Beyond TDs and Tackles: Week 16

By Steve Gallo | December 19, 2014 12:00 am ET Follow @SteveGalloNFL

FIRST DOWN – Omaha, Omaha

Unless you live under a rock you know that Peyton Manning, not the steak company or insurance company, made Omaha famous. If you are a Peyton Manning owner, it’s time to be like Peyton and call Omaha and audible to another play…one that doesn’t include the eldest Manning (Peyton) in your championship lineup. No, seriously, sit him down this week. I can 100% guarantee you that if you are a Peyton owner that if you went to set your lineup and the name showed something other than Manning, say, Jones, there is no doubt in my mind that you wouldn’t be clicking the box to make him a starter. I leave you with the following to ponder…In week 1, Peyton Manning was the #5 scoring QB. That’s means that four QBs outscored him. In week 2, he was QB4, meaning that three QBs outscored him. So, thru two weeks, Manning was outscored seven total times. Stay with me here! Thru the first 12 weeks of the season, Peyton Manning was outscored 55 times. Over the last three weeks, he’s been outscored 67 times. SIXTY-SEVEN TIMES! From week 13-15, Colt McCoy has been outscored 65 times (injury insured he didn’t even play three full games), Shaun Hill just 51 times, Teddy Bridgewater 40 times and Mr. Jay “I’ve been benched for Jimmy F’n Clausen” Cutler only 23 times. I’m telling you, take the name and the emotion out of this decision and it should be easy to sit Peyton F’ Manning this week.

QUARTERBACK	Wk 13-15 FPts	AVG PPG	Times Outscored*
Ryan, Matt ATL	79.24	26.413	11
Luck, Andrew IND	83.54	27.847	14
Roethlisberger, Ben PIT	72.30	24.100	22
Brees, Drew NOS	71.48	23.827	23
Cutler, Jay CHI	67.40	22.467	23
Flacco, Joe BAL	63.30	21.100	30
Brady, Tom NEP	60.36	20.120	32
Wilson, Russell SEA	59.68	19.893	35
Rodgers, Aaron GBP	62.90	20.967	36
Stafford, Matthew DET	58.16	19.387	37
Bridgewater, Teddy MIN	55.38	18.460	40
Smith, Alex KCC	54.62	18.207	40
Romo, Tony DAL	50.36	16.787	43
Manning, Eli NYG	50.28	16.760	45
Rivers, Philip SDC	55.16	18.387	46
Dalton, Andy CIN	51.00	17.000	47
Newton, Cam CAR	52.00	26.000	49
Hill, Shaun STL	48.10	16.033	51
Tannehill, Ryan MIA	44.32	14.773	53
McCown, Josh TBB	44.66	14.887	54
Fitzpatrick, Ryan HOU	55.42	18.473	58
Sanchez, Mark PHI	44.10	14.700	60
Carr, Derek OAK	42.26	14.087	60
Orton, Kyle BUF	41.82	13.940	60
Bortles, Blake JAC	40.36	13.453	64
McCoy, Colt WAS	41.90	13.967	65
Stanton, Drew ARI	38.38	12.793	67
Manning, Peyton DEN	34.30	11.433	67
Smith, Geno NYJ	34.72	11.573	69
Griffin III, Robert WAS	19.36	9.680	75
Anderson, Derek CAR	16.48	8.240	76
Kaepernick, Colin SFO	30.34	10.113	77
Mettenberger, Zach TEN	17.06	8.530	87
Manziel, Johnny CLE	14.32	7.160	89
Hoyer, Brian CLE	13.58	6.790	91
Locker, Jake TEN	16.66	5.553	92

*If a player didn’t play in a particular week I used 32 as the number he was outscored by. If a player did play and was outscored by more than 32 other players then I used the actual number they were outscored by.

I don’t think you really need to look at any more numbers but here’s one last comparison showing Peyton over different spans of times this season.

