Game Predictions & Player Projections - GB vs. DEN

Game Predictions & Player Projections - GB vs. DEN


Game Predictions & Player Projections - GB vs. DEN


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Prediction: GB 23, DEN 20 (Line: GB by 2.5)

UPDATE: Ty Montgomery has not practiced this week and is not expected to play despite being listed as only questionable. Davante Adams had limited practices this week but then had a full day on Friday and is expected to return from his ankle injury. I am swapping Adams and Montgomery in the projections. Facing the #1 secondary is not a great time to return but it is good to see Adams back since Montgomery wasn’t effective.

Here’s something that is pretty rare to see – two 6-0 teams facing each other after both were on their bye. This is the late game on Sunday.This game is going to be fascinating but may end up to be low scoring considering what both teams have historically been able to do. The Packers offense has been much less productive for the last three games but the defense has been great. The Broncos weren’t prolific in any game this year but they sport the best pass defense. The Packers haven’t rushed well and the passing offense already has taken a step down for several weeks. This could go either way but the Packers have done more on offense than the Broncos and bring a very good defense. We just have to hope that it is not the defenses that control this game – though they probably will.

Green Bay Packers

1 @CHI 31-23 10 DET ——
2 SEA 27-17 11 @MIN ——
3 KC 38-28 12 CHI ——
4 @SF 17-3 13 @DET ——
5 STL 24-10 14 DAL ——
6 SD 27-20 15 @OAK ——
7 BYE —— 16 @ARI ——
8 @DEN —— 17 MIN ——
9 @CAR ——  
News | Statistics | Roster
GB @ DEN Rush Catch Pass
QB Aaron Rodgers 30 260,2
RB Eddie Lacy 40 2-10
RB James Starks 40 3-30,1
WR Davante Adams 3-40
WR Randall Cobb 4-30
WR James Jones 6-60
TE Jared Cook 3-20
TE Richard Rodgers 5-40,1
PK Mason Crosby 3 FG 2 XP

The Packers win games by good margins every week – never less than seven points. But the defense has become the bigger strength recently and playing at home has also been a factor in keeping the unbeaten streak alive. But Aaron Rodgers has fallen from great to merely good and the rushing effort has sputtered all season. The next two games – at Denver and at Carolina- will be the biggest tests so far this year.

QUARTERBACK : Aaron Rodgers is still throwing well enough – he’s managed multiple touchdowns in all but one game and his 15 touchdowns go against just two interceptions. But he’s cooled since Week 3 and only thrown five touchdowns over the last three games with never more than 255 passing yards. Not bad per se, but certainly not worthy of being the first or second quarterback taken in every fantasy draft.

RUNNING BACK : Eddie Lacy started the season well enough with around 100 yards and one score. But he hasn’t registered any touchdowns since and remained well below 50 rush yards in all but one game. Over the last two games – both at home – he totaled only 17 carries for 30 yards while James Starks finally went off during the Chargers win when he ran for 112 yards and one score on just 10 carries. This will be a committee backfield until one of them clearly outplays the other. HC Mike McCarthy suggested that Lacy has been banged up but he’s not been on the injury report.

WIDE RECEIVER : This is where the decline has been. James Jones continues to supply scores and leads the Packers with six touchdowns. His yardage varies from week to week but he’s only turned in one game without a touchdown and that was when he caught five passes for 98 yards. But Randall Cobb was great through the first three weeks when he had a total of four touchdowns and solid yardage. But in the three games since he’s not scored or gained more than 44 yards. He has been hampered by a shoulder injury and that got rest over the bye week. But he is also the focus of the secondary this year since Jordy Nelson is gone for the year and Jones is not nearly the same threat.

Cobb’s decline is not going to be helped playing in Denver and then Carolina over the next two weeks.

