The Brief History of Wide Receivers >>
Each year we rightfully obsess over players and especially what they did last season. Seems reasonable enough. But often a player’s performance won’t match the previous season for a myriad of reasons. Nevertheless, many fantasy footballers start out with the end of the season rankings and figure a bit of tweaking is all that needs. It feels great when your roster looks like it would dominate the previous season. At least until you have to use it this year.
Is there anything to glean by taking a step back? Instead of solely focusing on last year, what about what happens to top NFL players over their career? If a high percentage of top players show consistency in any aspect, it is definitely worth considering for your draft picks this season.
This review only considers running backs who ended with a Top 20 performance considering standard performance scoring . Any further back and you get into a time when different sorts of players were popular, injuries were much more catastrophic and offenses were different. It is a good duration too as it is long enough to show the ups and downs of many players. Top 20 backs are all used on fantasy teams and the Top 10 backs are the difference makers.
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Where the Top 20 ranked the previous season
| Top 20 | 2014 | 2013 | Top 20 | 2013 | 2012 | Top 20 | 2012 | 2011 | Top 20 | 2011 | 2010 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le’Veon Bell | 1 | 15 | Jamaal Charles | 1 | 9 | Adrian Peterson | 1 | 15 | Ray Rice | 1 | 7 |
| DeMarco Murray | 2 | 6 | Matt Forte | 2 | 11 | Doug Martin | 2 | – | LeSean McCoy | 2 | 3 |
| Matt Forte | 3 | 2 | LeSean McCoy | 3 | 16 | Arian Foster | 3 | 3 | Arian Foster | 3 | 1 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 4 | 5 | Knowshon Moreno | 4 | 36 | Ray Rice | 4 | 1 | M. Jones-Drew | 4 | 13 |
| Eddie Lacy | 5 | 8 | Marshawn Lynch | 5 | 5 | Marshawn Lynch | 5 | 6 | Darren Sproles | 5 | 29 |
| Arian Foster | 6 | 46 | DeMarco Murray | 6 | 26 | C.J. Spiller | 6 | 27 | Marshawn Lynch | 6 | 32 |
| Jamaal Charles | 7 | 1 | Reggie Bush | 7 | 14 | Alfred Morris | 7 | – | Ryan Mathews | 7 | 31 |
| Justin Forsett | 8 | 100 | Eddie Lacy | 8 | – | Trent Richardson | 8 | – | Michael Turner | 8 | 14 |
| Lamar Miller | 9 | 36 | Chris Johnson | 9 | 12 | Jamaal Charles | 9 | 107 | Chris Johnson | 9 | 6 |
| Jeremy Hill | 10 | – | Adrian Peterson | 10 | 1 | Frank Gore | 10 | 17 | Steven Jackson | 10 | 12 |
| C.J. Anderson | 11 | 146 | Fred Jackson | 11 | 34 | Matt Forte | 11 | 11 | Matt Forte | 11 | 9 |
| LeSean McCoy | 12 | 3 | Danny Woodhead | 12 | 24 | Chris Johnson | 12 | 9 | Michael Bush | 12 | 28 |
| Joique Bell | 13 | 14 | Giovani Bernard | 13 | – | Darren Sproles | 13 | 5 | Reggie Bush | 13 | 58 |
| Mark Ingram | 14 | 65 | Joique Bell | 14 | 23 | Reggie Bush | 14 | 13 | Fred Jackson | 14 | 21 |
| Matt Asiata | 15 | 78 | Le’Veon Bell | 15 | – | Stevan Ridley | 15 | 74 | Adrian Peterson | 15 | 5 |
| Giovani Bernard | 16 | 13 | Pierre Thomas | 16 | 32 | LeSean McCoy | 16 | 2 | Michael Tolbert | 16 | – |
| Alfred Morris | 17 | 19 | Ryan Mathews | 17 | 30 | Steven Jackson | 17 | 10 | Frank Gore | 17 | 16 |
| Fred Jackson | 18 | 11 | Frank Gore | 18 | 10 | Mikel Leshoure | 18 | – | Jonathan Stewart | 18 | 44 |
| Andre Ellington | 19 | 26 | Alfred Morris | 19 | 7 | Shonn Greene | 19 | 20 | Ahmad Bradshaw | 19 | 10 |
| Frank Gore | 20 | 18 | Zac Stacy | 20 | – | Ahmad Bradshaw | 20 | 19 | Shonn Greene | 20 | 43 |
You should discount the results of last year. For the previous eight seasons, there had never been more than four running backs return to a Top 10 performance and usually just three did. But five repeated in the Top Ten in 2014 and even the 11th through 20th best backs contained six players who repeated as a Top 20. 2014 was the most consistent year for running backs in over a decade.
