Predictions Summary Projections by Position Projection Team Boxes

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Prediction: MIA 24, NE 37 (Line: NE by 7.5)

This game has taken a much different look after the last two weeks. The 3-3 Dolphins are on a two game winning streak while cranking out 82 points in those games. The unbeaten Patriots won their last two by only a touchdown and survived a home scare from the Jets last week. The Pats at home are very hard to bet against but the Dolphins are undeniably playing much better since they dumped their head coach. This is the Thursday game and one that should be well worth watching.

These rivals traded home wins last year. The Dolphins won 33-20 in Miami and the Patriots won 41-13 in New England.

The Dolphins look vastly improved with their new coaching situation and while firing a coach tends to stop the dissatisfaction and focus the locker room, that doesn’t usually turn into two big wins. A dose of reality also says they were facing the 1-5 Titans and the 2-5 Texans who eventually lost Arian Foster. The final two games with Joe Philbin went against the Bills and Jets defenses. But there has been undeniable progress made and confidence built With four road games over the next five weeks, that sense of betterment will be tested.

QUARTERBACK : Ryan Tannehill comes off his season best game – 282 yards and four scores in the win over the visiting Texans. He’s thrown for two or more scores in every game since the season opener and only the Jets matchup brought down his yardage. This week will be only his second game against a team with a winning record and the only other one was the Jets which led to Philbin’s firing.

RUNNING BACK : Lamar Miller went from abject mediocrity to being a star for the last two weeks. He turned in 113 yards and a score in Tennessee. He followed that up with 175 yards and a score on just 14 carries and added three receptions for 61 yards and a second touchdown on the day. Miller claims it came from him getting the ball more consistently but he only had 14 carries last week against a Texans team that is imploding. At the least, his success will ensure that the Dolphins continue to feed him the ball.

Worthy side note – Jay Ajayi is expected to be back on the active roster in Week 9 and he’ll compete for the #2 job that neither Damien Williams nor Jonas Gray has managed to secure. At the least he’s a worthy handcuff for the Miller owner who suddenly has a back worth insuring.

WIDE RECEIVER : The season started with what seemed to be a glut of talented wideouts but that’s really never been more than just Jarvis Landry and Rishard Matthews. DeVante Parker, Greg Jennings and Kenny Stills all rotate through but carry no real fantasy value. Landry was disappointing as well with only moderate yardage and no scores but in Week 6 he ran in a touchdown and then finally came up big last week with five receptions for 83 yards and his first two receiving scores on the year.

Matthews is the most consistently good fantasy player with a total of four touchdowns and four of his last five games produced at least 75 yards. Tannehill’s success is predicated first on connecting with his two main wide receivers. Kenny Stills caught one score in the Jets game but no other weeks held anything notable outside of Matthews and Landry.

TIGHT END : No fantasy value. Even with the increase in passing success, this unit has been spotty at best. Three different tight ends scored for the Dolphins but they combined for just four touchdowns on the year and rarely break 30 yards in production. Jordan Cameron is the most consistent with yardage but accounts for only one score and mediocre overall yardage.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: By virtue of their leads in every game, the Patriots have allowed all but Brandon Weeden to throw for over 240 yards and at least one score if not two. The rushing defense has been stout though mostly from a lack of volume since opponents lose the luxury of rushing the ball when they fall behind. No opponent has rushed in a touchdown since Week 2. Miller is a must start based on his recent success but he’ll be much more tested this week. The Patriots have also been good preventing any receiver from having a big game against them. Both Matthews and Landry are must starts since the Fins will have to throw and that always goes through them first. No other receivers carry the value or consistency to merit consideration.

The Patriots remain unbeaten and are the favorite to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl again. The defense is only average at best but the offense rolls up an average of 36 points per game and never fewer than 28. The only constant is Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski and then each week someone else takes a turn having a big afternoon. And the reality here is that the schedule has but a few spots where it should be interesting and even then the Pats will be favored.

QUARTERBACK : Despite being only an average fantasy quarterback the last two years, Tom Brady is making the most of 2015. He’s never thrown fewer than two scores and broken 300 yards in four of six starts. Not only does he lead the league with 16 passing touchdowns, but he’s only thrown one interception.

RUNNING BACK : This unit has been inconsistent though mostly they reflect the quality of the defense. Dion Lewis missed last week with an abdomen injury but there is optimism that he can return for Week 8. Lewis totals solid yardage when facing weaker defenses and scored in three different games. LeGarrette Blount was on a three game streak of good production including three touchdowns against the Jaguars and two versus the Colts. But he was held to a three yard loss on three carries last week versus the Jets. The duo is fairly consistent – productive if not great versus average or worse defenses and then mediocre against the better defenses. Fortunately most of the schedule goes against below average teams.

James White replaced Lewis in Week 7 but only totaled 30 yards on five touches.

WIDE RECEIVER : Julian Edelman is the primary wideout and leads the unit with four touchdowns but he’s been held in check the last two weeks. The Jets shadowed him with Darrelle Revis and held him to a season low 54 yards on five catches. Danny Amendola turned in a season high eight catches for 86 yards and a score in the win over the Jets but that was mostly thanks to Edelman being covered. Edelman typically gets more targets than any other player, even more than Rob Gronkowski.

Brandon LaFell finally taken off the PUP list and made active in Week 8 but only managed to catch two of his eight targets with most being outright drops. He was naturally rusty but it was favorable that he had the eight targets in his first game of the season.

TIGHT END : Rob Gronkowski is likely the safest start of any position in the NFL. He’s rolled up six touchdowns over six games played and topped 90 yards four times. He is at home this week and his three previous games there have averaged about seven catches for 100 yards and two touchdowns.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: The Dolphins have already allowed Tyrod Taylor and Brian Hoyer to throw for three touchdowns and Tom Brady is at least that good. Consider three scores and high 200’s in yardage as Brady’s starting point in a game that the Pats will want to win and win big if possible. The Dolphins could give up a rushing score or even two but the Patriots don’t often commit heavily to the run. Brady, Gronkowski and Edelman are always must starts. Lewis and Blount are always risky plays but with upside.

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