Predictions Summary Projections by Position Projection Team Boxes

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Prediction: DET 14, GB 27 (Line: GB by 7.5)

All the marbles.

Not only does the winner of this game take the NFC North title AND a first round bye, but the loser may end up as the #6 seed. This is a replay of week three when the Lions won 19-7 in Detroit. While Detroit has won three of the last ten meetings, they always lost in Green Bay.

The Lions defense has delivered them to the door of the playoffs and held the last four opponents to no more than 17 points but each of them had losing records and problems with everyone. Their last loss was on the road to New England when they lost by 25 points. The Lions must keep this game lower scoring because the offense is just not up to a shootout this year.

QUARTERBACK : Matt Stafford only threw for 246 yards and no score in the first meeting with the Packers and ended with two interceptions. He’s been worth a couple of scores in most games and high yardage when facing weaker secondaries but he also threw six games with less than 250 yards. The biggest concern here? His last three road games contained zero touchdowns and only moderate yardage.

RUNNING BACK : Joique Bell only ran for 33 yards on 15 carries in the first meeting for one of his worst efforts of the year. Bell spent the last month with around 100 total yards in each game but those were all easier matchups. His last tough road game saw him with just 48 yards on 19 carries in New England. Reggie Bush ran for 61 yards and one score on 12 carries and added six catches for 38 yards against the Packers for his best game of the year – by far. He scored only one more time and has been marginal at best since week four.

WIDE RECEIVER : Calvin Johnson is winding down one of his worst seasons that included missing four games due to injury and producing just four games with a touchdown. All four had 100+ yards but no others did as he turned in numerous unthinkably bad games. He ended with six catches for 82 yards against the Packers and what is worse is that all four of his big games were at home. None away from Detroit. Golden Tate was red hot through the first ten games but has cooled significantly and has just one score since week eight and marginal yardage. Tate turned in five catches for 51 yards in the other Packer game.

TIGHT END : No fantasy value.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: The Lions won the first meeting but it was less about offense since they only had 19 points – just one touchdown. The Packers at home are tougher against the run and have been very good holding most visiting opponents to only two passing scores or less. This will be no less tough on the Lions offense.

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The Packers stumbled in Buffalo or they would be on a seven game winning streak and they are a far better offense when they are at home anyway. They have averaged over 41 points when in Green Bay while the defense has held almost all opponents to 24 points or less. This is the most productive offense in the NFL and should be far better than back in week three on the road.

QUARTERBACK : Aaron Rodgers was held to only 162 passing yards and one score in Detroit for his worst effort of the year. Rodgers currently totals 36 passing scores and has eight games over 300 passing yards. Rodgers passed for multiple touchdowns in every home game this year and threw for over 300 yards in all but one. Rodgers pulled a calf muscle last week but played through the injury and is expected to be fine.

RUNNING BACK : The Lions held Eddie Lacy to only 36 yards for one of his worst games of the year. Lacy has been on a tear the last nine games with a score or two in six of the last seven and over 100 total yards in almost every game.. His last four home games all contained over 100 total yards and at least one touchdown. Lacy has a sore leg that saw him rest in the latter part of the Buccaneers game last week but he too is expected to be fine this week.

WIDE RECEIVER : Jordy Nelson only managed five catches for 50 yards in the first meeting with the Lions while Randall Cobb ended with three receptions for 29 yards. The duo have been far more prolific this year and Nelson totals 13 touchdowns and seven 100 yard efforts. Cobb scored ten times in the first nine games and then not at all in the last six weeks. He still has four 100 yard efforts including just last week when he had a season high 11 catches for 131 yards in Tampa Bay. Davante Adams usually has one or two short catches per week but did score in three home games.

TIGHT END : No reliable fantasy value here though the group has scored six times and yet never produced much yardage.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: The Lions on the road are less formidable and gave up two scores to the last four road quarterbacks and over 300 yards for Tom Brady and Drew Stanton. They only allowed one rushing score in Detroit but six scores on the road. All the principle players will have a better game here at home. Rodgers, Lacy, Nelson and Cobb are still all must starts.

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