Predictions Summary Projections by Position Projection Team Boxes

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Prediction: CAR 24, TB 16 (Line: CAR by 3)

UPDATE: Doug Martin is listed as questionable and was held out of practice on Thursday but returned for limited work on Friday. He is still expected to play. Martin tweaked his knee in practice on Wednesday.

The 3-0 Panthers head out on their last game before the Week 5 bye and look to take down their next divisional opponent. The 1-3 Buccaneers return home looking to also go 2-0 in the division. Since neither team are the Saints (who they both beat), this has to favor the Panthers over the rookie quarterback.

The Panthers swept the Buccaneers last season. They won 20-14 on the road and 19-17 at home.

The rushing effort with Jonathan Stewart is no where near as good as what happened in the second half of the 2014 season but there is a lot of that going around. Cam Newton continues to provide consistently good fantasy points each week but only Greg Olsen offers any significant production. The defense still has not faced a great offense and that won’t change in this game.

QUARTERBACK : Cam Newton is back to stealing rushing touchdowns and still throwing for two scores each week. The yardage is moderate and there is no star receiver aside from Greg Olsen lately. But Newton’s rushing score each week is helping the team and fantasy value. Newton has the only rushing touchdowns for the team.

RUNNING BACK : Jonathan Stewart’s big year could not be more mediocre. Through three games, he’s remained between 52 and 65 rushing yards, has nearly no role as a receiver and has yet to score. Oh, and that includes two home games and weaker opponents than those in the future. Stewart injured his leg in the win over the Saints but continued to play. He is expected to be fine for this contest.

WIDE RECEIVER : Not much happen here. Kelvin Benjamin’s production is not being replaced by any receiver or by all of the receivers. Jerricho Cotchery was a scratch last week with a high ankle sprain and will miss this week as well. Devin Funchess still only catches one pass per week and never in the end zone. Philly Brown scored once in Week 2 but then had no catches last week. Tedd Ginn comes off a four-catch, 93 yard effort over the Saints but he’s been staying around 50 yards per game otherwise. Not a strong unit by any measure but the occasional touchdowns ends up here.

TIGHT END : Greg Olsen was lagging the other elite tight ends this year until Week 3 when he exploded with eight catches for 134 yards and two touchdowns. That came from 11 targets but he had 14 targets in the win over the Texans when he caught six passes for 70 yards. HE remains the primary receiver for the Panthers.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: The Buccaneers main weakness is against the run but Stewart doesn’t get the goal line calls and he is one the road. He’ll offer moderate yardage but he’s hard to count on for a score, especially in a road game. Cam Newton is a must start here as is Olsen. The Bucs rank well against tight ends but have yet to face any top player in the position. They’ve already allowed two 100 yard receivers but none of the wideouts here are worth considering.

The win in New Orleans wasn’t as hard as previous years but still – a win is a win. But the concern is still that the offense remains stuck at two touchdowns or less each week and only managed one in the loss in Houston. The rushing effort has offered very little support but the return of Mike Evans at least promises better games soon. The Buccaneers will be keeping kicker Kyle Brindza at least for now. He missed three field goals and an extra point last week in a game that they lost by ten points..

QUARTERBACK : While Jameis Winston has yet to produce a big game, he has been at least good every week and scored at least once. He ran in a touchdown in New Orleans and tossed two touchdowns in the only home game so far. Winston is taking time as would be expected and while he isn’t yet a fantasy starter, he’s not had a bad game yet. His worst effort so far still produced 207 yards and a touchdown.

RUNNING BACK : Doug Martin has yet to score this year and hasn’t rushed for more than 78 yards. He sports a 3.8 yard rushing average that looks curiously like 2014 stats. He has a minimal role as a receiver so the lack of scoring leaves him as only a mediocre start every week. Charles Sims scored on a nice catch and run last week for the only touchdown by a running back this season. Sims still gets about 1:2 of the carries that Martin does and all the receiving action. But neither back offers more than a marginal fantasy start every week.

WIDE RECEIVER : Mike Evans finally had the green light and turned it up in Week 3. He caught seven of his 17 targets for 101 yards in his first receptions for the year. Vincent Jackson (2-40) slipped another notch down. This unit has just one score – Jackson in New Orleans in Week 2. And the production has been moderate at best until Evans finally was able to play.

TIGHT END : Austin Seferian-Jenkins remains out for the next month with a shoulder injury and Brandon Myers replaced him with only three catches for 18 yards. ASJ had a big opener with 110 yards and two scores and this week is the first time the Bucs are back in Tampa Bay. But Myers is not more than a blocking tight end filling in for now.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: The Panthers defense has been solid this year in every category and no reason to expect the young Buccaneers to change that. They have allowed just five touchdowns over three weeks total. None of the Buccaneers are an attractive start other than Mike Evans. It is a home game though so at least Martin and Jackson carry some upside.

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