Look at the Top 10 from 2014 above. Know that five or six of those players will not be Top 10 and at least three of them won’t even end up in the Top 20 this season. Arian Foster is an obvious casualty with his groin injury but who else? Le’Veon Bell, Justin Forsett, Lamar Miller and Jeremy Hill had never been in the Top 10 before.
It is easy to see just how changing the running back position is as the Top 20 players will always be fantasy starters. There are just a lot of them each year who were not fantasy starters the previous season.
The Top 10 is where the difference makers lie. It would be really rare for a fantasy team to win without at least a few premier players. Drafting a “solid” team that contains no elite players is another way to just donate your league fee to someone else. Those top players are where your championship is won.
So you know all too well the Top 10 from last year. Where will they go this year? Here is where Top 10 players ended up the following season for the last ten years. The 2013 column shows what they became in 2014, 2012 shows where they ended up in 2013, etc..
What Top 10 Players became the next season
| 2013 | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 | |
| Top 10 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
| 11th to 20th | 1 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 3 |
| 21st to 50th | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 2 |
| 50+ | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Look at the numbers. A Top 10 player has only a 30% to 40% chance of repeating the next year. Worse yet, usually three to five don’t even end up in the Top 20 the following season. Let’s move on to one of those immutable truths.
This is Adrian Peterson’s Decade and we only live in it
Over the last ten years, there are only 22 players who turned in more than one Top 10 season. And 35 running backs produced only one Top 10 season over the last decade. That’s roughly three or four backs per year who not only don’t repeat the next year, they never ever repeat. Adrian Peterson is a definite anomaly with six Top 10’s and likely seven had he played in 2014.
Running Backs with at least two Top 10’s over the last 10 years
| Player Ranked | Top 10 | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 |
| Adrian Peterson | 6 | 128 | 10 | 1 | 15 | 5 | 2 | 9 | 5 | – | – |
| Matt Forte | 4 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 11 | 9 | 12 | 1 | – | – | – |
| Marshawn Lynch | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 32 | 45 | 13 | 16 | – | – |
| Arian Foster | 4 | 6 | 46 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 69 | – | – | – | – |
| Jamaal Charles | 4 | 7 | 1 | 9 | 107 | 4 | 11 | 54 | – | – | – |
| Chris Johnson | 4 | 39 | 9 | 12 | 9 | 6 | 1 | 11 | – | – | – |
| Ray Rice | 4 | – | 22 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 49 | – | – | – |
| Frank Gore | 4 | 20 | 18 | 10 | 17 | 16 | 5 | 14 | 7 | 5 | 41 |
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 4 | 99 | 21 | 53 | 4 | 13 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 8 | – |
| Steven Jackson | 4 | 28 | 30 | 17 | 10 | 12 | 7 | 15 | 15 | 2 | 9 |
| Ladainian Tomlinson | 4 | – | – | – | 35 | 15 | 24 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| LeSean McCoy | 3 | 12 | 3 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 32 | – | – | – | – |
| Brian Westbrook | 3 | – | – | – | – | 49 | 53 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 11 |
| Clinton Portis | 3 | – | – | – | – | 73 | 57 | 10 | 3 | 37 | 7 |
| DeMarco Murray | 2 | 2 | 6 | 26 | 30 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Eddie Lacy | 2 | 5 | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Reggie Bush | 2 | 42 | 7 | 14 | 13 | 58 | 29 | 27 | 12 | 9 | – |
| Michael Turner | 2 | – | – | 21 | 8 | 14 | 34 | 4 | 78 | 58 | 74 |
| Joseph Addai | 2 | – | – | – | 58 | 46 | 8 | 39 | 4 | 13 | – |
| Thomas Jones | 2 | – | – | – | 71 | 27 | 9 | 5 | 22 | 18 | 10 |
| Tiki Barber | 2 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 6 | 3 |
| Larry Johnson | 2 | – | – | – | 168 | 156 | 170 | 40 | 36 | 3 | 2 |
It is odd enough that Peterson leads all backs with six Top 10 showings. But that four seems to be the upper limit otherwise. Tomlinson totaled eight in his career and Clinton Portis had five. But those were bleed-over’s from the Decade of The Running Back (about 1997 until 2007). What is really odd is that only Peterson had more than four Top 10’s and yet Matt Forte, Marshawn Lynch, Arian Foster, Jamaal Charles and Frank Gore are all starters and ready for a potential fifth Top 10 (Foster is already hurt and already a lock to slip). That hasn’t been done since NFL offenses started to change after 2007. The new NFL doesn’t use primary backs the same as they once did. Forte, Lynch, Charles and Gore are all candidates to break the five game barrier. Forte, Lynch and Charles are usually first round picks again this year. And what if Chris Johnson ends up with the Cowboys? Can two or three players suddenly do what has not been done in many years or are they about to hit a wall?
