Game Predictions & Player Projections - SD vs. BAL

Game Predictions & Player Projections - SD vs. BAL


Game Predictions & Player Projections - SD vs. BAL


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Prediction: SD 30, BAL 27 (Line: BAL by 3)

UPDATE: Melvin Gordon is probable to play and should have no issues from his ankle (now his fumbling may be a different issue). Antonio Gates is listed as questionable but never practiced this week. He’s highly unlikely to play and I am removing him from the projections.

The 2-5 Chargers come off a bad beatdown by the visiting Raiders and are 0-3 in road games. The 1-6 Ravens have yet to win at home and both teams are on a three game losing streak. This has the chance to be a delightfully high scoring game that could go either way. The Chargers won 34-33 in Baltimore last year.

San Diego Chargers

1 DET 33-28 10 BYE ——
2 @CIN 19-24 11 KC ——
3 @MIN 14-31 12 @JAC ——
4 CLE 30-27 13 DEN ——
5 PIT 20-24 14 @KC ——
6 @GB 20-27 15 MIA ——
7 OAK 29-37 16 @OAK ——
8 @BAL —— 17 @DEN ——
9 CHI ——  
News | Statistics | Roster
SD @ BAL Rush Catch Pass
QB Philip Rivers 350,3
RB Melvin Gordon 30
RB Branden Oliver 20 3-20
RB Danny Woodhead 10 6-70
WR Keenan Allen 10-110,2
WR Travis Benjamin 4-50
WR Malcom Floyd 4-60
WR Stevie Johnson 5-60,1
PK Josh Lambo 3 FG 3 XP

The Chargers season is slipping away thanks to a defense that is consistently just a bit worse than the offense is good. No opponent has scored fewer than 24 points and that’s made for a few nice shootouts. The rushing offense is only getting worse and that forces the Chargers to throw 40 or more times in every game. Facing one of the worst secondaries in the league this week only promises even more passes than normal. The beauty of the schedule is that after this, a home stand against the Bears and Chiefs are up next.

QUARTERBACK : Philip Rivers is on a blistering pace. He’s already thrown 15 touchdowns on the season and topped 330 passing yards in each of the last four games plus scored no fewer than two touchdowns. He is on a pace to end with 5600 yards and 34 touchdowns. And all that was while facing better defenses than he will play this weekend.

RUNNING BACK : The Chargers are dialing back on using Melvin Gordon who still has yet to score a touchdown, After losing fumbles in Weeks 5 and 6, Gordon was only given seven carries per game and not even one target. Branden Oliver is playing an equal amount of snaps and taking the catches that were going to Gordon. Danny Woodhead has a minimal role as a rusher but comes off a season best 11 catches for 75 yards and two scores last week. He’s usually good for around 60 yards per week as a receiver thanks to all those passes to distribute.
The Chargers are not even trying to establish the run anymore though game situation usually makes the choice for them.

WIDE RECEIVER : Keenan Allen dominates the targets each week and he;s already turned in three games with more than 130 receiving yards. His 62 catches this year lead the NFL and has a pace that would result in 142 receptions this year. He’s been slowed a couple of times by top defenses but racks up double digit catches in most weeks. Stevie Johnson has not scored since week two and offers just moderate yardage each week at best. He missed two games with a hamstring strain though and settled for just 50 yards on four catches last week. Dontrelle Inman and Malcom Floyd both chip in depending on the need though each have just one score on the season. Allen is the big dog in this pack though Johnson may improve now that he is healthy again.

TIGHT END : Antonio Gates produced back-to-back games of around nine catches for 95 yards in his two games played but injured his MCL and was inactive last week. He could miss multiple games. I will assume he misses Week 8 and update as needed. Gates could do big things if he was to play this week.

Ladarius Green has not replicated the catches and yardage that Gates creates but Green already scored four times this year and three of the last four weeks. He’s been stuck around 50 yards per game but that could rise in weeks like this facing a weaker defense without Gates there.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: Not only have the Ravens allowed 13 passing scores and four 300 yard games to opposing quarterbacks, they weren’t even good quarterbacks. Josh McCown threw for 457 yards and two scores in Baltimore. The Bengals racked up 383 yards and three touchdowns. With a marginal rushing offense and facing one of the worst secondaries, expect big things from Rivers who delivers every week anyway. The Ravens have been great against tight ends but have faced few of the better players at the position. Gates would roll up good stats here but Green is never more than a moderate play hoping for a touchdown. The wide receivers are where the fun should happen this week. Five wideouts have managed around 100 yards versus the Ravens including the 227 yards that A. J. Green turned in there. The Ravens have allowed 11 scored to wide receivers as well. Keenan Allen should have a big game here as have all top wideouts who face them. This could be a good spot for a score for Johnson but Floyd could get in the way.

