Predictions Summary Projections by Position Projection Team Boxes

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Prediction: DET 20, KC 24 (Line: KC by 6)

This is yet another London game so set the alarm for way too early on Sunday morning. The 1-6 Lions are 0-3 in road games and get to try a new offensive coordinator. The 2-5 Chiefs come off a win but are only 1-3 away from home. This should be a close game with both teams struggling. Hard to ever favor the Lions away from Detroit but this does pit the worst secondary against Calvin Johnson and that has to count.

Joe Lombardi was fired after the loss to the Vikings and the new offensive coordinator will be Jim Bob Cooter who sports one of the greatest names in all of coaching though he should more appropriately be with the Cowboys or Texans. Cooter was the quarterbacks coach and he’ll seek to get Matt Stafford more successful though he won’t be able to fabricate an offensive line that can block. HC Jim Caldwell is expected to take a heavy hand in the play calling as well. While playing in London is never easy on a team, at least Cooter gets to start out against one of the worst secondaries in the NFL.

QUARTERBACK : Matt Stafford injured his non-throwing hand in the loss to the Vikings but the x-rays were negative and it is not expected to be an issue. He continued to play with it last Sunday though he wore a glove. Stafford was battered last week with seven sacks but he’s remained good for at least one score in all but the Seahawks game. Stafford has drawn almost nothing but good defenses this year and his lone soft spot on the schedule resulted in 405 yards and four scores against the Bears. A new play caller will make it harder to forecast what Stafford will do this week though the matchup is about as good as it gets.

RUNNING BACK : This rushing unit has been weak all year and no one has run for more than 50 yards in a game. Ameer Abdullah is the primary back but never rushes the ball more than 14 times in a game and usually remains below 10 carries with only one or two catches. Joique Bell took his old job back after Zach Zenner was lost for the year but he carries no fantasy value. Theo Riddick rarely runs and even his reception totals have been hard hit these last two weeks with never more than three catches. New play calling might help but the blocking has been much too poor for any runner to stand a chance of making much happen.

WIDE RECEIVER : The change in offensive coordinator was made in part because of the down year that Calvin Johnson has experienced though in fairness the Lions have faced many of the best defenses. Johnson recorded just one 100 yard effort and scored three times on the year. The second half of the year will go against a lighter slate of defenses but a few tough challenges still lie ahead. Golden Tate has all but disappeared considering how well he played in 2014. Tate only scored once all year and averages just 45 yards per game. He turned in just two catches for 14 yards in the loss to the Vikings last week. Lance Moore scored in both Week 5 and Week 6 and even topped 100 yards in the Bears tilt. But he followed that up with zero catches last week.

The change in offensive coordinator may not help the wideouts but it cannot hurt them.

TIGHT END : Eric Ebron is quietly having a great second season.  He scored in each of his first two games, caught four passes for 61 yards in the loss to the Broncos and then injured his knee in Week 4. He returned on Sunday to face the Vikings and led the team with five receptions for 89 yards and one touchdown.  So long as he is healthy, he’s been productive every week even against great defenses.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: The Chiefs have always allowed a score and 250+ yards to every quarterback. Stafford should end up with a couple of scores here with a shot at three depending how the always hard to forecast London venue goes. The Chiefs have been solid against the run and nothing the Lions are bringing is even average on a good day. Expect the same mediocrity from Ameer Abdullah though a change in play calling could be positive. The Chiefs rank dead last versus wide receivers and three have produced multiple scores against them. Consider Johnson a must start and even Golden Tate has a chance at a good week. He’s worth the risk this week versus a bad secondary that might not know what to prepare for since the play calling is going to change.

The Chiefs were able to get their first non-Charles win but it was at home and the Steelers were still without a full crew. For at least one week, the rushing offense was adequate and the Chiefs managed to notch a win even without Jeremy Maclin. The bye week comes after this week and gives the Chiefs more time to adjust to life after Jamal. This London game takes up one of the home game slots and means the Chiefs will only be at Arrowhead Stadium once over the next six weeks.

QUARTERBACK : Nothing new in the world of Alex Smith. He thrown no more than one touchdown in the last six games along with moderate yardage. To his credit he has not turned the ball over since Week 3 but the Chiefs are usually sunk when they fall behind because there is no way to catch up quickly in this dink-n-dunk offense.

RUNNING BACK : Charcandrick West comes off a surprisingly good effort in the win over the Steelers. He rushed for 110 yards and one touchdown on 22 carries and added two receptions for 19 yards. More importantly, Knile Davis only one carry in the game. This is clearly all about West for the near future and he is complementing the ball-control offense. For fantasy purposes, having any back take nearly every touch for a backfield is as rare as it is valuable.

WIDE RECEIVER : Jeremy Maclin cleared the concussion protocols late last week but was still held out of the win over the Steelers. He should be good to go this week but his status will be tracked since the Chiefs did not feel like he was ready to play despite the clearance. His absence allowed the rookie Chris Conley (6-63) to record his first touchdown and even Albert Wilson ended with 71 yards on three catches for a season high. The passing game revolves around Maclin and Travis Kelce, so any progress made with other receivers is a major plus for this offense. I’ll assume a fully healthy Maclin plays and update if needed.

TIGHT END : Travis Kelce turns in decent catches and yards nearly every week and finished the win over the Steelers with five catches for 73 yards. But he hasn’t scored since the season opener and averages around 65 yards per week. That’s good for a tight end but never great.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: The Lions may be changing up their offense but the same defense will be playing in London. The one that allowed one to three scores to every opposing quarterback along with healthy yardage. The same defense that has allowed seven different rushers to score this year including two-touchdown games by both Danny Woodhead and David Johnson. While you can never rely on more than a moderate game by Alex Smith, this will be a nice chance to use West, Maclin and especially Kelce. The Lions have allowed five scores to tight ends and yet have not faced any as good as Kelce. This should be his first score in seven weeks.

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