Fantasy Football Pre-Season Preview: Quarterbacks

By The Huddle | July 22, 2015 12:00 am ET

OTHER POSITIONS: Quarterbacks | Running Backs | Receivers

What’s the opposite of position scarcity? The glut of passing game production—2014 saw record numbers of completions and passing touchdowns—has diluted the quarterback position to the point that the average draft position of the final quarterback off the board in a 12-team league is Round 9. Do you overpay for the rock-solid consistency of the elite quarterbacks? Roll the dice and hope your favorite sleeper falls into your lap? Or stream the position week to week, attempting to capitalize on the aforementioned surplus of passing stats? To help you answer these burning questions, here’s a breakdown of not only the position’s productivity over the past few years but also each team’s recent passing-game production—and what’s in store for the upcoming campaign.

Position Totals by Year

Year	Passes	Comps	Pass Yards	YPC	Pass TD	Int	Runs	Rush Yards	Rush TD
2005	16,433	9,776	111,478	11.4	639	507	1,384	4,564	44
2006	16,350	9,786	112,038	11.4	643	516	1,425	5,221	44
2007	17,023	10,414	116,615	11.2	715	534	1,305	4,001	40
2008	16,486	10,060	114,456	11.4	638	463	1,316	4,435	48
2009	16,992	10,356	118,600	11.5	703	517	1,336	4,292	45
2010	17,236	10,476	120,755	11.5	746	510	1,420	5,659	46
2011	17,357	10,437	124,886	12.0	741	503	1,571	6,075	66
2012	17,766	10,823	125,687	11.6	753	466	1,587	6,577	66
2013	18,110	11,088	128,953	11.6	799	501	1,707	7,737	57
2014	17,849	11,183	128,581	11.5	803	449	1,647	6,646	47

Has the “running quarterback” trend peaked? Attempts and yardage were down, and touchdowns dropped off to pre-RG3/Russell Wilson levels. Meanwhile completions were up, passing yardage held firm and passing touchdowns were at an all-time high. Those inflated passing numbers also explain why waiting on your fantasy quarterback is the hot trend of the day; why spend a second-round pick on a 40-touchdown guy when three or four 30-TD options will still be on the board six rounds later?

Top Ten Quarterback Totals

Year	Passes	Comps	Pass Yards	Pass TD	Runs	Rush Yards	Rush TD	FF Pts
2005	4,999	3,098	36,432	233	370	1,223	13	2,721
2006	5,161	3,118	36,985	222	451	2,123	18	2,474
2007	5,319	3,434	40,090	315	287	674	14	3,416
2008	5,490	3,505	40,904	263	417	1,289	13	3,305
2009	5,356	3,554	43,778	294	303	746	12	3,219
2010	5,487	3,547	40,917	290	392	1,399	14	3,431
2011	5,750	3,669	45,839	334	430	1,519	32	3,972
2012	5,937	3,753	44,990	295	522	2,427	33	3,741
2013	5,939	3,812	43,950	313	451	1,699	20	3,738
2014	5,841	3,830	44,683	318	443	2,051	14	3,795

While overall quarterback rushing yardage was down the top 10 QBs saw their yardage tick back up–mimicking the league’s preference for mobile quarterbacks who can also throw (see Rodgers, Aaron). Those same quarterbacks–multi-million dollar investments all–are choosing to score by air rather than by land, with rush TDs down more than 50 percent from two seasons ago while passing touchdowns continuing to climb. It’s the model most NFL teams are seeking–and having success with. So if Jameis Winston can move or Marcus Mariota can throw…

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Arizona Cardinals

Year	Pass	Rank	Comp	Rank	Passing Yards	Rank	TDs	Rank	Int	Rank
2012	608	9	337	14	3,383	27	11	31	21	32
2013	572	17	362	15	4,274	12	24	15	22	28
2014	566	15	319	24	3,980	17	21	19	12	8

Arizona went 6-0 with Carson Palmer healthy last season, and 5-3 with backup Drew Stanton handling snaps. But when knee injuries prematurely ended the seasons of both Palmer and Stanton, the Cardinals were in deep trouble. Logan Thomas didn’t stand out with extra reps during OTAs and his job may be in jeopardy, but Bruce Arians has to hope he won’t be mining the bottom of his QB depth chart again this season. Project Palmer’s numbers last year over a full 16 games and he was approximately Philip Rivers—in other words, a top-10 fantasy contributor. With an ADP in the 15th round (QB27) you won’t have to overpay for Palmer, and with the Cardinals again devoting their offseason to beefing up their offensive line there’s definitely upside to his game.

Atlanta Falcons

Year	Pass	Rank	Comp	Rank	Passing Yards	Rank	TDs	Rank	Int	Rank
2012	615	8	422	4	4,719	5	32	5	14	13
2013	658	3	444	3	4,549	4	26	11	17	19
2014	632	3	418	2	4,758	5	28	11	15	16

The arrival of Kyle Shanahan in Atlanta suggests the Falcons’ offensive emphasis will switch to the running game. However, with the passing game weapons Atlanta possesses there will still be plenty of opportunity for Matt Ryan to record a fifth straight 4,000-yard, 25-touchdown campaign. Where the Falcons’ new offense could help Ryan this year is with a play-action passing game, moving pocket and quicker offensive linemen who can keep Ryan’s sack numbers trending in the right direction. Ryan’s QB5 ADP means you won’t be getting any bargains, but there’s nothing wrong with a sixth-round investment in a solid blue-chip stock.

Baltimore Ravens

Year	Pass	Rank	Comp	Rank	Passing Yards	Rank	TDs	Rank	Int	Rank
2012	560	15	334	15	3,996	14	22	20	11	6
2013	619	8	363	13	3,914	19	19	26	23	31
2014	555	16	344	17	3,986	16	27	12	12	8

Fantasy owners continue to be underwhelmed by Joe Flacco consistently clocking in on the fringe of fantasy assistance, as his QB20 ADP attests. But he’s been a whisker under 4,000 yards each of the past three seasons, with a career-high 27 touchdown tosses last year—and noted quarterback whisperer Marc Trestman is his new play-caller. Torrey Smith and Owen Daniels are gone, replaced by rookies Breshad Perriman and Maxx Williams, so there may be growing pains. But there should also be an uptick in high-percentage throws to Justin Forsett, much like Trestman used Matt Forte last year. Ultimately, Flacco will once again be undervalued by fantasy owners—and once again provide a solid return on a low-end investment.

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