BUMPS, BRUISES AND BOWOUTS

Week 3 was all about big scoring games from the running backs and wide receivers while tight ends quietly became the unproductive position again. After three games, there is still a lot of changes to sort through and players to welcome back.

Sorry Antonio, the bell tolls for Le’Veon

Week 3 witnessed the return of Le’Veon Bell and just in time to see Ben Roethlisberger leave for a month or more with a sprained knee.  As expected, Bell picked right up from 2014 and turned in 19 carries for 62 yards and one touchdown plus added seven receptions for 70 more yards. But replacing Roethlisberger with Michael Vick is certain to have an impact on the fantasy stars of the Steelers. Antonio Brown already totals 29 catches for 436 yards and two scores after just three weeks. But of the six passes thrown by Vick, he had just one incompletion for Brown. But Big Ben’s absence may actually benefit Bell. Vick threw three completions for 27 yards to him and with less chemistry with the wide receivers, is likely to continue to rely on his running back as a quick outlet.

Consider too that Brown will not have Roethlisberger when he faces the Ravens, Chargers, Cardinals, Chiefs and possibly the Bengals. Brown owners have reason to worry.

E Pluribus Unum  

The NFL is rife with running back committees and many fantasy starters cannot meet expectations thanks to being just one of many runners that their team uses.  Running backs like Lamar Miller, LeSean McCoy, C.J. Anderson and Alfred Morris were taken as fantasy starters but have seen their values plummet from a lack of carries and catches.

Rashad Jennings, Shane Vereen and Andre Williams have taken turns as the Giants’ best fantasy back for the week. The same is true for the Titans who spun through Bishop Sankey, Dexter McCluster and Antonio Andrews as “the guy”.  The Redskins churned through Alfred Morris, Matt Jones and Chris Thompson as their weekly best producers as well.

Backfield committees are tough enough when a team is consistent with the distribution of work. 2015 keeps serving up more confusion except for one category – when a running back is injured and they just load up on the “next guy”.

Consider the loss of Tevin Coleman for the Falcons allowed Devonta Freeman to explode in Dallas with 35 touches for 193 yards and three scores. When DeMarco Murray was scratched for the Eagles, Ryan Mathews turned in 27 touches for 128 yards and a touchdown in the win over the Jets. Chris Ivory did not play in that same game so Bilal Powell handled all but two carries and ended with 75 yards on ten rushes and caught seven passes for  44 more yards.  Chris Johnson took over when Andre Ellington was injured and comes off a win over the 49ers with 150 total yards and two touchdowns.
Committees are here to stay but injuries often force teams to limit the normally shared workload to one running back. And that’s the guy you want in your lineup.

Welcome Back

Le’Veon Bell wasn’t the only player who returned to prominence in Week 3. LeGarrette Blount was little used in Week 2 but reassumes his role as the main rusher for the Patriots. He ran for 78 yards and scored three touchdowns all from the one-yard line. Todd Gurley had an inauspicious debut with only nine yards on six carries and he’ll slowly ramp up his workload. But he’ll come off a Week 6 bye to play in home games against the Browns, 49ers and Bears. Mike Evans also gained 101 yards on seven catches in the loss to the Texans after being blanked in Week 2 when he had a minimal role.

Week 4 may see two more fantasy veterans return. Arian Foster had a smooth recovery from his groin surgery and may be active for the first time.  The Texans desperately need the production and balance he brings to the offense. And Victor Cruz has already said he will be suiting up for the Bills game this weekend. He’ll need time to reintegrate and his knee surgery may not allow him to return to the same form. But Cruz offers a   complement for Odell Beckham and helps an offense that is slowly improving.

Free Agent Fizzle

After Week 3, the reality is that there won’t be any hot free agent pickups unless there is an NFL injury that promotes a new player into the starting lineup or a team owner in your league drops a player he should have kept. Both will be happening this season.  But those will mostly be related to the size of your league and rosters. And how many unwise owners you have. Pay attention to changes in the NFL for opportunities.

Josh McCown returned for the Browns and he gave tight end Gary Barnridge a career best game of 105 yards and a touchdown. That’s certainly just a freak good game. But what is worth noting is that with Johnny Manziel as the starter, Brian Hartline only totaled two catches over two games. But with McCown, he reeled in five passes for 96 yards. The Browns acquired him to become a possession receiver that Manziel was unable to use.

The Giants also needed someone to step up besides Odell Beckham and made a concerted effort to involve Rueben Randle against the Redskins.  He responded with a career best seven catches for 116 yards and one score. Victor Cruz is returning but comes off a significant knee injury. Randle can remain a big weapon and pay off in the future for the Giants. Consider after facing the Bills this week, Randle faces the 49ers, Eagles, Cowboys, Saints and Buccaneers.

 Charles Clay also deserves consideration for your tight end depth now that he’s scored in the last two games and comes off a five catch, 82-yard effort in Miami. Granted he was motivated facing his old team but he is a red zone weapon and one of the most targeted receivers for the Bills.