QUARTERBACK	Weeks	AVG PPG	Times Outscored
Peyton Manning	1-5	25.255	14
Peyton Manning	1-10	25.998	43
Peyton Manning	1-12	25.593	55
Peyton Manning	13-15	11.433	67

SECOND DOWN – Steve’s Studs, Duds & Suds

If you have been reading this column then you know what my “Seven Sleepers” is all about. If you don’t, you will once you move to third down. These “Studs & Duds” are players that many probably look at as must starts and my “Studs” are players I think will finish number one overall at their position and the “Duds” are players I see finishing outside the top-24 at their position. On the offensive side of the ball this could help you on the DFS front.

STUDS		DUDS
POSITION	PLAYER	POSITION	PLAYER
QB	Aaron Rodgers	QB	Peyton Manning
RB	Le’Veon Bell	RB	Arian Foster
WR	Jordy Nelson	WR	Dez Bryant
TE	Rob Gronkowski	TE	Jimmy Graham
DL	Everson Griffin	DL	Carlos Dunlap
LB	Luke Kuechly	LB	Daryl Smith
DB	Ryan Mundy	DB	Rashad Johnson*

On the suds side be sure to tune into next week’s episode of the Blitzed Podcast where Harley Schultz will be interviewing the founder of Founder’s Brewing for our Tapped In segment.

*I wanted to pick Michael Griffin as my DB dud but his game started shortly after I finished writing this.

THIRD DOWN – Steve’s Seven Sleepers

The fantasy playoffs are upon us and gambling on sleepers in the playoffs isn’t something many like to do, but injuries and poor matchups still make sleepers a viable option in some instances. Check out my seven sleepers that I think can put up solid production this week. To qualify the player can’t rank in the top-36** at their respective position based on the season long rankings in the Huddle IDP Expert League. I thought it’d be nice to show how my sleepers did the previous week so you’ll also find last week’s sleepers with the amount of points that they scored. I also want to add that I’m trying to target players that should be available on waivers, which at this time of year is a very difficult thing to do at the running back position.

*Top-12 for QB & TE. **Top-15 for QB & TE.

Week 16		Week 15
Position	Sleeper	Position	Sleeper	FPts
QB	Josh McCown	QB	Johnny Manziel	4.50
RB	Lance Dunbar	RB	Chris Johnson	5.50
WR	Dwayne Bowe	WR	Marqise Lee	5.40
TE	Andrew Quarless	TE	Ryan Griffin	3.10
DL	Vinny Curry	DL	George Johnson	6.00
LB	Steven Johnson	LB	Devon Kennard	19.50
DB	Bradley McDougald*	DB	George Wilson	18.00

Johnny Manziel, JFF, Johnny F’n Football!!!! Those aren’t good exclamation marks. Mr. Football may have single handily destroyed the average of my sleeper QBs this year. You’d think that I’d have learned my lesson, and I did, but I was tempted to go back to him this week. Instead, I’ll opt for Josh McCown. At RB, Joseph Randle is the hot pickup for teams this week and that does make sense. However, his value is directly tied to if DeMarco Murray plays or not, so coupled with him being the hot pickup I’m passing on him. Instead I’m going with his teammate, Lance Dunbar. It’s a bit of a reach but even if Murray plays I think that Dunbar has a role on passing downs, which there should be plenty of this week. The Chiefs, so far this year do not have a passing TD to a WR. Zip, zero, zilch, nada…that changes this week as Dwayne Bowe scores six (points, not touchdowns)! At TE, last week I wasn’t helped by Ryan Fitzpatrick’s injury that landed him on injured reserve. Andrew Quarless only has the best QB in the league throwing to him against a team that’s not very good at keeping TEs from scoring fantasy points. So hopefully things pan out much better at TE this week.

On the defensive side of the ball, Vinny Curry is a pure upside play against a Washington team that’s given up more points to DL than any other team has this year. The Broncos have lost LBs to injury the way they have RBs this year. Danny Trevathan was healthy, then he was out, then he was healthy, and back out again…this time for the year. Brandon Marshall has had a great season, but a mid-foot sprain will keep him off the field this week. More snaps for Steven Johnson should push him into the LB3, fringe LB2 range. My DB selection comes with an asterisk. I’m pegging Bradley McDougald, but only if Major Wright is inactive. If Wright is active then I’ll default to him as my play.

NOTE: Check back next week and I’ll have the average points scored for each of my seven sleeper positions this year.