Predictions Summary Projections by Position Projection Team Boxes

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Prediction: SD 20, KC 24 (Line: KC by 2.5)

UPDATE: For a critical game to the playoff hopes of each team, injuries are suddenly taking a bite out of what is going to happen. Alex Smith has a lacerated spleen and is gone. Chase Daniels will be the starter. Dwayne Bowe is listed as questionable because of his shoulder but finally had a limited practice on Friday and is expected to play. Jamaal Charles is also questionable and was limited in all practices but is expected to play. With Chase Daniels having his first start, the Chiefs will rely on Charles as much as they can. Ryan Mathews is out and Keenan Allen is not officially out yet but is doubtful after never practicing and is not expected to play.

This is a replay of week seven when the Chiefs won 23-20. The Chargers can clinch the final AFC wildcard with a win here or would need some unlikely events to happen like the Ravens getting beaten in Baltimore by UDFA quarterback Connor Shaw and the Cleveland Browns. This is an early game too so it all rides on winning this matchup that they already lost at home. The Chiefs still have a shot at that wildcard and merely need to win here, have the Browns beat the Ravens in Baltimore and the Texans to lose to the visiting Jaguars. Or better yet, just beat the Chargers and deny them the postseason for giggles.

Tall order here but not impossible. But the problem is that Ryan Matthews is likely to miss this week too with a sprained ankle and worse yet, Keenan Allen is still out because of his collar bone and also looks unlikely to play. Lastly Philip Rivers will play but has a bulging disk in his back that is about to be herniated but he’ll suck it up and play as he did last week. Tall order for a road game.

QUARTERBACK : Philip Rivers passed for 205 yards and two scores in the previous loss to the Chiefs but scored in all but one game this year. Last week he played with a reduced cast on the road and still toasted the 49ers with 356 yards and four touchdowns. He’ll gut it out with a bad back but this will be a far bigger test than last week against a crumbling 49ers squad.

RUNNING BACK : Ryan Mathews was out in the previous meeting with the Chiefs and Branden Oliver ran for 67 yards on 15 carries but did not score. With Mathews looking very questionable again, Oliver and Donald Brown will again spilt up the workload that is bound to be less than the previous home game. The Chargers have only five rushing touchdowns on the year and three went to Mathews. No other runner has scored since week six.

WIDE RECEIVER : With Keenan Allen out, this group is very ordinary. Allen accounted for a team high six catches for 58 yards in the last meeting with the Chiefs while Eddie Royal (1-20) and Malcom Floyd (3-50) had their normal moderate performances. Floyd has been stuck at the 50 yard mark in almost every game but at least Eddie Royal has improved on occasion and usually on the road. but he’s just as like to have no catches as a touchdown and any meaningful yardage. Dontrelle Inman was a surprise with seven catches for 79 yards last week in his first action.

TIGHT END : Antonio Gates went through a five week span of marginal stats but these last two weeks had 54 yards and a score against the Broncos and 92 yards and two touchdowns in San Francisco. Gates rang up three catches for 61 yards and a score versus the Chiefs last time.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: The Chiefs play better defense at home and have only allowed 11 scores to seven visitors this year and never more than two touchdowns to any offense. The rushing effort would be marginal with Matthews and even worse without out in Kansas City where they have never allowed a rushing score to an opponent. Hard to recommend any fantasy starters here though Rivers has done big things in bad situations before. Gates is likely the only safe start here.

Barring a tear in the Space-Time continuum, the Chiefs are out of the playoffs but more than happy to let their hometown fans watch the Chargers get kicked out of the playoffs as well. This will go down as the year of misusing Jamaal Charles and the day the wideouts died since they still have zero touchdowns on the year.

QUARTERBACK : Alex Smith is still just a caretaker quarterback who has totaled only 19 touchdowns and not once managed to score with a wide receiver. Smith threw for 221 yards and one score in San Diego. He only has three interceptions since the season opener and plays ball control but ends up as a liability when the Chiefs fall behind and have to throw in order to catch up. Smith’s last 11 games only produced ten passing scores and never more than two in any game.

RUNNING BACK : Jamaal Charles rushed for 95 yards and a score on 22 carries and added two catches for 12 yards in San Diego this year. But he’s only carried the ball 193 times this year despite keeping up his 5.1 yard average. His two previous years averaged 272 carries. He remains productive when he does run but has not been given more than 12 carries for the last four games. Knile Davis steals the occasional touchdown but doesn’t much dig into Charles workload. Final game of the year, it should be expected that Charles gets a heavy workload but it will be his first in a month.

WIDE RECEIVER : Seven different wide receivers, thousands of hours of practice time and not one freaking touchdown. No wideout has a 100 yard game either. This is the worst unit in the NFL for fantasy points and it is not really close. In San Diego, Dwayne Bowe caught five passes for 84 yards while the other four wide receivers turned six targets into three catches for 48 yards. This is like the witness protection program for wide receivers.

TIGHT END : The wide receivers never score but the tight ends have accounted for nine touchdowns this season and Travis Kelce owns five of them. Kelce started the season on a hot note like so many tight ends but has maintained at least decent stats since. He only scored once in the last seven games while Anthony Fasano caught three touchdowns in that time with almost no yardage. Kelce was held to four receptions for 33 yards in San Diego.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: Where this game has to turn is with the run. The Chargers have given up three 100 rushing yards games over their last four away games alone with four touchdowns. This has to be a big game for Charles who deserves to go out with a bang. The rest? Not worth considering.

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