Just because it hasn’t happened in a decade (exception Peterson), doesn’t mean that any of those running backs can’t notch their fifth Top 10. But it is notably consistent. Five seasons is a long time as a difference maker in the NFL and a lot of wear and tear on a body. A Top 10 running back always has at least 250 touches a year if not 300 or 350.
If you want to see just how tough it is for any back to repeat in the Top 20 and especially the Top 10, take a gander below to view the rankings of every running back in the last ten years who had at least one Top 20 season. A few notables to think about:
1. Justin Forsett broke out in his sixth season. No one else comes close to taking that long. Kind of like Earnest Graham, Peyton Hillis, Ladell Betts or Knowshon Moreno who all played a lot of years but only managed one Top 10 and not much else that close. What Forsett did last year is almost unheard of in the NFL.
2. Mark Ingram also had one big year after three disappointments. At least he is still young.
3. Lamar Miller really improved in his third season. No other back (besides Forsett) had a more inauspicious career beginning but he was backing up Reggie Bush as a rookie.
4. Frank Gore has nine straight seasons as a Top 20 running back.
5. If you want a sense of how big the turnover is in the Top 10, remove Forte, Lynch, Peterson and Charles.
6. Last year had four different running backs hitting their first ever Top 10. That means major value lies in deeper drafted backs.
7. Considering the Top 10 of last year, only five were present in 2013. Only three were there in 2012 and only two in 2011. When you make a keeper decision, realize how short most running backs careers really are.
Running Backs who had at least one Top 20 over the last 10 years
| PLAYER | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 |
| Le’Veon Bell | 1 | 15 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| DeMarco Murray | 2 | 6 | 26 | 30 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Matt Forte | 3 | 2 | 11 | 11 | 9 | 12 | 1 | – | – | – |
| Marshawn Lynch | 4 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 32 | 45 | 13 | 16 | – | – |
| Eddie Lacy | 5 | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Arian Foster | 6 | 46 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 69 | – | – | – | – |
| Jamaal Charles | 7 | 1 | 9 | 107 | 4 | 11 | 54 | – | – | – |
| Justin Forsett | 8 | 100 | 72 | 73 | 40 | 28 | – | – | – | – |
| Lamar Miller | 9 | 36 | 83 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Jeremy Hill | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| C.J. Anderson | 11 | 146 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| LeSean McCoy | 12 | 3 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 32 | – | – | – | – |
| Joique Bell | 13 | 14 | 23 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Mark Ingram | 14 | 65 | 42 | 46 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Matt Asiata | 15 | 78 | 149 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Giovani Bernard | 16 | 13 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Alfred Morris | 17 | 19 | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Fred Jackson | 18 | 11 | 34 | 14 | 21 | 14 | 38 | 60 | – | – |
| Andre Ellington | 19 | 26 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Frank Gore | 20 | 18 | 10 | 17 | 16 | 5 | 14 | 7 | 5 | 41 |
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 22 | 77 | 20 | 19 | 10 | 31 | 73 | 94 | – | – |
| Jonathan Stewart | 24 | 93 | 51 | 18 | 44 | 15 | 33 | – | – | – |
| Darren Sproles | 25 | 23 | 13 | 5 | 29 | 27 | 41 | 81 | – | 129 |
| Steven Jackson | 28 | 30 | 17 | 10 | 12 | 7 | 15 | 15 | 2 | 9 |
| Pierre Thomas | 34 | 16 | 32 | 21 | 54 | 19 | 19 | 61 | – | – |
| Darren McFadden | 35 | 51 | 25 | 36 | 8 | 51 | 42 | – | – | – |
| Trent Richardson | 36 | 145 | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Chris Johnson | 39 | 9 | 12 | 9 | 6 | 1 | 11 | – | – | – |
| Reggie Bush | 42 | 7 | 14 | 13 | 58 | 29 | 27 | 12 | 9 | – |
| Doug Martin | 51 | 56 | 2 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Zac Stacy | 66 | 20 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| C.J. Spiller | 68 | 27 | 6 | 27 | 59 | – | – | – | – | – |
