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Prediction: GB 17, SEA 30 (Line: SEA by 7.5)

This is a replay of the season opener when the Seahawks had no problems dominating the Packers 36-16. The Packers mounted a comeback to beat the visiting Cowboys 26-21 in a game at least Cowboy fans felt was unduly affected by the referees. The Seahawks beat the Panthers 31-17 in a game that was closer than anticipated until the fourth quarter when the Seahawks walked away with the win. Homefield counts big in the NFL and the Seahawks are 8-1 in Seattle this year. It may rain that day but it is expected to be around 52° so wet but rather mild for a January game.

The Packers are only 4-4 away from home and never beat a team with a winning record on the road. That doesn’t bode that well when visiting perhaps the worst place to play in the NFL and one that already swallowed up the Packers to begin the season. This is pretty much the exact same squad that showed up in week one and the 16 points they scored then was more than they managed against the other two road opponents who had winning records.

QUARTERBACK : Aaron Rodgers was hopping between plays in the win over the Cowboys but made it through the game without any problems and passed for 316 yards and three touchdowns. Rodgers was held to only 189 yards in the opener in Seattle and threw just one touchdown while being intercepted once. Rodgers only threw five interceptions all year though all did come in road games. He’s practiced better this week than last and his calf shouldn’t be any worse than it was last Sunday and likely better. Take away the game in Chicago and Rodgers only managed to toss nine touchdowns over seven road games. At home he’s thrown 25 scores during the regular season.

RUNNING BACK : Eddie Lacy missed time last week when the cold gave him an asthma attack but he still ended with 101 yards on 19 carries against the Cowboys. James Starks was only given five carries in that game which is roughly normal for the last month. Lacy was held to only 34 yards on 12 carries in Seattle in week one while Starks gained 37 yards on seven runs. The weather should be plenty warm enough so that Lacy has no breathing problems and he ran plenty well enough against the Cowboys anyway. Neither back has done too much as a receiver. Starks has not caught a pass in three weeks and Lacy rarely had more than three catches in any game this year. He left Seattle with only three receptions for 11 yards in the opener. John Kuhn did bull in a score in the opener on his only run in the game.

WIDE RECEIVER : Davante Adams came up big last week with 117 yards on seven catches with one touchdown but he’s unlikely to have any success this week. The Packers moved Jarrett Boykin over to CB Richard Sherman in the opener and predictably had no catches while Sherman described the game as “boring”. This time they’ll stick Adams over for Sherman to cover. But in the opener, Jordy Nelson only managed 83 yards on nine receptions and Randall Cobb gained just 58 yards on six catches though he scored the lone receiving touchdown in the game. Nelson and Cobb are the most productive duo in the league this year with 25 scores and 13 100 yard performances between them but the Seahawks were able to hold them to only a collective 141 yards on 15 rather short catches.

TIGHT END : The tight ends accounted for two scores last week. Andrew Quarless (4-31) and Richard Rogers (1-13) both found the endzone but both ended the regular season with just three touchdowns each and only Quarless caught a pass in Seattle when he ended with three catches for 26 yards. They may occasionally catch a touchdown but the yardage from any Packers tight end is always low.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: The Seahawks have never allowed more than two scores to any visiting quarterback and Rodgers only had one in the season opener. Rodgers also lacks mobility which was a minor issue last week but could become a bigger factor here, particularly if the Packers have to abandon the rushing effort and throw. This is the #1 defense against both quarterbacks and wide receivers. Aside from DeMarco Murray, the Seahawks have held opposing runners under 70 yards in every game and most never see more than around 40 yards. Lacy only managed 34 yards in week one. The Pack will look to run Lacy as much as they can for whatever that may be worth – likely not a lot and he doesn’t catch the ball much anyway. Both Nelson and Cobb will remain the primary weapons even if the passes are underneath but at least the Seahawks are much weaker on the left side where Nelson should play. This is bound to be better than the opener but nothing so far says it will be that much better.

The Seahawks had trouble separating themselves from the Panthers last week until the fourth quarter rolled around. They reeled off 17 straight points that included a 90 yard interception return for a score. The Panthers were able to contain Marshawn Lynch – rare at home – but that only let Russell Wilson do even more than usual. The Seahawks at home have been as good as any team for the last two years and they are peaking at the right time.

QUARTERBACK : With the rushing game stalled against the Panthers, Russell Wilson did what he had never done all season – he threw for three touchdowns. His 268 yards were also higher than normal. Wilson passed for 191 yards and two scores in the first meeting with the Packers. He also rushed for 29 yards on seven carries in that game but ran little in the initial three games of the year. Wilson scored six times as a runner though only two came in home games. Wilson is the wildcard of the team. He’ll do whatever is needed to win – pass, handoff or run himself.

RUNNING BACK : Marshawn Lynch finished the regular season with four straight games where he scored at least once and ended with around 100 total yards or more. Lynch was held to only 59 yards on 14 carries last week by the solid rush defense of the Panthers but he ripped off two touchdowns and 110 yards on 20 carries in the season opener. Lynch also adds around three receptions in recent games as well. 12 of his 17 touchdowns came in home games.

WIDE RECEIVER : Paul Richardson tore his ACL last week and is out for the playoffs and may not be ready for the start of next season. The Seahawks rarely resort to the #3 wideout anyway and even less when they can run the ball well. Jermaine Kearse turned in a season high 129 yards and one score last week thanks to a 63-yard scoring play but he’s normally held to only one or two short catches in most games. Kearse only caught one pass in the opener for eight yards. Doug Baldwin also scored against the Packers but only ended with 38 yards on three receptions. Baldwin only caught three passes for 14 yards in the earlier meeting with the Packers. With three touchdowns on the year, Baldwin was the leading scorer for the wideouts but this is one of the least productive units in the NFL thanks to the rushing of Lynch and a defense that rarely allows a shootout to happen.

TIGHT END : Normally the tight end has no real role here other than blocking. But Luke Wilson turned in four catches for 68 yards and one score last week. He had 139 yards and two scores in Arizona in week 16. But the key here is that those games went against great rushing defenses that forced the Seahawks to throw. That won’t happen nearly as much against the Packers. In week one, Wilson only threw one pass to a tight end for a one yard gain by Wilson. Tight ends block at home against a defense that will give up the run.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: The Packers are not only soft against the pass, they’ve been worse later in the year and almost all road opponents scored twice or more against them – as did Wilson back in the opener. They only faced three really good runners on the road and allowed 100+ rushing yards to each. Any runner with 20 or more carries topped 100 yards on them and just last week they allowed 123 yards and a score to DeMarco Murray. Lynch will figure in heavily again this meeting and they’ve rested him during the week to keep him fresh. This should end up really close to what happened in the first meeting anyway – the Packers defense is no better and may be worse.

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