Game Predictions & Player Projections - GB vs. CHI

Game Predictions & Player Projections - GB vs. CHI


Game Predictions & Player Projections - GB vs. CHI


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Prediction: GB 34, CHI 17 (Line: GB by 6.5)

Update: Randall Cobb is probable to play with his shoulder sprain but won’t be 100%. Both Alshon Jeffery and Eddie Royal are listed as questionable. Jeffery will be a game time decision and Royal is expected to play. Check on Jeffery’s pregame status if you intend on using him and realize he won’t be 100% if he plays.

Injury Report
Wednesday – (Limited) Randall Cobb (shoulder), Alshon Jeffery (calf), Eddie Royal (hip)

Thursday – (Limited) Randall Cobb (shoulder), Alshon Jeffery (calf), Eddie Royal (hip)
Friday – (Limited) Randall Cobb (shoulder), Alshon Jeffery (calf), Eddie Royal (hip)

The Packers were 12-4 last season with a 4-4 road record. The Bears were 5-11 and just 2-6 at home and are currently in a five game losing streak.

There were almost no changes in Green Bay to the offense until Jordy Nelson blew out his knee and landed on Injured Reserve. Ty Montgomery was taken in the third round but all receivers get a bump up the depth charts now. Head coach Mike McCarthy starts his tenth year and the consistency and stability of this team is a strength.

The Bears are a different story. They swept out the coaching offices and brought in John Fox as head coach and Adam Gase continues to be his offensive coordinator now in Chicago. Brandon Marshall is gone and the Bears spent their first round pick on Kevin White which will pay off handsomely once he is over his shin injury (maybe 2016). The pass-heavy offense of Marc Trestman will settle back to more rushing but the offensive line has been a weakness for many years.

The Packers swept the Bears last year, winning 55-14 at home and 39-17 in Chicago.

Green Bay Packers

1 @CHI —— 10 DET ——
2 SEA —— 11 @MIN ——
3 KC —— 12 CHI ——
4 @SF —— 13 @DET ——
5 STL —— 14 DAL ——
6 SD —— 15 @OAK ——
7 BYE —— 16 @ARI ——
8 @DEN —— 17 MIN ——
9 @CAR ——  
News | Statistics | Roster
GB @ CHI Rush Catch Pass
QB Aaron Rodgers 10 310,3
RB Eddie Lacy 60,1 4-30
WR Davante Adams 6-90,1
WR Randall Cobb 4-70
WR Ty Montgomery 3-50,1
TE Jared Cook 2-20
TE Richard Rodgers 4-40,1
PK Mason Crosby 2 FG 4 XP

Losing Jordy Nelson seems like a major setback to the Packers but then again – what would Jordy have been like on any other NFL teams? Aaron Rodgers can make the adjustment and simply create new fantasy stars – most likely Davante Adams who replaces Nelson. The offense remains consistent from year to year which is a major strength. Compensating for Nelson may take a little time but there is likely no better place to start than against the Bears.

QUARTERBACK : Aaron Rodgers was the #2 fantasy quarterback in 2014 with 4381 pass yards and 38 passing touchdowns. He enters his 12th season and has averaged almost 34 passing touchdowns when he plays all 16 games. Rodgers ravaged the Bears in 2014, throwing for 302 yards and four scores in Chicago and later 315 yards and six touchdowns at home.

RUNNING BACK : Eddie Lacy brought high production and stability to the backfield since 2013 and rightfully claims a spot in the upper echelon of NFL running backs. He doesn’t turn in monster games and only topped 100 rush yards three times in 2014 – never more than 105 yards. But he never has a bad game either since he adds about 20 to 30 yards as a receiver and scores in most games. He is also one of the rare workhorse backs. Rush yards, receptions or touchdowns – at least one will be good every week if not all three.

Lacy only ran for 48 yards and one score in Chicago last year and added only one catch for 11 yards.

WIDE RECEIVER : The loss of Jordy Nelson immediately made Randall Cobb a red hot commodity in fantasy drafts. The fifth-year wideout comes off a career best 91-1287-12 last year so he likely cannot get much more busy. Especially given the increased coverage he no doubt receives from now on. Davante Adams was a second round pick last year and turned in 38-446-3 but included two 100 yard games with one being against the Cowboys (7-117-1) during the playoffs. He immediately became a starter with Nelson out and his fantasy stock reflects the higher expectations.

The third spot is not firm yet but third round pick Ty Montgomery is most likely to see work. Jeff Janis has not been nearly as impressive but this crew could evolve as the season progresses. The Packers just signed James Jones and he already knows the offense. He’ll figure in sooner than later though I am holding him out of the projections for this week. It is very possible that he becomes the #3 and at the least he’ll make it a rotation with Montgomery. Cobb injured his shoulder in the preseason but is expected to be back for this week.