| Ryan Mathews | 69 | 17 | 30 | 7 | 31 | – | – | – | – | – |
| Shonn Greene | 78 | 60 | 19 | 20 | 43 | 65 | – | – | – | – |
| Stevan Ridley | 79 | 34 | 15 | 74 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| DeAngelo Williams | 94 | 25 | 27 | 29 | 65 | 17 | 2 | 30 | 38 | – |
| Peyton Hillis | 95 | 64 | 70 | 44 | 2 | 114 | 51 | – | – | – |
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 99 | 21 | 53 | 4 | 13 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 8 | – |
| Knowshon Moreno | 104 | 4 | 36 | 81 | 18 | 18 | – | – | – | – |
| Danny Woodhead | 125 | 12 | 24 | 57 | 25 | – | – | – | – | – |
| Adrian Peterson | 128 | 10 | 1 | 15 | 5 | 2 | 9 | 5 | – | – |
| Ronnie Brown | 274 | 84 | 39 | 109 | 26 | 39 | 17 | 23 | 22 | 23 |
| Mikel Leshoure | – | 159 | 18 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Lamont Jordan | – | – | – | – | – | 130 | 70 | 39 | 57 | 6 |
| Cedric Benson | – | – | 68 | 26 | 17 | 20 | 43 | 42 | 42 | 94 |
| Warrick Dunn | – | – | – | – | – | – | 28 | 28 | 25 | 13 |
| Joseph Addai | – | – | – | 58 | 46 | 8 | 39 | 4 | 13 | – |
| Larry Johnson | – | – | – | 168 | 156 | 53 | 40 | 36 | 3 | 2 |
| Edgerrin James | – | – | – | – | – | 113 | 56 | 13 | 17 | 5 |
| Ladell Betts | – | – | – | – | 63 | 63 | 62 | 54 | 10 | 62 |
| Deuce McAllister | – | – | – | – | – | – | 47 | 118 | 16 | 54 |
| Shaun Alexander | – | – | – | – | – | – | 148 | 40 | 33 | 1 |
| Steve Slaton | – | – | – | 264 | 117 | 26 | 7 | – | – | – |
| Chris Brown | – | – | – | – | – | 62 | – | 46 | 107 | 20 |
| Brian Westbrook | – | – | – | – | 49 | 53 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 11 |
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | – | 39 | 22 | 28 | 19 | 118 | 67 | – | – | – |
| Rashard Mendenhall | – | 31 | 85 | 22 | 11 | 16 | 127 | – | – | – |
| Jahvid Best | – | – | – | 43 | 20 | – | – | – | – | – |
| Tiki Barber | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 6 | 3 |
| Willie Parker | – | – | – | – | – | 73 | 46 | 20 | 7 | 18 |
| Fred Taylor | – | – | – | – | 102 | 75 | 57 | 25 | 20 | 36 |
| Domanick Davis | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 15 |
| Tim Hightower | – | – | – | 68 | 35 | 13 | 32 | – | – | – |
| Ryan Grant | – | – | 260 | 37 | 135 | 10 | 24 | 17 | – | – |
| Michael Turner | – | – | 21 | 8 | 14 | 34 | 4 | 78 | 58 | 74 |
| Marion Barber | – | – | – | 49 | 56 | 22 | 12 | 8 | 19 | 38 |
| LenDale White | – | – | – | – | – | 83 | 26 | 18 | 72 | – |
| Rudi Johnson | – | – | – | – | – | – | 74 | 50 | 11 | 8 |
| Michael Bush | – | 68 | 46 | 12 | 28 | 44 | 55 | – | – | – |
| Michael Tolbert | – | 40 | 37 | 16 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Clinton Portis | – | – | – | – | 73 | 57 | 10 | 3 | 37 | 7 |
| Thomas Jones | – | – | – | 71 | 27 | 9 | 5 | 22 | 18 | 10 |
| Earnest Graham | – | – | – | 67 | 69 | 89 | 44 | 10 | 126 | 131 |
| Chester Taylor | – | – | – | 89 | 55 | 40 | 31 | 19 | 14 | 34 |
| Priest Holmes | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 103 | – | 31 |
| Kenny Watson | – | – | – | – | – | – | 132 | 14 | 62 | – |
| Brandon Jacobs | – | 70 | 161 | 34 | 30 | 33 | 18 | 21 | 40 | 73 |
| Ahman Green | – | – | – | – | – | 93 | 68 | 64 | 15 | 66 |
| Reuben Droughns | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 58 | 34 | 14 |
| Willis McGahee | – | 63 | 28 | 25 | 51 | 30 | 35 | 9 | 26 | 16 |
| Mike Anderson | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 125 | 79 | 12 |
| Julius Jones | – | – | – | – | 218 | 36 | 50 | 44 | 29 | 19 |
| Ladainian Tomlinson | – | – | – | 35 | 15 | 24 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| Ray Rice | – | 22 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 49 | – | – | – |
| Kevin Smith | – | – | 78 | 41 | 82 | 21 | 16 | – | – | – |
| Kevin Jones | – | – | – | – | – | – | 113 | 27 | 12 | 32 |
| Corey Dillon | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 23 | 17 |
| Derrick Ward | – | – | – | 92 | 61 | 49 | 20 | 38 | – | 113 |
| Jamal Lewis | – | – | – | – | – | 64 | 30 | 6 | 21 | 25 |
| Ricky Williams | – | – | – | 56 | 41 | 6 | 37 | 155 | – | 28 |
