yards and had five catches for 71 yards and two scores. Vereen just ran in his first score since the season opener but was held to five rush yards on six carries and only 12 yards on one catch. Vereen’s receiving stats have really waned over the last three games.

WIDE RECEIVER : Surprisingly, the wideouts did not do well against the Jets in week seven. Brandon LaFell (4-55) and Julian Edelman (4-44) were the most productive but Danny Amendola (1-19) scored his only touchdown of the year. Since that week, LaFell has been much more productive and yet cooled significantly in recent weeks as the rushing effort as been more center stage.

TIGHT END : Rob Gronkowski was held to 68 yards on five catches versus the Jets last time but scored seven times in the seven games since that meeting.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: The Patriots need this win to maintain their #1 seed and the Jets still have one of the worst secondaries in the league. This is not an attractive game for any of the three running backs but Brady, Gronkowski, LaFell and Edelman are worth considering even if they did not blow up in the last meeting.

The Jets left Tennessee with their third win of the year and that’s likely going to be the final tally as well even if it does scoot them just outside the likely draft spot to grab the top quarterback in the draft. The Jets are likely to be blown up in the offseason and look very different by September. But to his credit, Rex Ryan has not allowed his team to give and up and they remain maddeningly competitive in most games despite not winning.

QUARTERBACK : Geno Smith will finish out the year and only threw for 226 yards and one score in New England though he had 37 rush yards and no turnovers. Smith has thrown a bit better in recent games and that one score seems to be his standard.

RUNNING BACK : Back in week seven, Chris Ivory ran for 107 yards and one score on 21 carries and added four catches for 18 yards. Chris Johnson tallied 61 yards on 13 runs as well. That proved to be a season high for Ivory who has been held to around 60 yards in most games. Johnson actually has been better down the stretch compared to earlier in the year and is reliable for around 50 yards per week now.

WIDE RECEIVER : Percy Harvin was able to play last week despite his ankle injury but only ran once and never had a catch. Assumedly he will be better this weekend and he is the new element from the last time these teams played. Eric Decker (4-65) and Jeremy Kerley (2-29) were not very productive in that meeting though Decker has been fairly sold in the 60 to 80 yard range. He even comes off his first 100 yard game of the season.

TIGHT END : No fantasy value

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: Every road opponent has thrown for a score on the Patriots and most have two or three and healthy yardage. Consider Smith safe for one score and has upside for two but his entire season says he is too risky to consider. The Patriots are only average against the run and the Jets made that a focus last time. Consider both Ivory and Johnson as moderate plays this week. Decker has some upside here as well.

table td.bg-light-yellow {
background: #ffffcc; }