TIGHT END : Richard Rodgers still has not topped 45 yards in any game though he did score twice this season. He’s nothing more than a weak bye week filler.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: This is the toughest secondary in the NFL and the best that the Packers have yet faced – on the road no less. The Broncos have not allowed any quarterback to throw for 300 yards and after six games they have allowed only five passing touchdowns. Randall Cobb will match on CB Aqib Talib and he’s been underperforming for the last three weeks anyway. But the reality here is that the Broncos have not faced any top quarterbacks. Matthew Stafford only threw for one score but he had 282 passing yards. The Broncos also are great against the run but have allowed six touchdowns to running backs. Which running back here would score is no longer clear. The Packers won’t post a ton of points or gain a lot of yardage but Rodgers is still worth a start with moderate expectations and there is a chance for a rushing score as well.

Gaining Fantasy Points GB 4 25 4 21 13 8
Preventing Fantasy Points DEN 1 16 2 19 2 24

Denver Broncos

1 BAL 19-13 10 KC ——
2 @KC 31-24 11 @CHI ——
3 @DET 24-12 12 NE ——
4 MIN 23-20 13 @SD ——
5 @OAK 16-10 14 OAK ——
6 @CLE 26-23 15 @PIT ——
7 BYE —— 16 CIN ——
8 GB —— 17 SD ——
9 @IND ——  
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
RB C.J. Anderson 30 3-20
RB Ronnie Hillman 50 2-10
WR Emmanuel Sanders 7-80,1
WR Demaryius Thomas 9-100
PK Brandon McManus 2 FG 2 XP

Odd that a Peyton Manning led team would be known for great defense and mediocre offense. But the Gary Kubiak scheme just has not come close to the success of the last few years. No part of the offense is excelling and only a soft schedule has allowed the Broncos to remain unbeaten. That includes three point wins over the Vikings and Browns. This week will be the biggest test so far but overall the schedule still remains very soft in almost every week.

QUARTERBACK : It is almost inconceivable that Peyton Manning has been this bad. After posting five touchdowns in Weeks 2 and 3, Manning has declined sharply. He threw for only 213 yards and one score at home versus the Vikings. When Manning played in Oakland in 2014, he left with 340 yards and five touchdowns. In Week 5, he only threw for 266 yards and no touchdowns with two interceptions. Week 6 saw the Browns hold him to just one touchdown on his 290 yards passing and intercepted him three times. Manning threw just seven scores this year and yet tossed ten interceptions.

RUNNING BACK : Ronnie Hillman comes off his second 100 yard effort of the year and he’s scored both of the touchdowns that the Broncos running backs have tallied. Hillman is the starting running back at least in the sense that he gets more touches lately and certainly does more with them than C.J. Anderson. He has never rushed for more than 50 yards in this new offense. The committee is going to exist all year but Hillman is taking a primary role. But even he played four games where he failed to total more than 45 yards.

WIDE RECEIVER : Emmanuel Sanders injured his shoulder in Week 6 but it was not considered serious and he’s had two weeks to let it heal. The expectation is that his shoulder will not be an issue but practice time this week will determine his status. Demaryius Thomas is the primary receiver each week and already totals 75 targets over just six games. He’s only scored once this year but four of the last five games have produced over 90 yards. No other wideouts matter here and none have scored. A serious lack of touchdowns undermines the fantasy value which would otherwise be healthy for Thomas and Sanders since they dominate the passing offense.

TIGHT END : No fantasy value.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: The Packers defense has been almost as good as the Broncos until Week 6 when Philip Rivers posted 503 yards but only two touchdowns on them. The Packers have also not faced any top quarterbacks but Manning no longer qualifies. The Packers have not allowed more than two passing scores to any opponent and Manning hasn’t thrown more than that against anyone. The Packers have been weaker against running backs but there are no top runners here. Manning is a low end start here but has spent two weeks preparing. Expect the moderate stats from the rushing game again this week. Sanders and Thomas are must start regardless and Sanders in particular is playing the weaker side.

Gaining Fantasy Points DEN 30 30 13 27 2 1
Preventing Fantasy Points GB 13 11 9 22 4 1

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