No need to get comfortable yet

After the tight end scoring frenzy in Week 1 that set the NFL record of 22 touchdowns scored, the position is suddenly quiet. Week 3 only witnessed seven scores from six different tight ends and those from Charles Clay, Gary Barnridge and Clay Harbor were not likely in a fantasy lineup. The wide receivers are the fantasy studs again with six different players turning in two touchdowns and at least 110 receiving yards each.  Seven different running backs also scored at least twice despite Week 2 only serving up just two rushers with multiple scores.  Week 4 is when offenses start to become more predictable.

Bye Week Defenses and Kickers

Smaller rosters often mean carrying just one defense and one kicker.  This week the Patriots and Titans are the only teams out and that will affect the many Stephen Gostkowski and Patriots defense owners. Considerations for defenses that are likely still on your waiver wire include the Raiders (at Chicago), Saints (versus Cowboys) and Chargers (versus Browns). For kickers,   the better bets are Mike Nugent (versus Chiefs), Graham Gano (at Tampa Bay) and Chandler Cantanzaro (versus Rams).

Rookie Wideout Report

There is little doubt that Amari Cooper is already the best rookie receiver this year. But other wideouts are starting to show up at least enough to suggest that better games are likely just down the road.

DeVante Parker (Dolphins) – After just one pass over the first two weeks, Parker was targeted seven times against the Bills and ended with three catches for 46 yards. That still lagged Rishard Matthews and Jarvis Landry but more importantly he dominated the rotation that includes Kenny Stills and Greg Jennings.

Nelson Agholor (Eagles) – Though targeted as much as any wideouts besides Jordan Matthews, Agholor failed to catch any of his four passes versus the Jets. The Eagles passing offense is struggling under Sam Bradford and there is no positive changes expected soon.

Philip Dorsett (Colts) – He scored his first NFL touchdown in Tennessee but remains locked behind T.Y. Hilton, Donte Moncrief and Andre Johnson. He’ll remain too little used to consider for a fantasy start.

Devin Smith (Jets) – The blazing fast speedster from Ohio State had his NFL debut in Week 3 when he turned in three catches for 39 yards. But worth noting here is that he received nine targets in the game. He needs to be on fantasy rosters as depth since the talented rookie will figure in this year.

Dorial Green-Beckham (Titans) – He was dropped from many rosters when he was never thrown a pass in Week 1. But he’s scored in each of the last two games and is already becoming a preferred end zone target with “what push-off?” skills as he uses his 6-5 frame.  His yardage remains low but touchdowns always help fantasy value.

Devin Funchess (Panthers) – Though he has arguably the best situation of all rookie wide receivers, Funchess remains well below any fantasy value. He’s been stuck at just one catch per week.

SUNDAY SNIPPETS

HUDDLE PLAYER OF THE WEEK

A.J. Green – He’s been mostly quiet so far this year but Green blew up for 10 catches for 227 yards and two scores that beat the Ravens in Baltimore. The rushing offense lagged against a good defense but at least Green is at his best when they need him the most.

Salute!

DRAMA 101 – SOMEBODY HAS TO LAUGH, SOMEBODY HAS TO CRY

Sunday’s Couch Commentary

Not as many upsets as Week 2 but there was an odd mixture of very low scoring games and a few point bonanzas. Three weeks in and we have just seven teams that are still undefeated and for that are still searching for their first win. Of 16 teams in the NFC, only six have winning records. The Cardinals and Packers already appear to be the class of the conference while the AFC is juggling the Patriots, Bengals and Broncos as the upper tier.

The Game-O-The-Week?

Colts 35, Titans 33

What a great game!

Andrew Luck still had two interceptions but threw for 260 yards and two scores. Frank Gore finally got into gear and ran for 86 yards and two touchdowns. T.Y. Hilton only caught four passes but gained 94 yards thanks to a 48-yard reception. Donte Moncrief still scored once but had only 43 yards while the rookie Philip Dorsett (2-43, TD) had his first NFL touchdowns. Adam Vinatieri only had five extra points in his quest to end up as the worst kicker that everyone wanted to draft.

Marcus Mariota threw for 367 yards and two scores with Kendall Wright (7-95, TD) and Delaine Walker (7-68) as the best receivers. The two rushing scores of course went to Antonio Andrews (12-49, TD) and little known rookie full back Jalston Fowler (4-9, TD).

The Titans led this 27-14 entering the fourth quarter but Luck engineered two long touchdown drives and an interception was returned to the Titans 11-yard line that led to the Moncrief score. The Colts had a chance to tie but missed the two point conversion.

Andrew Luck and Peyton Manning are back (mostly) and many stars of 2014 are showing up again. The loss of Ben Roethlisberger will be huge for the Steelers and Antonio Brown owners. Injuries mix up fantasy lineups and add a bigger challenge but they also offer opportunities for other players. We are not returning to 2014 but at least we’re starting to understand what 2015 is going to be about. The teams are settling down and offenses becoming either clearer or at least so notoriously confusing and unproductive that there is no temptation to get involved.

And then someone else will get injured and the bad will get better and the good will get worse.

And that is the consistency.

Now get back to work…