Predictions Summary Projections by Position Projection Team Boxes

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Prediction: CIN 20, PIT 30 (Line: PIT by 3.5)

UPDATE: A.J. Green finally had a full practice on Friday and is listed as probable. His arm only had swelling and has regained strength. I am adding a bit onto his receiving totals since he will be very central to the Bengals passing attack.

This game was moved to the Sunday Night Football on NBC since it determines the winner of the AFC North with the loser accepting a wildcard. This is a replay of week 14 when the Steelers won 42-21 in Cincinnati.

Big win over the Broncos in the driving rain but the Bengals would still need to win this week in order to claim the division. Moving to a more run-based offense has worked very well in recent weeks and showed just how prudent it was in that bad weather last Monday. This will be a tough gig this week though against a team that already has their number this year and that is better against the run than the pass.

QUARTERBACK : Andy Dalton doesn’t throw nearly as much and only has 17 passing touchdowns on the season. He’s been challenged to throw for more than the lower 200’s in yardage but had one of his best efforts in the previous loss to the Steelers when he threw for 302 yards and two scores plus ran in a touchdown. Dalton’s efforts on the road have been among his worst all year other than in New Orleans.

RUNNING BACK : While Giovani Bernard scored on a pass last week he has been marginal in most games this year and hasn’t scored on the ground since week eight. Bernard bounces around 50 to 60 total yards each week and only managed 17 yards on six carries in the previous meeting with the Steelers. Jeremy Hill was limited to 46 yards on eight runs then as well and added three catches for 21 yards. Hill is taking over the offense in recent weeks with back-to-back 140+ rushing yard games including three touchdowns over those two weeks. The later in the year it gets, the better Hill is running.

WIDE RECEIVER : A.J. Green badly bruised his arm against the Broncos and while he played he had no catches on four targets and was clearly in pain. Green ended with a career best 224 yards on 11 catches with one score versus the Steelers three weeks ago. Mohamed Sanu only caught two passes for 16 yards in that game and had just single catch games these last two weeks. In the few instances where Dalton has thrown for big yards, it has always been because of Green and no one else. I will assume Green will play and update as warranted.

TIGHT END : Jermaine Gresham caught three passes for 23 yards and one score in the previous meeting with the Steelers. He comes off a season best nine catches for 62 yards and a score over the Broncos.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: The Steelers are average against the run but the Bengals struggled in the last meeting and that was in Cincinnati. Dalton faces a weak secondary but must have Green in order to compete. Have to like the chance for Dalton, Gresham and Sanu to have better games than usual and Hill is a must start now. Green is going to be the determining factor here since he blew up on them last time. As much as his arm bothered him on Monday, it is hard to expect him to be 100% this week though he should play.

The Steelers are on a three game winning streak that started against the Bengals in week 14. This favors the Steelers considering that they have scored 30 points or more in all but two home games this year and they already posted 42 points in Cincinnati. Like the Bengals, the rushing game has been very effective in recent weeks. But the passing effort has as well and therein lies the difference.

QUARTERBACK : Ben Roethlisberger passed for 350 yards and three scores on the Bengals in week 14 and while he only had one score last week against the Chiefs, his three previous home games totaled 14 passing scores. Big Ben produces solid to great passing yardage every week but the scoring will at times end up with Le’Veon Bell.

RUNNING BACK : Le’Veon Bell has been on a scoring streak for five games and scored eight times over that period along with maintaining 100+ total yards in all but last week. Bell ran for 185 yards on 26 carries with gao scores in Cincinnati and added six catches for 50 yards and a third score as a receiver. It was his career best fantasy game and only three touchdown performance.

WIDE RECEIVER : Antonio Brown has been the most consistently productive wide receiver since the season started and left Cincy with nine catches for 117 yards. Lance Moore only had one catch for 29 yards and Markus Wheaton only managed tow receptions for 31 yards. Martavis Bryant had one of his best efforts of the year when he posted four catches for 109 yards and one touchdown. Brown scored in every home game except one.

TIGHT END : Heath Miller has been a marginal fantasy tight end but scored on his one catch in Cincy. That was his only score over the last seven games. He’s too inconsistent to merit much consideration though he’s had several decent yardage performances.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: Bell already blew up on the Bengals in their stadium and is a must start. Roethlisberger and Brown are also must starts but could get a little limited in scores depending on what happens with Bell. Miller is just a marginal play for some yardage.

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