Jordy Nelson turned in 10-108-2 and 6-152-2 in the two meeting with the Bears last year. Cobb turned in 113 yards and two scores in Chicago and later had 72 yards and one score at home. No other wideouts had more than 18 yards in either game.

TIGHT END : There is mild optimism that the second-year Richard Rodgers could emerge this season. He was the third round pick last year and ended with a 20-225-2 stat line.The Packers have not used the tight end much in recent years but the loss of Nelson is likely to end up with at least a marginal increase of passes to this position.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: The Bears are all new this year with schemes and coaches and should be ripe for a solid win by the Packers. This was one of the worst defenses in the league anyway and the Packers scored 94 points on them over their two meetings. No need to break anything down. Rodgers, Lacy, Cobb, Adams and even Rodgers are all starts this week with the expectation of a big season opener.

Gaining Fantasy Points GB 2 14 3 25 4 2
Preventing Fantasy Points CHI 31 20 24 31 32 27

Chicago Bears

1 GB —— 10 @STL ——
2 ARI —— 11 DEN ——
3 @SEA —— 12 @GB ——
4 OAK —— 13 SF ——
5 @KC —— 14 WAS ——
6 @DET —— 15 @MIN ——
7 BYE —— 16 @TB ——
8 MIN —— 17 DET ——
9 @SD ——  
News | Statistics | Roster
CHI vs GB Rush Catch Pass
QB Jay Cutler 240,2
WR Alshon Jeffery 3-30
WR Eddie Royal 5-70,1
TE Rob Housler 1-10
PK Robbie Gould 1 FG 2 XP

The Bears are back to a team-wide makeover with John Fox and Adam Gase bringing a more balanced scheme for the offense and Vic Fangio trying to fix one of the worst defenses in the league. Fantasy leaguers enjoyed the unfettered passing of Marc Trestman’s offense that resulted in Matt Forte catching an astounding 102 passes last year. The Bears need upgrades in almost every area so it will take time for the new schemes to take hold and get the right personnel. Drafting Kevin White was a great move up until he was lost for at least half the year if not through next season. But there will be fantasy value here still even without Brandon Marshall.

QUARTERBACK : Jay Cutler enters his seventh season with the Bears and seemingly the team begrudgingly decides to keep him during a secret annual meeting. He had a big 2014 – 3812 yards and 28 touchdowns for his best effort since his days back in Denver. Cutler passed for 256 yards and two scores when the Packers visited last year. He later had 272 yards and one score in Green Bay.

RUNNING BACK : Matt Forte turned in a league leading 102 catches last year and still posted his third straight 1000 rushing yard season. Forte turned 30 this year but has not shown signs of slowing down much though he only ran for 3.9 yards per carry in 2014. A poor offensive line was no help and the Trestman offense was too busy passing anyway. Forte will be tasked with a more traditional role as a runner under Gase though his receptions will not disappear. They just won’t be as jaw-dropping this year. The hope is that Forte can hold on for one more big year since the only other options are Jacquizz Rodgers and the rookie Jeremy Langford.

Forte rushed for 122 yards and added 49 receiving yards when the Packers showed up last year.

WIDE RECEIVER : It is truly unfortunate that the 1.07 pick last April won’t be seen until mid-season at the earliest and perhaps not all this year. Kevin White suffered a stress fracture to his shin and required surgery. He would have replaced Brandon Marshall but now Eddie Royal steps up and could be a surprise as the #2 in this offense. While Alshon Jeffery remains firmly the top receiver on the team, Royal started out his career in Denver when when Jay Cutler was the quarterback there. His best season was as a rookie in Denver when he ended with 91-980-5.

Marquess Wilson will be the #3 but injured his hamstring in the second preseason game and may not be 100% for this week. Jeffery also injured his calf earlier but is expected to be fine to play. He only managed 39 yards on four catches with one score in this meeting last year. Brandon Marshall scored in both games but was held to only 19 yards in the first meeting.

TIGHT END : After two seasons in Chicago, Martellus Bennett has become a major part of the offense and could easily end up as the #2 receiver this year thanks to the departure of Brandon Marshall and the injury of Kevin White. Bennett already posted a 90-916-6 stat line in 2013 and now plays for the same coaches who made Julius Thomas a fantasy star.

Bennett rolled up 134 yards on nine catches versus the visiting Packers last year.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: The Packers defense is nothing special but neither has been the Bears offense. Installing a whole new scheme and missing Brandon Marshall means it will take a bit of time to show progress and going against the offensive juggernaut of the Packers doesn’t help. Forte, Jeffery and Bennett are must starts every week and Cutler deserves consideration this week playing at home and most likely playing from behind. Royal is also a consideration but it is safer to at least get a one week picture of his impact before using him in a fantasy lineup.

Gaining Fantasy Points CHI 11 19 17 10 32 16
Preventing Fantasy Points GB 23 15 20 11 6 10

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