Gaining Fantasy Points SD 2 11 10 2 15 31
Preventing Fantasy Points BAL 31 13 31 2 32 9

Baltimore Ravens

1 @DEN 13-19 10 JAC ——
2 @OAK 33-37 11 STL ——
3 CIN 24-28 12 @CLE ——
4 @PIT 23-20 13 @MIA ——
5 CLE 30-33 14 SEA ——
6 @SF 20-25 15 KC ——
7 @ARI 18-26 16 PIT ——
8 SD —— 17 @CIN ——
9 BYE ——  
News | Statistics | Roster
BAL vs SD Rush Catch Pass
QB Joe Flacco 260,2
RB Justin Forsett 100,1 4-40
WR Kamar Aiken 5-70
WR Steve Smith 8-100,1
WR Mike Wallace 4-50,1
TE Crockett Gillmore 3-30,1
TE Benjamin Watson 5-50,1
PK Justin Tucker 2 FG 3 XP

The Ravens do not know how to win or lose big. Every game has ended with a touchdown or less as the winning margin. The weak secondary invites a shoot out but Joe Flacco is short the level of talent needed to win most games. Steve Smith provides the big games but gets nearly no help and a tough schedule means that rushing the ball is a luxury that doesn’t usually exist. The bye waits after this game but the second half of the season is no better than the first.

QUARTERBACK : Joe Flacco did well enough passing for nine touchdowns and breaking 300 yards three times this season. He’s been limited to mainly Steve Smith and… Steve Smith. This is a young team that spent a first round pick on a wideout that has yet to be healthy enough to play. The weak defense invites all opponents to score early and often which has forced Flacco to attempt over 40 passes in most games.

RUNNING BACK : Justin Forsett ran for over 100 yards twice this year but only scored twice and failed to become the receiving back that was expected when Marc Trestman took over the offense. Forsett is mostly limited by the amount of carries he gets and only once caught more than four passes in any game. Fullback Kyle Juszcyk caught both of the scores thrown to a running back but has very minimal yardage and catches each week. Forsett gets whatever there is to get but in most games that’s only a moderate amount of yardage.

Javorius Allen is getting a few carries each week but is nothing more than the handcuff for Forsett.

WIDE RECEIVER : There is no middle ground with Steve Smith. He either is held to minimal yardage of he goes off for a huge game. He’s turned in three different games with over 135 yards in each and scored three times over those tilts. But he never scored in the other three contests and failed to reach even 25 yards in the Denver and Pittsburgh games. Smith injured his back in that win over the Steelers and missed Week 5. He returned to gain 137 yards and one score on seven catches in San Francisco. Even with Patrick Peterson on him last week, Smith still had five catches for 78 yards against one of the premiere shutdown corners.

But the only other wideout to help is Kamar Aiken who owns the only other two scores by a wideout this year. Aiken shows up when they face a really weak secondary but last week was held to only one catch for six yards by the Cardinals. Chris Givens was added a few weeks ago in a trade with the Rams to provide a deep threat but so far that’s just been the one 31-yard catch last week.

TIGHT END : The rookie Max Williams has a sprained ankle and missed last week but he’s having a very typical quiet first year. The only tight end of note is Crockett Gillmore but he only scored in one game this year and stays around 40 to 50 yards in a good game. Gillmore ended with 53 yards on five catches last week but most of that came at the end of the game.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: The Chargers are weak against the run and already allowed seven rushing scores plus three more to running backs as receivers. Four different runners have topped 100 rush yards. Expect a nice bounce back game by Forsett since the Ravens will run as much as they can. Crockett Gillmore and Steven Smith have the best shot at scores and Flacco should manage a couple touchdowns with decent yardage that could end up big if the shootout starts early.

Gaining Fantasy Points BAL 20 15 17 15 10 24
Preventing Fantasy Points SD 10 31 6 23 24 28

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