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Prediction: DAL 27, GB 24 (Line: GB by 6)

UPDATE: Aaron Rodgers is listed as probable to play and was able to do limited work in practice on Thursday and Friday. He’ll play as expected and by all reports his ankle should not be a significant problem other than limiting his mobility.

This is the first time that a team that is 8-0 at home will host a team that is 0-8 on the road in the playoffs. While the parallels to the Ice Bowl are made, these are two vastly different sort of teams now. The weather calls for only 20 degrees with a small chance of light snow and it should be the game with the biggest impact from the weather. It has been ten years since all four home teams won in this round and the last three have seen exactly one road winner. The same was true of last week and once again a road team upset a home team. This game should be a Packers win at home but every year one team seems to be destined to advance in the playoffs almost as if fated while playing above their head. That seems most like the Cowboys this year. The health of Rodgers would have a big bearing here if his calf is a problem.

The Cowboys trailed the Lions 20-7 before coming to life in the second half and with that finally won a playoff game. It was not without controversy with the “call… no call”, the missed holding call and the uncalled penalty for Dez Bryant appearing on the field without a helmet. But in that way of a team winning in all kinds of ways, the Cowboys marched on in the playoffs despite their storied history of choking. The team remains healthy for this week and the value of a strong rushing game will be showcased on the frozen tundra. If Tony Romo dives in for a touchdown on the final play to win the game ala Bart Starr, you can legitimately wonder how scripted the game really is.

QUARTERBACK : Tony Romo is lighter on yardage this year and only topped 300 yards one all year but he’s thrown 36 touchdowns and had multiple scores in each of the last five weeks. Better yet, he only threw six touchdowns since the season opener and just one in the last five games while scoring 14 times. Romo passed for multiple scores over the last seven road games.

RUNNING BACK : DeMarco Murray may still have a broken bone in his left hand but he’s scored in each of the last six games and totaled 14 touchdowns on the year along with a league leading 393 carries for 1845 yards. Murray carries at least 19 times in every game. Despite the broken hand, Murray has fielded three passes in both of the last two games.

WIDE RECEIVER : Dez Bryant was held to his worst game of the year by the Lions when he ended with only 48 yards on three catches. But the Lions sported a great rush defense that allowed the secondary to primarily play Bryant on every play. Bryant gained 153 yards and one score against the Packers last year. Terrance Williams comes off his best game of the year when he gained 92 yards and two scores last week. But Williams has been very quiet for most of the second half of the year and hasn’t scored on the road since back in week three. Cole Beasley is up to eight or nine targets per game now but still has never gained more than 66 yards in any game. Beasley usually ends up around 50 yards every week.

TIGHT END : Though Jason Witten scored just once in the last six weeks, he remains a big part of the passing equation and is reeling in four to seven catches per week for the last month. He’s been good for 60+ yards for the last month and remains a primary read on every third down.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: The Packers have allowed multiple passing score over the last four home games including up to four touchdowns that Matt Ryan posted there. The Packers are good against the run and not allowed any runner to top 100 rush yards in Green Bay but Murray is a must start. The Packers have not allowed any tight end to score on them but the weakness against wide receivers has been worse in the last month and this is where the Cowboys either will or will not win the game. Murray will have some success and likely a score but it all depends on how well Tony Romo connects with the wide receivers.

The Packers ended the season with a win over the Lions to take the division title and ensure a first round bye. But in the process, Aaron Rodgers pulled up lame with a calf injury that is unlikely to be 100% healthy by this weekend. The rest of the offense remains in good shape otherwise and Eddie Lacey is healthy and running well to help the effort. But even a win here would likely mean a trip to Seattle where they lost 16-36 in the season opener.

QUARTERBACK : Aaron Rodgers was held out of practice on Wednesday but will be back and is fully expected to play this week. The Packers are not worried about his status and Rodgers has long ago abandoned any urge to run the ball anyway. Rodgers has been good for multiple scores in almost all home games but turned in more than two only when facing one of the weakest secondaries.

RUNNING BACK : Eddie Lacey scored 13 times this year and has been a factor both as a runner and a receiver. He’s turned in over 100 total yards in every game since midseason and scored in five of the last seven home games. Lacey rushed for at least 95 yards in five of the last six games and should see no less work as the weather gets colder. He ran a season high 26 times in week 17 against the Lions.

WIDE RECEIVER : Jordy Nelson may have been paid the big bucks last summer but there has been no decline in his level of play. Nelson racked up 13 touchdowns on the season and broke 100 yards in seven different games. Randall Cobb scored 12 times and broke the century mark five times as well. Cobb had been held scoreless since week ten but then turned in two scores in the season finale versus the Lions. They make up the most productive wideout duo in the league. At least one of them if not both scored in every home game this year.

TIGHT END : Richard Rogers is slowly making a name for himself and totaled five receptions for 40 yards in the recent win over the Lions. But he only scored twice all year and none of Packers tight ends normally have more than one or two catches per game.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: This should be at least a good game for the offense with Lacey likely to turn in lower yardage but should score. Rodgers faces a secondary that only allowed six touchdowns to wideouts over the eight road games but at least the Cowboys are the worst going against tight ends. Richard Rogers doesn’t spawn much confidence though and the best you can bank on is just a few more catches. No reason to bench any of the big four here – Rodgers, Lacey, Nelson and Cobb all should produce fantasy value as always

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